Adam Frazier 2023

[ledzepp8]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

The sample sizes are so small one could argue we don't know what the likely outcome is.  Maybe his clutch stats are his actual level of talent, though admittedly doubtful.  In any event, let's hope that the psychic benefits for him and the fear that pitchers have given his reputation this year in these situations allow the wave to continue!

Or it could be that he's hitting better in clutch situations this year but that being clutch isn't actually a real thing. 

[baltfan]

43 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Or it could be that he's hitting better in clutch situations this year but that being clutch isn't actually a real thing. 

The clutch hitting research is replete with sabermetricians skewing matters to prove it isn't a predictable skill from year to year, so it must not exist in general.  That, however, fails to capture that it can exist for shorter periods over a player's career or even at an individual player level.  Moreover, many times researchers seem to move the bar.  They expect that a player would be not just better than in non-clutch situations but better than the vast majority of players in clutch situations.  

Eddie Murray, e.g., generally throughout the course of his career was statistically better in "clutch" situations than non-clutch situations.  Fans noticed this trend and when they saw him come up in a clutch situation you would think he was more likely to come through than in a normal at-bat.  Is that clutch?  Or is it not clutch unless he was consistently say at the top of the league in clutch situations?  Is a hitter clutch if they perform above average in clutch situations for 2/3 of the seasons in their career?  I guess it all depends on your definition of clutch, but I think most people think of it as a player being better than their normal selves in clutch situations as well as better than the average hitter in those situations.  By that definition, I believe clutch exists.  However, to call someone a clutch hitter doesn't mean that every season they have to be clutch.  Just like if you call someone a great hitter, they can still have some seasons where they aren't so great. 

[ledzepp8]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

The clutch hitting research is replete with sabermetricians skewing matters to prove it isn't a predictable skill from year to year, so it must not exist in general.  That, however, fails to capture that it can exist for shorter periods over a player's career or even at an individual player level.  Moreover, many times researchers seem to move the bar.  They expect that a player would be not just better than in non-clutch situations but better than the vast majority of players in clutch situations.  

Eddie Murray, e.g., generally throughout the course of his career was statistically better in "clutch" situations than non-clutch situations.  Fans noticed this trend and when they saw him come up in a clutch situation you would think he was more likely to come through than in a normal at-bat.  Is that clutch?  Or is it not clutch unless he was consistently say at the top of the league in clutch situations?  Is a hitter clutch if they perform above average in clutch situations for 2/3 of the seasons in their career?  I guess it all depends on your definition of clutch, but I think most people think of it as a player being better than their normal selves in clutch situations as well as better than the average hitter in those situations.  By that definition, I believe clutch exists.  However, to call someone a clutch hitter doesn't mean that every season they have to be clutch.  Just like if you call someone a great hitter, they can still have some seasons where they aren't so great. 

My point is that, while there are clutch situations, there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Good hitters are going to be typically good hitters in any situation, just as bad hitters are going to be bad hitters in any situation. If people really had the ability to be clutch (hit better in certain high leverage situations), then why wouldn't they just hit that way all the time?

[baltfan]

41 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

My point is that, while there are clutch situations, there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Good hitters are going to be typically good hitters in any situation, just as bad hitters are going to be bad hitters in any situation. If people really had the ability to be clutch (hit better in certain high leverage situations), then why wouldn't they just hit that way all the time?

So by your reasoning, if hitters are bad in the clutch, why don't they just hit like they do in non-clutch situations?  Maybe some hitters are better in the clutch because they are better able to focus and slow their heart beat.  Maybe those skills are magnified in the clutch because pitchers have more difficulty with those two things in general in clutch situations.  

Eddie Murray's OPS with runners on was .888 without runner on it was .792.  With the bases loaded his OPS was 1.357.  If you look at all of his clutch stats as defined by Baseball Reference, they are almost uniformly above his other stats.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=murraed02&year=Career&t=b#clutc

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, ledzepp8 said:

My point is that, while there are clutch situations, there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Good hitters are going to be typically good hitters in any situation, just as bad hitters are going to be bad hitters in any situation. If people really had the ability to be clutch (hit better in certain high leverage situations), then why wouldn't they just hit that way all the time?

Adam Frazier has .981 OPS in 190 ABs this year with men on base.  Good enough for me. 

[ledzepp8]

5 hours ago, baltfan said:

So by your reasoning, if hitters are bad in the clutch, why don't they just hit like they do in non-clutch situations?  Maybe some hitters are better in the clutch because they are better able to focus and slow their heart beat.  Maybe those skills are magnified in the clutch because pitchers have more difficulty with those two things in general in clutch situations.  

Eddie Murray's OPS with runners on was .888 without runner on it was .792.  With the bases loaded his OPS was 1.357.  If you look at all of his clutch stats as defined by Baseball Reference, they are almost uniformly above his other stats.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=murraed02&year=Career&t=b#clutc

No, my reasoning is that hitters hit however they hit (good or bad) more or less the same way, no matter the situation. 

Look at Eddie's numbers:

Career: 287 BA 359 OBP 476 SLG 836 OPS

RISP: 292 BA 391 OBP 497 SLG 888 OPS

On 3rd, 2 Out: 293 BA 422 OBP 513 SLG 935 OPS

2 outs, RISP: 262 BA 391 OBP 464 SLG 855 OPS

Late/Close: 282 BA 371 OBP 494 SLG 865 OPS

Tie Game: 290 BA 369 OBP 500 SLG 869 OPS

 

Aside from runner on 3rd with 2 outs, none of those numbers are demonstrably different from his career numbers. 

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, ledzepp8 said:

No, my reasoning is that hitters hit however they hit (good or bad) more or less the same way, no matter the situation. 

Look at Eddie's numbers:

Career: 287 BA 359 OBP 476 SLG 836 OPS

RISP: 292 BA 391 OBP 497 SLG 888 OPS

On 3rd, 2 Out: 293 BA 422 OBP 513 SLG 935 OPS

2 outs, RISP: 262 BA 391 OBP 464 SLG 855 OPS

Late/Close: 282 BA 371 OBP 494 SLG 865 OPS

Tie Game: 290 BA 369 OBP 500 SLG 869 OPS

 

Aside from runner on 3rd with 2 outs, none of those numbers are demonstrably different from his career numbers. 

You didn’t take out his RISP numbers from his career average. His career numbers with no one on were 792. 

[ledzepp8]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

You didn’t take out his RISP numbers from his career average. His career numbers with no one on were 792. 

Didn't realize I should do that...

Can one only flip on the "clutch switch" with runners on or in scoring postion?

[LA2]

Apparently Jordan Westburg doesn't believe in Adam Frazier's clutchness either.

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Didn't realize I should do that...

Can one only flip on the "clutch switch" with runners on or in scoring postion?

Apparently Eddie could, but don’t let the statistics get in your way.  I admit he is a rarity though and in general people that are considered clutch aren’t actually.   But I don’t know why it is hard to believe that some guys can be better than normal in the clutch when you wouldn’t hesitate to say there are guys that choke in the clutch. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Apparently Eddie could, but don’t let the statistics get in your way.  I admit he is a rarity though and in general people that are considered clutch aren’t actually.   But I don’t know why it is hard to believe that some guys can be better than normal in the clutch when you wouldn’t hesitate to say there are guys that choke in the clutch. 

Why can't the clutch guys hit like that all the time?

[RarityFlaherty]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why can't the clutch guys hit like that all the time?

Because sometimes high pressure situations bring out the best in people. 

[Pickles]

Is it possible Frazier as a LH benefits from men on base more because of the 1b covering?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RarityFlaherty said:

Because sometimes high pressure situations bring out the best in people. 

That doesn't make sense.  If you can do it in a nigh pressure situation you should be able to do it all the time.  Maybe they just don't fully focus in low stress environments?

That sounds  more like a flaw than a positive attribute.

[baltfan]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That doesn't make sense.  If you can do it in a nigh pressure situation you should be able to do it all the time.  Maybe they just don't fully focus in low stress environments?

That sounds  more like a flaw than a positive attribute.

How about that maybe some people are better at controlling their nerves so they get an advantage they wouldn’t have in a non-pressure situation when the pitcher isn’t as nervous.?  And why is it that it can’t just be that some guys just are better.?  The Eddie Murray stats show in general he just was.  Why, no one can know for sure. Maybe his slow heartbeat. Maybe his pitch selection provided a greater advantage in the clutch or with runners on.  In the end it doesn’t really matter.