Jorge Mateo 2023

[maybenxtyr]

3 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Yesterday there were so many non competitive AB’s for Mateo. I still think he is injured and does not want to sit because he knows the depth of organization. I would move him into the McKenna role for two weeks to a month. Spot starts against LHP, pinch run, and defensive replacement late in games. 

Why would you say he's injured? 

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Why would you say he's injured? 

He left the game against the Nats where he barely made it to first base. I believe he sat 1-2 games then came right back. He’s had zero power since and it looked to be a hip issue. Which makes sense his straight line speed is still ok but power and mobility are affected. 

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Yesterday there were so many non competitive AB’s for Mateo. I still think he is injured and does not want to sit because he knows the depth of organization. I would move him into the McKenna role for two weeks to a month. Spot starts against LHP, pinch run, and defensive replacement late in games. 

You don't think the trainers would notice he's trying to hide an injury?

[webbed feet]

There was also a ground ball up the middle yesterday that I thought Mateo should have laid out for.  He chose not to.  That might support the injury theory.

[maybenxtyr]

21 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

He left the game against the Nats where he barely made it to first base. I believe he sat 1-2 games then came right back. He’s had zero power since and it looked to be a hip issue. Which makes sense his straight line speed is still ok but power and mobility are affected. 

A small percentage of his career has been productive. Most of the time he's below replacement level. I believe he's better than the .358 OPS over the last 30 days, but his current .637 is right in line with what his career has been. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, webbed feet said:

There was also a ground ball up the middle yesterday that I thought Mateo should have laid out for.  He chose not to.  That might support the injury theory.

So does the theory work off of the trainers being incompetent or the team just letting an injured player go out there and be unproductive when they have depth in the minors?

[waroriole]

Westburg hit his 17th HR last night. 

[maybenxtyr]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So does the theory work off of the trainers being incompetent or the team just letting an injured player go out there and be unproductive when they have depth in the minors?

Even taking the minors out of the equation, they have a capable SS at 3B and a GG 3B playing wherever they can fit him in. The injury theory holds no water with me. He's just not good...at least consistently.

[LA2]

7 hours ago, sevastras said:

Mateos spring training stats and early season stats, historically are very good. I really like him but I was also a big fan of Pie. You either get your shit together or you don’t. Some times really talented great guys don’t figure it out. 

I think maybe you need to study more "history": far from being just a ST and early-season performer, Mateo's July/August 2021 with the Orioles (88 PA) was quite good as was his July/August 2022 (180 PA). In fact, counting by months, approximately 45% of Mateo's time with the Orioles he has been an offensive threat on top of providing great defense. His career PA is only about 2/3 of the way to what is considered the cut-off point for judging exceptionally talented players, which I think Mateo is. I for one am far from dismissing the possibility that he will provide us with a third consecutive strong July/August. 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Etch said:

Ya know, up here in our local adult baseball league I once played shortstop. I was damn good. But not THAT good. Anyhoo, one year I was hitting .470 at the All Star break, and started in that game. I was crushing everything. Ball looked big as a balloon as they say. Well, the first game of the second half I'm at bat. Pitcher throws a fastball that I saw big as day. I gave a mighty swing and...and...and...missed it. Huh!? How the heck did I miss that pitch? I stepped out for a second. Back in the box, next pitch same thing. Now wait a doggone minute. What in the name of Brooks Robinson's spikes is going on here? I was 'moidering" those offerings now just freaking slicing air. Ended up going something like 2 for 24 or something like that. So I relate this incredibly interesting tale to illustrate that in baseball, ya just never know. 

I totally relate to your story based on my own experiences playing the game. Point taken.

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

I think maybe you need to study more "history": far from being just a ST and early-season performer, Mateo's July/August 2021 with the Orioles (88 PA) was quite good as was his July/August 2022 (180 PA). In fact, counting by months, approximately 45% of Mateo's time with the Orioles he has been an offensive threat on top of providing great defense. His career PA is only about 2/3 of the way to what is considered the cut-off point for judging exceptionally talented players, which I think Mateo is. I for one am far from dismissing the possibility that he will provide us with a third consecutive strong July/August. 

My point was if you look at his spring training and early season numbers throughout his career, he has good numbers. Then, he stinks for an extended period of time and even when he gets hot again, his numbers through the entire season are not great. I hoped he made meaningful changes but it appears he is following his career trajectory. He is super athletic and I like him as a player, but I would prefer someone that is a consistent threat instead of a threat 80 games of the year. I am over simplifying it, but you should get my point better now. 

[deward]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

I think maybe you need to study more "history": far from being just a ST and early-season performer, Mateo's July/August 2021 with the Orioles (88 PA) was quite good as was his July/August 2022 (180 PA). In fact, counting by months, approximately 45% of Mateo's time with the Orioles he has been an offensive threat on top of providing great defense. His career PA is only about 2/3 of the way to what is considered the cut-off point for judging exceptionally talented players, which I think Mateo is. I for one am far from dismissing the possibility that he will provide us with a third consecutive strong July/August. 

Mateo has been with the O's for a total of 10 months in-season (if you combine Sept-Oct 2022 and May-June 2023). In that time, he has put up an OPS over .700 in 4 of those months (Aug 2021, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, and Apr 2023). He had one month (May 2022) of a .648 OPS, which could be acceptable for an all glove/no hit SS. In the other five months, he's usually running an OPS in the .500's, with the exception of May/Jun 2023 where he is putting up an absolutely putrid .350. That comes out to 40% of his months with the O's where he was an above average player, all things considered, 10% where he was perhaps acceptable, and 50% where he was hurting the team. 

What are you considering the cutoff for career PA? He's at 969, including his time in San Diego. I think his career OPS of .644 is basically who he is, he just gets there via these extreme peaks and valleys. I tend to think that a player who is a complete black hole with the bat 50% of the time is not as valuable as one who can put up the same OPS with a more even distribution (not even, just closer to it). He may have another hot streak in him this year, and he'll look good during those weeks if he does, but does that really offset the damage he has done over the last six weeks? I'm not sure. What I am sure of, is that if he was capable of consistently eliminating the flaws that keep from turning his athletic potential into performance at the plate, he would be doing so. This streaky hitter who evens out to below average is who he is, you shouldn't be expecting him to get better. They should be continuing to wind down his at-bats until he shows some signs of life.

[LA2]

20 minutes ago, sevastras said:

My point was if you look at his spring training and early season numbers throughout his career, he has good numbers. Then, he stinks for an extended period of time and even when he gets hot again, his numbers through the entire season are not great. I hoped he made meaningful changes but it appears he is following his career trajectory. He is super athletic and I like him as a player, but I would prefer someone that is a consistent threat instead of a threat 80 games of the year. I am over simplifying it, but you should get my point better now. 

Thanks for the clarification. The "either get your shit together or" part of your post led me to believe you have a more limited perspective on Mateo's potential.

I would hesitate not to give Mateo as much of a chance to reach the next level as we have successfully with several other important players in recent Orioles history. But his age (almost 28) and the wealth of prospects we have probably gives him a shorter lease. If we're still in contention for the postseason next month (which I assume we will be), sometime between mid-July and mid-August 2023 might be when the decision is made. At the same time, a trait of Elias/Hyde has been to count more on known-knowns like Frazier and Hicks this year or Odor last year than throw several rookies into the lineup simultaneously--and it's not proven to be the wrong approach so far. It would also strengthen any trade value Mateo has if he can put together a third consecutive July/August.

[LA2]

24 minutes ago, deward said:

Mateo has been with the O's for a total of 10 months in-season (if you combine Sept-Oct 2022 and May-June 2023). In that time, he has put up an OPS over .700 in 4 of those months (Aug 2021, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, and Apr 2023). He had one month (May 2022) of a .648 OPS, which could be acceptable for an all glove/no hit SS. In the other five months, he's usually running an OPS in the .500's, with the exception of May/Jun 2023 where he is putting up an absolutely putrid .350. That comes out to 40% of his months with the O's where he was an above average player, all things considered, 10% where he was perhaps acceptable, and 50% where he was hurting the team. 

What are you considering the cutoff for career PA? He's at 969, including his time in San Diego. I think his career OPS of .644 is basically who he is, he just gets there via these extreme peaks and valleys. I tend to think that a player who is a complete black hole with the bat 50% of the time is not as valuable as one who can put up the same OPS with a more even distribution (not even, just closer to it). He may have another hot streak in him this year, and he'll look good during those weeks if he does, but does that really offset the damage he has done over the last six weeks? I'm not sure. What I am sure of, is that if he was capable of consistently eliminating the flaws that keep from turning his athletic potential into performance at the plate, he would be doing so. This streaky hitter who evens out to below average is who he is, you shouldn't be expecting him to get better. They should be continuing to wind down his at-bats until he shows some signs of life.

Months are a rough measure and so our breakdowns of his performance are pretty much the same. As I have just posted in response to Sevartas, we may not be in a position to let Mateo have the proverbial 1,500 PA before a final evaluation and his age doesn't help his case. A strong July/August might not completely make up for the past six weeks, but if it is in the offing--due to the drastic cycles you detailed--I don't know why we would reject it, especially if he continues to supply high value defensively. Buy low, sell high, as they say, and we've been through the lows.

If we are in contention, another argument goes, a rookie, as we have seen in spades with Grayson, Vavra, Stowers, until recently with Henderson, and even the first few weeks of AR, may not be the solution that so many people here are so optimistic about. At the same time, it may very well be that Elias is not going with a veteranosity approach and is just waiting for a few more weeks or a month to pass. He plays a smart game and all we can do is wait and see. But it won't surprise me if Mateo is resurgent and makes the decision-making harder than it already is.

[2001OriolesFan]

What we don't see is how the trade offers are going and how other teams think Mateo could fit into their team.  Ortiz, Henderson are better SS.  Westburg is about the same. Holliday will be someone who will make Mateo disappear from Orioles history.  Right now, it is about keeping the ship steady while we are winning and managing the trade value of our assets.