Creed Willems 2023

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Adley was the record signing bonuses at the time.  I believe Jackson  is only behind Tork’s overpay in the history books.  If it quacks like a slot and swims like a slot…

If we’re asking these questions about our signings, imagine being a Tiger fan!  1.1 don’t really have bargaining power and to still blow the top off the bonus is silly.  Get in the ballpark and they’ll sign.

I love this so much.

Poster states something as fact.

I point out that it isn't fact.

They spin away the reasons why it isn't important without actually acknowledging they were wrong.

Question.  Do you think it is at least possible that Witt or Jones, if selected 1-1 would have demanded more money that Adley and Jackson received?

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love this so much.

Poster states something as fact.

I point out that it isn't fact.

They spin away the reasons why it isn't important without actually acknowledging they were wrong.

Question.  Do you think it is at least possible that Witt or Jones, if selected 1-1 would have demanded more money that Adley and Jackson received?

Sure.  Do you think it’s possible that Adley and Jackson were ranked higher by Elias than Witt or Jones regardless of signing demands?

You can your alternative facts/spin, I’ll have mine.  I tossed out some facts and you did not refute them.  Just a little mocking and deflecting.  

I fully recognize that Elias revels in the slot games and portfolio management.  But I also think he revels in talent selections as well.  

At the end of the day, I like the general trends Elias has given us regarding draft/development success.  Still work to be done…

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Question.  Do you think it is at least possible that Witt or Jones, if selected 1-1 would have demanded more money that Adley and Jackson received?

Impossible to know.  Adley signed for about $315 k under slot but still $313 k for than Witt received (which was $2500 under slot).  Holliday signed for about $655 k under siot (and $600 above the no. 2 slot) while Jones signed for no. 2 slot money.  If I were speculating, I think Jones would have demanded more than what Holliday signed for if he’d been picked no. 1.   I doubt Witt would have demanded more than Adley got.  But who knows?

Edited April 28, 2023 by Frobby

[Tony-OH]

On 4/28/2023 at 1:40 AM, emmett16 said:

He’s an athletic fella - don’t let the body fool you.  He’s got some tools.  

He's really is pretty athletic overall though he's still a pretty slow runner. The young man has some great enthusiasm out there and he's fun guy to watch play. He's quite the story so far this year. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

And if Cowser turns out better than Lawlar and Creed turns into a ML regular this individual will still not admit that the Orioles were smart.   You see, it wasn't the process that Mr. Genius would have used.    The same genius who wanted Witt over Rutschman, Colon over Machado, Veen over Kjerstad, and Druw Jones over Holliday.     With a track record like that you can see how strongly he feels about his process.

What you're saying here is that we should be glad Sports Guy is not our scouting director?  

Hey, I was not a fan of the Willems selection and money at the time because that body shape scares me as he grows older. Now saying that, I didn't crush the signing nor do I have an issue so much with spreading around the money like the Orioles have done with the Kjerstad and Cowser signings. 

Willems has certainly found something that works. He certainly is hitting the ball with more authority and every interview you get with the young man shows that he seems to be a hard worker with a good head on his shoulders. Obviously the weight thing is something we will still need to see about as he gets older as it's a lot easier to play with that weight 20 then at 25 onward. 

There are the Alejandro Kirk's and John Kruk's the make it work, but it's worth noting that Kirk is 24 years old this year and he's already splitting time with Danny Jansen behind the dish.

Regardless of all of this, he's off to a very nice start to his 2023 season and he's been a very good surprise. 

[owknows]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hey really is pretty athletic overall though he's still a pretty slow runner. The young man has some great enthusiasm out there and he's fun guy to watch play. He's quite the story so far this year. 

The baseball equivalent of Charles Barkley

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

What you're saying here is that we should be glad Sports Guy is not our scouting director?  

Hey, I was not a fan of the Willems selection and money at the time because that body shape scares me as he grows older. Now saying that, I didn't crush the signing nor do I have an issue so much with spreading around the money like the Orioles have done with the Kjerstad and Cowser signings. 

Willems has certainly found something that works. He certainly is hitting the ball with more authority and every interview you get with the young man shows that he seems to be a hard worker with a good head on his shoulders. Obviously the weight thing is something we will still need to see about as he gets older as it's a lot easier to play with that weight 20 then at 25 onward. 

There are the Alejandro Kirk's and John Kruk's the make it work, but it's worth noting that Kirk is 24 years old this year and he's already splitting time with Danny Jansen behind the dish.

Regardless of all of this, he's off to a very nice start to his 2023 season and he's been a very good surprise. 

Hey now..You wanted Asa Lacy!  

First of all, RZ is a little wrong about that.  For example, it’s not that I thought Manny wasn’t  better than Colon or had higher upside than Colon but everyone said Manny needed to be developed and I didn’t trust the Os to do it. Any other org I would have said to draft Manny.

Colon was thought of as a polished college player. My belief back then, which I have now changed on, is that you have to hit on those high picks vs getting someone that is more of a project, high risk/high reward guy.

Where I was wrong is that the Os were obviously able to develop Manny (and perhaps manny was better than people were giving him credit for) and Colon ended up sucking…but the consensus was that he was going to be a good player.

I wanted Rendon over Bundy.

And yes, I did want Druw Jones for basically the whole process but once we started to hear things about Holliday after the pick was done, it was obvious that Holiday was the top guy on their board and it wasn’t a signability thing. So I’m good with that. And it’s not like Holliday is definitely going to be better than Jones anyway.  Holliday was the only other guy I said was justifiable at 1.  Meanwhile, RZs guy, Termarr Johnson, has all of 74 MiL at bats and a 700 OPS. RZ also said he would probably take Jones as well.  See, he throws out 3-6 names, doesn’t have the stones to sit on one guy and then wants to troll people years later. Meanwhile, he talks about everyone and sucks Elias off and acts like everything he does is right and that no one should disagree with him. 

I have yet to be wrong about any of the other things other than maybe Adley but the age difference is huge.  I’m also  convinced that Witt here is way better than Witt in KC because I think we develop better.  Doesn’t mean he’s a better pick than Adley.

More than any of it, losing on purpose and taking lesser players in the draft with that first pick bothers me.

Lawlar is showing to be the better prospect, the higher upside prospect and the overall better player compared to Cowser. I don’t then and still now don’t feel that you pass on him to draft Rhodes and Willems..and even if you draft Lawlar, you easily can sign one of both of them anyway because you can punt picks, as we have seen many teams do.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hey now..You wanted Asa Lacy!  

First of all, RZ is a little wrong about that.  For example, it’s not that I thought Manny wasn’t  better than Colon or had higher upside than Colon but everyone said Manny needed to be developed and I didn’t trust the Os to do it. Any other org I would have said to draft Manny.

Colon was thought of as a polished college player. My belief back then, which I have now changed on, is that you have to hit on those high picks vs getting someone that is more of a project, high risk/high reward guy.

Where I was wrong is that the Os were obviously able to develop Manny (and perhaps manny was better than people were giving him credit for) and Colon ended up sucking…but the consensus was that he was going to be a good player.

I wanted Rendon over Bundy.

And yes, I did want Druw Jones for basically the whole process but once we started to hear things about Holliday after the pick was done, it was obvious that Holiday was the top guy on their board and it wasn’t a signability thing. So I’m good with that. And it’s not like Holliday is definitely going to be better than Jones anyway.  Holliday was the only other guy I said was justifiable at 1.  Meanwhile, RZs guy, Termarr Johnson, has all of 74 MiL at bats and a 700 OPS.

I have yet to be wrong about any of the other things other than maybe Adley but the age difference is huge.  I’m also  convinced that Witt here is way better than Witt in KC because I think we develop better.  Doesn’t mean he’s a better pick than Adley.

More than any of it, losing on purpose and taking lesser players in the draft with that first pick bothers me.

Lawlar is showing to be the better prospect, the higher upside prospect and the overall better player compared to Cowser. I don’t then and still now don’t feel that you pass on him to draft Rhodes and Willems..and even if you draft Lawlar, you easily can sign one of both of them anyway because you can punt picks, as we have seen many teams do.

I was just yanking your chain. As most know, I don't do any real scouting of guys before they are selected so I never have strong opinions on their selections until after I do that analysis. I did like what I read about Lacy but damn, he's been quite the bust so far. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I was just yanking your chain. As most know, I don't do any real scouting of guys before they are selected so I never have strong opinions on their selections under after I do that analysis. I did like what I read about Lacy but damn, he's been quite the bust so far. 

Yea. I’m basing a lot of my opinions on the expert guys but put more weight on a guy like Nick Faleris vs other more known sites. 
 

I never loved Lacy’s profile but damn, he has huge upside. He’s kind of like Hall in many ways. 
 

If you go back and look at some of these last few drafts, they don’t look great at all.

The Kjerstad draft in particular..rough looking round 1.  I do think we don’t factor that into things enough. Sometimes, drafts just aren’t very good. So the failure of teams drafting may be more about the talent than the team.

It’s like the NFL draft this year.  It’s a weak draft by all accounts.(part of the reason the ravens don’t care that they only have 5 picks)

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea. I’m basing a lot of my opinions on the expert guys but put more weight on a guy like Nick Faleris vs other more known sites. 
 

I never loved Lacy’s profile but damn, he has huge upside. He’s kind of like Hall in many ways. 
 

If you go back and look at some of these last few drafts, they don’t look great at all.

The Kjerstad draft in particular..rough looking round 1.  I do think we don’t factor that into things enough. Sometimes, drafts just aren’t very good. So the failure of teams drafting may be more about the talent than the team.

It’s like the NFL draft this year.  It’s a weak draft by all accounts.(part of the reason the ravens don’t care that they only have 5 picks)

That 2020 draft is always going to have an asterisk next to it. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That 2020 draft is always going to have an asterisk next to it. 

 

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That 2020 draft is always going to have an asterisk next to it. 

All the more reason to pat Elias on the back for that one.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

For example, it’s not that I thought Manny wasn’t  better than Colon or had higher upside than Colon but everyone said Manny needed to be developed and I didn’t trust the Os to do it. Any other org I would have said to draft Manny.

Colon was thought of as a polished college player. My belief back then, which I have now changed on, is that you have to hit on those high picks vs getting someone that is more of a project, high risk/high reward guy.

Where I was wrong is that the Os were obviously able to develop Manny (and perhaps manny was better than people were giving him credit for) and Colon ended up sucking…but the consensus was that he was going to be a good player.

Longest winded way of saying "I was totally wrong." Very impressive 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Longest winded way of saying "I was totally wrong." Very impressive 

I did say I was wrong troll.  But good job butting your nose in, yet again. The next time you offer an original thought without being a dick will be the first time.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Impossible to know.  Adley signed for about $315 k under slot but still $313 k for than Witt received (which was $2500 under slot).  Holliday signed for about $655 k under siot (and $600 above the no. 2 slot) while Jones signed for no. 2 slot money.  If I were speculating, I think Jones would have demanded more than what Holliday signed for if he’d been picked no. 1.   I doubt Witt would have demanded more than Adley got.  But who knows?

Hence me asking if it were possible.

[RZNJ]

I was not a Termarr Johnson guy.  I'm the one who questioned if his bat was really "generational". I also said I preferred Druw Johnson based on everything I read.  I'm just humble enough to realize the Orioles might actually know more than John Callis or Keith Law or Eric Longenhagen.  SportsGuy can't wrap is tiny brain around the fact that the Orioles felt Cowser was the better pick and they could save money.   The pundits have Lawlar rated ahead of Cowser.  How many times do the pundits have to be wrong and the Orioles be right before you say "wait a second. Maybe I shouldn't be too quick to judge".   You can't teach a slug new tricks.