Gunnar Henderson 2023

[baltfan]

I am all for extending guys but let’s not pretend that it is a sure thing that extensions are in a team’s best interests.  Take a look at the Cubs.  They were run by a great GM.  If Rizzo, Báez, Bryant, and Contreras had been extended, they wouldn’t be in a very good place.  Moreover, what if they had extended Addison Russell since he was a well thought of up and coming prospect?  Extensions. Don’t always work out.  

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I am all for extending guys but let’s not pretend that it is a sure thing that extensions are in a team’s best interests.  Take a look at the Cubs.  They were run by a great GM.  If Rizzo, Báez, Bryant, and Contreras had been extended, they wouldn’t be in a very good place.  Moreover, what if they had extended Addison Russell since he was a well thought of up and coming prospect?  Extensions. Don’t always work out.  

You make some very valid points regarding the Cubs. And they are not the only ones, depending on what happens legally Wander Franco contract situation may not end up working out very well for the Rays. However, counterpoints can be offered regarding locking up other young players like Carroll JRod, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts among others.

The issue is you have to chose the RIGHT player to lock up longterm. Henderson looks like a budding superstar with tremendous 5 tool potential. He has so many skills that it is reasonable to expect that he will be great for the next decade. Additionally, Holliday (who is right behind him) while not proven in the Majors yet, given his tremendous rise in the last 2 years and his soar from single A through AAA in a single season, is probably another player that it is reasonable to bet on.

The worst thing we can do is not sign any of the special guys and be arrogant enough to believe you can replace them all. Even the Rays know that's possible.

[baltfan]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You make some very valid points regarding the Cubs. And they are not the only ones, depending on what happens legally Wander Franco contract situation may not end up working out very well for the Rays. However, counterpoints can be offered regarding locking up other young players like Carroll JRod, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts among others.

The issue is you have to chose the RIGHT player to lock up longterm. Henderson looks like a budding superstar with tremendous 5 tool potential. He has so many skills that it is reasonable to expect that he will be great for the next decade. Additionally, Holliday (who is right behind him) while not proven in the Majors yet, given his tremendous rise in the last 2 years and his soar from single A through AAA in a single season, is probably another player that it is reasonable to bet on.

The worst thing we can do is not sign any of the special guys and be arrogant enough to believe you can replace them all. Even the Rays know that's possible.

Are you saying Bryant and Rizzo didn’t look like “right” guys?

[Bemorewins]

42 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Are you saying Bryant and Rizzo didn’t look like “right” guys?

Because they don't play premium positions, I would be hesitant to extend any corner INF or OF guys. Unless they are 5 tool types like Freeman who are amazingly skilled at all facets of the game. 

[joelala]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

But where does it get more expensive?  The next 5 years are essentially written in stone. Maybe a few million here or there but basically he’s looking at 50ishM the next 5 years…if things basically go perfectly.

What if we front-loaded it a bit? 

[deward]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

I am all for extending guys but let’s not pretend that it is a sure thing that extensions are in a team’s best interests.  Take a look at the Cubs.  They were run by a great GM.  If Rizzo, Báez, Bryant, and Contreras had been extended, they wouldn’t be in a very good place.  Moreover, what if they had extended Addison Russell since he was a well thought of up and coming prospect?  Extensions. Don’t always work out.  

I'm not really sure what your point is here. I think everyone here understands that long-term guaranteed contracts involve some risk. That doesn't mean that they shouldn't try. 

[deward]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

JA is not extending Gunnar. We all know he's not. He is going to ride this window until his contract is up then let him walk or trade him. 

I have no faith in JA to extend anyone, but I do have some hope that he won't be the one making the call when the time comes.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

What if we front-loaded it a bit? 

That would just increase the cost for the team.

[joelala]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

That would just increase the cost for the team.

Because of inflation? Otherwise how?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

Because of inflation? Otherwise how?

Would you rather owe someone 10 bucks now and 20 bucks a year from now or the reverse?

Future money is worth less than present money.

Not only does inflation factor in but you lose whatever opportunity you might have to grow that money. 

 

[baltfan]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I'm not really sure what your point is here. I think everyone here understands that long-term guaranteed contracts involve some risk. That doesn't mean that they shouldn't try. 

I think that people are a bit sanguine about long term extensions and how often they work out.  They act like any long term extension almost no matter the price is a win.  Just here, we were told that the JRod extension and Much is made out of how the Orioles aren’t getting extensions and this obviously being bad. For the Cubs it turned out to be a good thing.  Finally, everyone acts like Angelos never extended anyone. He extended Jones and Roberts.  I think people forget about that.  

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you rather owe someone 10 bucks now and 20 bucks a year from now or the reverse?

Future money is worth less than present money.

Not only does inflation factor in but you lose whatever opportunity you might have to grow that money. 

 

This is so true. I always laugh when people say teams shouldn’t pay deferred money.  I want those people as my employees. 

[Osornot]

Yes on Jones and Roberts.  But they were for 6 and 4 years respectively and not under JA's reign.  We are talking much longer with an owner who, IMO, does everything possible to please Dad.  In a weird way, I saw some Angelos in the show "Succession."  What bothers me is the "It's going to be tough" BS starting. It appeared to me that he was being proactive and setting up later excuses. 

I believe he should ask his intelligent baseball people to tell him what an extension would look like, the risks, etc., and start a discussion with decent numbers.  If it doesn't work ok you can plan accordingly but just cut the excuses now.  People complain about Boras.  Well, if he just sat back, and listened to what JA says it would be malpractice not to discuss options with his client that have a larger chance of happening.  Yes, a few years down the road but would you trust JA?

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, joelala said:

What if we front-loaded it a bit? 

You could give him more early than he would normally make but I doubt they would give him too much more because you want those cheap years.

[spleen1015]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And yet Boras clients have signed extensions.

I'm not saying they're not.