Cade Povich 2023

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, HuskerFan said:

Here's a breakdown of his stat cast in AAA with (velo average).  

Game 1 v Nashville:  27 FB (91.8), 14 CT (87.9), 9 CH (83.5), 5 CB (74.6), 4 SW (79.2).  He was really bad this outing.  

Game 2 v Charlotte:  30 FB (92.2), 23 CT (88.2), 14 CH (84.3), 13 CB (75.8) 4 SW (81.8).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Game 3 @ Jacksonville:  33 FB (92.5), 16 CT (88.2), 11 CH (84.1), 5 CB (76.1), 4 SW (79.9).  5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

Game 4 @ Memphis:  21 FB (92.6), 8 CT (88.7), 17 CH (84.1), 5 CB (75.5), 3 SW (79.5).  He was really bad this outing.  

Game 5 v Durham:  43 FB (92.3), 10 CT (88.2), 17 CH (84.5), 13 CB (76.3), 6 SW (80.7).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K

Game 6 v @ Worchester:  40 FB (92.4), 6 CT (87.9), 8 CH (83.8), 9 CB(76.6), 10 SW (81.8).  Didn't get out of the 3rd. 

Game 7 @ Worchester:  38 FB (92.6), 13 CT (87.3), 9 CH (83.7), 15 CB (75.1), 20 SW (82.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. 

Game 8 v Jacksonville:  49 FB (92.9), 17 CT (87.6), 9 CH (83.6), 12 CB (75.7), 10 SW (81.2).  5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K

Game 9 v Memphis:  48 FB (92.7), 19 CT (87.4), 10 CH (83.3), 11 CB (75.1), 11 SW (81.5).  6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Game 10 @ Buffalo:  51 FB (91.5), 23 CT (87.3), 7 CH (84.7), 5 CB (75.7), 12 SW (81.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K.  (2 ER & 1 BB was in the 6th)

 

7 outings:  38.2 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 19 BB, 44 K.  

3 outings:  Really bad.  

I wouldn’t call outings 7 and 10 good.  10 IP, 7 ER.   

Still, his dominant outings are very dominant.  It was true in AA too.  

2024 is about gaining consistency.  He needs to cut down the bad outings by at least 50%, and when he does a bad outing, he needs to learn how not to let it spiral completely out of control.   

Povich is not the first talented pitcher to experience these issues, and he won’t be the last.   Some overcome them, and some never do.  Hopefully Povich will be one of the former.  


 

[HuskerFan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t call outings 7 and 10 good.  10 IP, 7 ER.   

Still, his dominant outings are very dominant.  It was true in AA too.  

2024 is about gaining consistency.  He needs to cut down the bad outings by at least 50%, and when he does a bad outing, he needs to learn how not to let it spiral completely out of control.   

Povich is not the first talented pitcher to experience these issues, and he won’t be the last.   Some overcome them, and some never do.  Hopefully Povich will be one of the former.  


 

 

Without creating a third or even a fourth category, good applies to at least #10.  Sometimes, one needs to look in to something instead of looking at something. 

#10 was 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K is good.  The 6th bloated his boxscore with the first 2 getting on for 2 additional runs.  McFarland inherits them and both score.  Start #28, the most in his young career, sitting at 87 pitches after 5 with the playoffs Tues-Wed-Thurs, no reason to run him out for another.   And based on how tonight went & who was used, looks like he'll be throwing Thursday.  The 6th was useless with the circumstances.

#7 isn't horrendous, which was the other category.   Feel free to create your own from the data shared.

Edited September 27, 2023 by HuskerFan

[CaptainRedbeard]

One thing to keep in mind is that the offensive environment in AAA was crazy this year with the ball/strike system, especially with BB rates. For instance, Norby was only a bit above average hitter (109 wRC+) with a .290/.359/.483 line.

So while Povich’s BB rates are definitely a concern, we don’t really have a lot of context for how much of an impact the rules had or how it should translate to the MLB level. Safe to say it’s something he needs to improve on but he may not be as far off as it seems by looking at the raw numbers. 

[btdart20]

59 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

One thing to keep in mind is that the offensive environment in AAA was crazy this year with the ball/strike system, especially with BB rates. For instance, Norby was only a bit above average hitter (109 wRC+) with a .290/.359/.483 line.

So while Povich’s BB rates are definitely a concern, we don’t really have a lot of context for how much of an impact the rules had or how it should translate to the MLB level. Safe to say it’s something he needs to improve on but he may not be as far off as it seems by looking at the raw numbers. 

That's a good point.  Especially the top of the strikezone and riding 4-seamers.  There were changes to the ABS after the AAA All-Star break trying to get that piece better.  But it still struggles with a guy who crouches in the box - ala Rickey Henderson.

MLB just tweaked Triple A’s electronic strike zone: What you need to know and why it matters - The Athletic

For the rest of this season, the top of each hitter’s zone will be a spot defined as “two baseballs above the midpoint of his hip” — which works out to approximately one baseball’s width higher than his belt. 

Last night's Norfolk/Durham game, I saw 3 challenges by Durham that were overturned.  One resulted in a walk with the bases loaded.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

That's a good point.  Especially the top of the strikezone and riding 4-seamers.  There were changes to the ABS after the AAA All-Star break trying to get that piece better.  But it still struggles with a guy who crouches in the box - ala Rickey Henderson.

MLB just tweaked Triple A’s electronic strike zone: What you need to know and why it matters - The Athletic

For the rest of this season, the top of each hitter’s zone will be a spot defined as “two baseballs above the midpoint of his hip” — which works out to approximately one baseball’s width higher than his belt. 

Last night's Norfolk/Durham game, I saw 3 challenges by Durham that were overturned.  One resulted in a walk with the bases loaded.

Of course, that’s not the strike zone that’s actually in the rule book: the midpoint between the top of the shoulder and the top of the uniform pants.   They should change the rule if they don’t like it, rather than ignoring it.  

[Frobby]

So I think Povich is on turn today.   Is he getting the ball for the deciding game of the International League championship series?   If so, that’s a huge test for him. He pitched against Durham one other time and had a great outing, allowing one run on one hit in 6 IP.  He’d be going on “only” four days’ rest, so if he’s pitching, it will be interesting to see what he’s got in the tank.  

[EERinthe804]

Yes, Cade's dad is on another message board that I'm on and he says that he's starting tonight in the deciding game!

[Tony-OH]

On 9/26/2023 at 5:02 PM, btdart20 said:

I added BB% and LOB% in your comment just to add a bit more.

 

If you're not familiar, Savant has some AAA data available at the game level.

Cade Povich Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

I really wish they would give the season numbers as whole like they do with the big league players, but I'll take what I can get. I'm hoping they expand from AAA down to A ball next year at a minimum. 

[EERinthe804]

Cade texted his dad after the game that he was tipping pitches as the other team was signaling what was coming before they took him out because his glove is too small…

 

 

[Frobby]

4 scoreless innings.  Not bad!

[HuskerFan]

AAA September 2023 finish: 5 Starts, 25.2 Innings Pitched, 2.46 ERA.  (1.75 ERA had they not extended him to the 6th at Buffalo)

AA September 2022 finish: 3 Starts, 7.1 Innings Pitched, 12.27 ERA.  

2023 had around 20 more total innings pitched.  

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:

Cade texted his dad after the game that he was tipping pitches as the other team was signaling what was coming before they took him out because his glove is too small…

 

 

Well it's pretty impressive that they knew what was coming and still struggled to hit him. That may have contributed to the high pitch count though.

[CHIP]

On 9/26/2023 at 8:54 PM, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t call outings 7 and 10 good.  10 IP, 7 ER.   

Still, his dominant outings are very dominant.  It was true in AA too.  

2024 is about gaining consistency.  He needs to cut down the bad outings by at least 50%, and when he does a bad outing, he needs to learn how not to let it spiral completely out of control.   

Povich is not the first talented pitcher to experience these issues, and he won’t be the last.   Some overcome them, and some never do.  Hopefully Povich will be one of the former.  


 

Povich pitched to 5 different catchers over those 10 games.  Bemboom (1, 3), Godoy (2, 4, 5, 10), Handley (6, 8 ) and Susnara (7) and Viloria (9).  I made this point earlier that there is a lot of churn at AAA.  Very few pitchers got the same catcher over and over again.  I believe this does make a difference at any level. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, CHIP said:

Povich pitched to 5 different catchers over those 10 games.  Bemboom (1, 3), Godoy (2, 4, 5, 10), Handley (6, 8 ) and Susnara (7) and Viloria (9).  I made this point earlier that there is a lot of churn at AAA.  Very few pitchers got the same catcher over and over again.  I believe this does make a difference at any level. 

I can’t disagree with this, and the electronic strike zone experiments probably don’t help, since they use different methodologies on weekdays vs. weekends.  But of course, McDermott faced all these same issues but was much more consistent.  

[Sports Guy]

I enter next year expecting very little from Povich in terms of being a help at the ML level while also acknowledging that a few tweaks in his game could mean he’s a big part of the rotation in the second half of the year.

Thats a long winded way of saying, I have zero idea what to expect from this guy. He’s an enigma to me.