For The Times they are a'Changin

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hard to say.

Most of the main Union guys are vets, are they going to look out for the younger guys or not?  It was interesting they killed the International draft.

I think they have to.  Guys 31+ are just not going to consistently get a good contract. If they don’t make some good money years 24-29 they miss the boat.  

[owknows]

Just now, wildcard said:

I think it interesting that this discussion on tanking  and maintaining low budgets is being had now instead on December when many wanted the O's to spend.

In fairness... I had the discussion then as well.

And discussed the possibility and potential merits of winning on a budget in some detail.

Didn't want any big budget free agents.

Was maligned and downrated into oblivion by an obnoxious few.

 

[geschinger]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a complete lie that you have to draft high to have a good farm system. It is proven every year to be false.  There is no argument that suggests otherwise.

No one that I'm aware of is saying you have to draft high to have a good farm system. I expect Elias to keep the Orioles farm system good while hopefully picking low in future years by having pieces he can spin off and an International presence that is finally contributing.  But as we both know, those augmentations to the amateur draft barely existed when we tanked.  

You need significant draft capital to go from a bad farm system to a great one within a couple of years if you have nothing else to augment that farm system.  But please, if I'm wrong, point to a franchise that has made even half as much progress improving their farm system through the amateur draft as the Orioles have made while picking low. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

In fairness... I had the discussion then as well.

And discussed the possibility and potential merits of winning on a budget in some detail.

Didn't want any big budget free agents.

Was maligned and downrated into oblivion by an obnoxious few.

 

I think your basis for the discussion now is shaky because standings in April are not standings  in September.

I have been in favor of a Tampa like model for the O's.  Mostly because the O's will never outspend the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays.   I think Elias building of a scouting, player development and analytics organization  makes that models success likely.

As far as it being a trend,  I am not so sure.   It takes discipline from the top and most teams that have money will go for the quick fix of spending in free agency.  And most small budget teams just  don't have the discipline to consistently stay with the process that rebuilding requires.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

No one that I'm aware of is saying you have to draft high to have a good farm system. I expect Elias to keep the Orioles farm system good while hopefully picking low in future years by having pieces he can spin off and an International presence that is finally contributing.  But as we both know, those augmentations to the amateur draft barely existed when we tanked.  

You need significant draft capital to go from a bad farm system to a great one within a couple of years if you have nothing else to augment that farm system.  But please, if I'm wrong, point to a franchise that has made even half as much progress improving their farm system through the amateur draft as the Orioles have made while picking low. 

Plenty of teams draft well picking at the bottom of the draft..or even the bottom half of the draft.

As I said, most of the Os players in their system are not here because of tanking. It’s a lie to say otherwise.

They drafted and developed well and would have done that whether they picked in the top 5 or not.

[LTO's]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Outside of Holliday, which of our top prospects were acquired directly from tanking?

A lot of people felt Cowser and Kjerstad could have gone closer to the 10. Maybe, maybe not. But it’s certainly possible you didn’t have to “tank” to get them and you certainly may have been able to field a more respectable product and still gotten a player as good or better (Veen, Frelick, Miller are examples)

People will point to Mayo as a guy we got from tanking..but that’s completely false. Overslots are signed by every team, every draft.

Westburg, Ortiz, Stowers, etc..none of them are from tanking. 
 

You clearly don’t get Adley (again, they weren’t tanking when they got him) or Holliday if you aren’t tanking. Those are the “unique” players.

Why are you so fixated on the draft? That's not all there is to "tanking." Elias traded basically all of the (very little) useful veteran major league talent still on the roster to try and acquire players that could help further down the line. That's certainly an aspect of tanking. Grabbing players off the waiver wire and giving them starting roles is tanking. Giving a rule 5 pick a full season on your 26 man roster is something tanking teams do. Continuing to give struggling players or guys considered non-prospects reps is something tanking teams do. Much of the value provided from the 2022 and 2023 teams have come from players acquired these ways. 

And your point about Adley is so incredibly stupid. Sure, DD and Buck weren't "tanking" in 2018 but the end result is literally no different than if they had been. You still get a very top of the first round draft pick which is where the best players are usually taken. You're trying to argue that tanking for a #1 pick is a dumb strategy when the Orioles drafted a perennial MVP candidate.......with the #1 pick lol. 

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think they have to.  Guys 31+ are just not going to consistently get a good contract. If they don’t make some good money years 24-29 they miss the boat.  

Being  a Free Agent in their 30's didn't  seem to matter this passed off season.

Edited April 24, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

In fairness... I had the discussion then as well.

And discussed the possibility and potential merits of winning on a budget in some detail.

Didn't want any big budget free agents.

Was maligned and downrated into oblivion by an obnoxious few.

 

Yes, you definitely said that.   Since most of the spending desires were centered on pitching, let’s look at how the prime targets are doing: 

deGrom 3.04 ERA in 26.1 IP in 5 starts. 
Rodon hasn’t pitched. 
Verlander hasn’t pitched.

Senga 4.29 ERA in 21.0 IP

Bassitt 5.40 ERA in 21.2 IP

Taillon 4.50 ERA in 14.0 IP

Walker 3.80 ERA in 21.1 IP

Manaea 6.60 ERA in 15.0 IP

Heaney 4.34 ERA in 18.2 IP

Syndergaard 4.91 ERA in 22.0 IP

Eovaldi 5.40 ERA in 21.2 IP

Elfin 2.81 ERA in 16.0 IP

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I have been in favor of a Tampa like model for the O's.  Mostly because the O's will never outspend the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays.   I think Elias building of a scouting, player development and analytics organization  makes that models success likely.

From hearing Angelos talk, that might be the most realistic outcome.  But I'm hoping the model is Houston but with a payroll slightly rightsized for the Baltimore market.  I think this is entirely doable with a payroll no higher than it was in the mid 2010s.   And we did hire staff from Houston and nothing the Orioles have/haven't done to this point has deviated from that Houston model.  

I don't want to see the Orioles sell every player but also be realistic about whom they can keep.  For every Altuve like long term deal,  let Correa and Springer type talent go with talent in the pipeline to take their place instead of bad contracts keeping players into their 30s.

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, owknows said:

In fairness... I had the discussion then as well.

And discussed the possibility and potential merits of winning on a budget in some detail.

Didn't want any big budget free agents.

Was maligned and downrated into oblivion by an obnoxious few.

 

I missed that discussion... But out of curiosity are you advocating that the Orioles continue no spending now? As in don't acquire better starting pitching? Don't extend Adley or any other young players who produce?

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think your basis for the discussion now is shaky because standings in April are not standings  in September.

Yeah... I think I've acknowledged that it's pretty early in the initial post, and several times thereafter.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Why are you so fixated on the draft? That's not all there is to "tanking." Elias traded basically all of the (very little) useful veteran major league talent still on the roster to try and acquire players that could help further down the line. That's certainly an aspect of tanking. Grabbing players off the waiver wire and giving them starting roles is tanking. Giving a rule 5 pick a full season on your 26 man roster is something tanking teams do. Continuing to give struggling players or guys considered non-prospects reps is something tanking teams do. Much of the value provided from the 2022 and 2023 teams have come from players acquired these ways. 

And your point about Adley is so incredibly stupid. Sure, DD and Buck weren't "tanking" in 2018 but the end result is literally no different than if they had been. You still get a very top of the first round draft pick which is where the best players are usually taken. You're trying to argue that tanking for a #1 pick is a dumb strategy when the Orioles drafted a perennial MVP candidate.......with the #1 pick lol. 

First of all, you don’t need to tank or rebuild to trade vets that aren’t part of your long term. But sure, it helps that you don’t care about wins if you want to do that.

That said, im fine with the early tanking, which I’m perfectly fine with.

Secondly,  contending teams have rule 5 guys and players that need to get looks all the time. That’s not unique to tanking.

And your last paragraph shows your ignorance and stupidity to the conversation, so whatever.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think your basis for the discussion now is shaky because standings in April are not standings  in September.

I have been in favor of a Tampa like model for the O's.  Mostly because the O's will never outspend the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays.   I think Elias building of a scouting, player development and analytics organization  makes that models success likely.

As far as it being a trend,  I am not so sure.   It takes discipline from the top and most teams that have money will go for the quick fix of spending in free agency.  And most small budget teams just  don't have the discipline to consistently stay with the process that rebuilding requires.

I keep hearing some people talk about the "Tampa model" but I struggle to see ANY other Major league franchise that has come anywhere no close to being able to consistently develop ELITE pitching talent... Maybe the Dodgers? Maybe the Guardians?

The Orioles are being built NOTHING like the Rays. All of our top draft resources have gone into positional players.

Do you have confidence that the O's can develop ELITE pitching consistently like the Rays have? If so, what informs that confidence?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

From hearing Angelos talk, that might be the most realistic outcome.  But I'm hoping the model is Houston but with a payroll slightly rightsized for the Baltimore market.  I think this is entirely doable with a payroll no higher than it was in the mid 2010s.   And we did hire staff from Houston and nothing the Orioles have/haven't done to this point has deviated from that Houston model.  

I don't want to see the Orioles sell every player but also be realistic about whom they can keep.  For every Altuve like long term deal,  let Correa and Springer type talent go with talent in the pipeline to take their place instead of bad contracts keeping players into their 30s.

They need to spend 130-150M. No “need” to go higher than that unless it’s an off year where it’s higher because of a bunch of guys at the end of arbitration or something like that.

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Plenty of teams draft well picking at the bottom of the draft..or even the bottom half of the draft.

As I said, most of the Os players in their system are not here because of tanking. It’s a lie to say otherwise.

They drafted and developed well and would have done that whether they picked in the top 5 or not.

Not true, there are not plenty of teams at the bottom of the draft adding anywhere near the quantity and quality of talent the Orioles have added via the amateur draft the last couple of years  Depending on the list - somewhere 6 or 7 MLB top 100 prospects from those amateur drafts not to mention another 2 - Adley and Gunnar in Baltimore from recent amateur drafts.