Law Mock draft

[RZNJ]

Love the Nimmala swing and power potential.  Don’t know if he’ll actually hit but the O’s seem to have a pretty good feel for that.    I think he’s one of the highest upside picks in the draft and most think he can stick at SS.   Lightening in that bat.

[Sports Guy]

This is the article I was referring to:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37901894/how-new-york-yankees-mets-change-mlb-draft?platform=amp
 

Why now?

There's a couple key reasons this idea came up in conversations with scouts this spring. First, and simply enough: This is the best draft in about a decade, so you'll get a little more bang for your buck. On top of that, the strength of this year's class is prep position players slotted in the late first- to second-round range. That matters here because prep players are easier to move down the board due to bonus demands associated with college leverage. Also, because they aren't pitchers, these players come with more universal trade value if you're enacting this strategy for a quicker return via trade. Lastly, next year's draft (i.e. one of the picks you'd lose in the penalty) doesn't look particularly great, so teams could think of it as a reallocation of draft resources, pulling the future into the present.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Love the Nimmala swing and power potential.  Don’t know if he’ll actually hit but the O’s seem to have a pretty good feel for that.    I think he’s one of the highest upside picks in the draft and most think he can stick at SS.   Lightening in that bat.

I love Nimmala's marketing potential. 

If he pans out it could help open a market of a billion.

[SpOkane]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, the talk is that you could see high end HS bats fall to the second and third rounds because of all the college players and the demands of the HS kids.

I read an article last week that speculated the Yankees could just go nuts on this draft and just punt the next few drafts because of the penalties they would get for going way over slot this year.

But the thought was that this is the best draft we have seen in a long time and it may be worth it for a team to do that.

Now, I’m not suggesting the Os do that but I have no problem is spend all their money on just 3-4 players and then just take college seniors with the rest of their top 10 picks and pay them 25-100k bonuses.

Those guys have zero leverage, so they will sign and if they don’t, who cares if you are able to get 3-4 top 75ish talents.

If Elias decided to do that (which I doubt he will do), I would welcome that.

Hadn't heard that about the Yankees. Would be interesting to see it tried.

[Can_of_corn]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, the talk is that you could see high end HS bats fall to the second and third rounds because of all the college players and the demands of the HS kids.

I read an article last week that speculated the Yankees could just go nuts on this draft and just punt the next few drafts because of the penalties they would get for going way over slot this year.

But the thought was that this is the best draft we have seen in a long time and it may be worth it for a team to do that.

Now, I’m not suggesting the Os do that but I have no problem is spend all their money on just 3-4 players and then just take college seniors with the rest of their top 10 picks and pay them 25-100k bonuses.

Those guys have zero leverage, so they will sign and if they don’t, who cares if you are able to get 3-4 top 75ish talents.

If Elias decided to do that (which I doubt he will do), I would welcome that.

If they don't sign you lose the slot money so you would run into the penalty.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

Hadn't heard that about the Yankees. Would be interesting to see it tried.

Kiley broke it down by groups of teams…the Os made the cut of one of the 10 teams but as he broke down the list further, he came to the conclusion that the Yankees are the only team that would “likely” do this.

There is merit to it. It’s not like you won’t have drafts the next few years but you would lose your first rounder.  If you deem that you can get multiple HS players that are first round picks in other years, why not do this?

I tend to doubt it happens but it’s an interesting idea.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they don't sign you lose the slot money so you would run into the penalty.

You aren’t doing this without knowing you are going to sign them.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You aren’t doing this without knowing you are going to sign them.

Sure but you basically said who cares if they don't sign.

They need to sign them.

[SpOkane]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure but you basically said who cares if they don't sign.

They need to sign them.

In this scenario, I suppose the "safe" blow your pool strategy is to draft all HS players with high bonus demands who fall to rounds 11-20 and meet their demands. If they have no intention of signing, because you know, they are a good kid with a conscience and hate the Yankees, nothing lost on the Yankees end.

[Just Regular]

Kiley has been writing the blow up the draft article a number of years.    Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo are a couple good real life examples that helped me get the gist of it...the idea is you just take them all and pay them all.    

Last year Cohen and the Mets were the ideal case in the 2022 article, but he, like everyone ever, didn't do it.     I've seen it enough years I kind of hear the story like it is an annual roast of the "these slots are only recommendations, Clubs could do more if they wanted, definitely not a valued labor cost saving mechanism, wink wink".

One of the stories some years ago gamed out how competitors have counter moves.    By the 3rd round, generally everyone knows who Coby Mayo is, and what your pool is.     The scenario ran like if NYY went overslot in Round 1, 2 and 3....Andrew Friedman and Mike Elias and the MLB Owners Labor committee can go hmmmm, and then in Round 4 everybody takes Coby Mayo even if 29 other Clubs won't meet the Top 50 high school players ask.    And the recruiting directors at Auburn and Florida rejoice.

But yea, a draft with 20 Gunnar Hendersons would be sweet.    Its basically what Preller did with the IFA market that one year.    I get the fun of rooting for it to happen, but believe everyone will color inside the lines.     Hank has been a good company man more than George, something I hope will keep up all decade.

[Paul in Virginia]

MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis talks Orioles draft - BaltimoreBaseball.com

 

Callis: “I don’t think it’s necessarily a specific demographic, like a college bat. Let’s say the draft unfolds according to chalk, and the guys you think are going to be gone are gone. It’s a weird draft for pitchers. Paul Skenes could go No. 1 out of LSU and then the next two college guys are [Wake Forest pitcher] Rhett Lowder and [Tennessee pitcher] Chase Dollander in either order. I don’t think they’re going to get anywhere close to Baltimore. I think everybody from 11, 12, 13, 15, 16 all hopes one of those guys falls to them and they’re not going to. [Florida’s Hurston] Waldrep’s the fourth guy, and then there might not be another college pitcher taken in the first round. I keep giving them Hurston Waldep at 17.

“To be honest, and part of that might be, I feel like they need pitching more than hitting. I think they have interest in him. I don’t know that he’s definitely their guy. You don’t draft for need. That wouldn’t be overdrafting him, but the fit. Look at all the young position players they have. They can use pitching.

“If it’s not Waldrep, I keep coming up with high school hitters, which is not so much that the Orioles are targeting high school hitters as that’s going to be the strength of the draft at that point of the draft. There are younger guys like Arjun Nimmala the high school shortstop from Florida, Aidan Miller, he’s a high school third baseman from Florida who is the best hitter on the Showcase Circuit. He’s had a broken hamate this year. People are knocking him down because they didn’t get to see him play, but they saw him rake all last summer. You know he can hit.

 

[Sports Guy]

Law’s latest mock 

17. Baltimore Orioles – Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU

If you’re asking me to bet on a category, I’d still bet they’re more likely to take a hitter than a pitcher, but Floyd has flown up everyone’s boards lately and he does have the fastball characteristics that the Orioles seem to value. If they go bat, it could be Houck, Arjun Nimmala or Eldridge, or maybe they just take any good college bat who slides like Troy or Shaw.

https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/?source=user_shared_article

 

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Law’s latest mock 

17. Baltimore Orioles – Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU

If you’re asking me to bet on a category, I’d still bet they’re more likely to take a hitter than a pitcher, but Floyd has flown up everyone’s boards lately and he does have the fastball characteristics that the Orioles seem to value. If they go bat, it could be Houck, Arjun Nimmala or Eldridge, or maybe they just take any good college bat who slides like Troy or Shaw.

https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/?source=user_shared_article

 

Law is out on an island with that one. Haven't seen anyone else with Floyd in the first round.

[Rbiggs2525]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Law is out on an island with that one. Haven't seen anyone else with Floyd in the first round.

I was saying that a few weeks ago. He reminds me of Cade Horton last year. If he could agree on around 3 million dollar deal that would be great money to save for overslot picks later. What he did to Florida was special.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I was saying that a few weeks ago. He reminds me of Cade Horton last year. If he could agree on around 3 million dollar deal that would be great money to save for overslot picks later. What he did to Florida was special.

For me, I don’t think he’s really close to Cade Horton, but that game against Florida was nice. Horton was dominant with the FB/slider combo for about a half season. Late life and command. Floyd has a nice hoppy FB, but Florida helped him out a lot.

If that is the pick, it would be very surprising to me. Not a total shock due to the hop on the FB.