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Has Gunnar's struggles slowed the promotion of other O's prospects?

wildcard

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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2 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

 

The strategy is to hoard prospects because they are cheap and under team control. Most will fail, some will succeed. If you simply hoard and stockpile top prospects you're bound to find a couple who succeed.

They can’t succeed if you don’t play them.

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Pickles
Pickles

No, because Elias surely had a plan in place for prospects individually. What it should have done, but hasn't really, is educate the board on why you don't just roll with a lineup of 4-6 rookies

Bemorewins
Bemorewins

If you look at the situation from an industry wide view as opposed to is being a simple Orioles centric issue, you will find that Gunnar and Grayson’s struggles are pretty much par for the course. The

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

No. Elias isn't stupid.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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2 hours ago, Pickles said:

These positions aren't as exclusive as you're making them out to be.

Yes, it's awesome we have the #1 farm system and so many good young prospects.

It's also true that most prospects fail, and appropriate caution should be used in regards to their future production.

1) yes, most fail which is why it’s foolish for so many to push back on trades.  That’s another inconsistent thing so many do.

2) They can’t succeed or fail if they don’t play. If you want to play the contend card, when are they ever going to play these kids?  

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

1) yes, most fail which is why it’s foolish for so many to push back on trades.  That’s another inconsistent thing so many do.

2) They can’t succeed or fail if they don’t play. If you want to play the contend card, when are they ever going to play these kids?  

I think it would be a lot better if they failed next  season when I would hope the team is fighting for the division title.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) yes, most fail which is why it’s foolish for so many to push back on trades.  That’s another inconsistent thing so many do.

2) They can’t succeed or fail if they don’t play. If you want to play the contend card, when are they ever going to play these kids?  

Guys opportunities are going to vary and yeah, a lot is going to depend on what they do with it.

Stowers got a little run earlier.  Did nothing with it.  So his opportunities were curtailed.

Vavra is getting some run.  Kind of a mixed bag, but maybe setting him up for something bigger in the future.

Ortiz got some run.  He'll some more later this year.

So imo that's how guys are going to be incorporated.  Slowly and a few at a time.

It's going to be the rare, rare prospect who is going to be given an everyday job upon arrival in the big leagues.  That list is probably three long: Rutschman, Henderson, and Holliday.

Everybody else is going to get opportunities depending on the big league club's needs.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it would be a lot better if they failed next  season when I would hope the team is fighting for the division title.

Personally, I think we're fighting for a divisional title this year.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going off of what Elias said.

I also don't think anyone is catching the Rays.

The odds aren't in our favor, which is all Elias acknowledged in the first place, but we're 3.5 games out with 2/3s of the season left to play.  The division is most certainly in play.

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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I alluded to this idea a while back.  @RZNJsaid this past offseason that he doubted Elias will turn over the bulk of the IF to rookies.  He was right.  I don’t think Elias wants an unstable floor.  
 

So, in theory, a more solidified Gunnar would allow for increased risks at other positions.  Sure each roster spot/position is considered individually, but there’s a chance some type of holistic measurement is at play too.  Just a thought that’s loosely held…

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deward Major Leaguer Rising Star

deward

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20 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Video I was talking about.  Coverage of Gunnar starts about 11:35

Gunnar is hitting .074 avg/.185 slg on breaking pitches (obp not given)

..176 avg./235 slg on offspeed.

Those numbers against offspeed pitches don't match what Baseball Savant shows. BS has him at .281 avg/.531 slg against offspeed in 2023. I guess it's a small enough sample size that last night's HR off a change-up swung it quite a bit. The numbers against breaking stuff are still bad, but most hitters have some weakness. The big difference between this year and last year is that he isn't pounding fastballs the way he did last September. His whiff % on fastballs (25% last year vs 32% this year) is the biggest change I see. When he does hit them, his avg EV hasn't changed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gunnar-henderson-683002?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

image.thumb.png.58f1bff327144c916d371d48303776fb.png

image.thumb.png.27ce23b60282aaf7f6c85314ec3800ce.png

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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2 minutes ago, deward said:

Those numbers against offspeed pitches don't match what Baseball Savant shows. BS has him at .281 avg/.531 slg against offspeed in 2023. I guess it's a small enough sample size that last night's HR off a change-up swung it quite a bit. The numbers against breaking stuff are still bad, but most hitters have some weakness. The big difference between this year and last year is that he isn't pounding fastballs the way he did last September. His whiff % on fastballs (25% last year vs 32% this year) is the biggest change I see. When he does hit them, his avg EV hasn't changed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gunnar-henderson-683002?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

image.thumb.png.58f1bff327144c916d371d48303776fb.png

image.thumb.png.27ce23b60282aaf7f6c85314ec3800ce.png

Numbers were a couple weeks old.  Maybe the guy on the video got his stats from somewhere else, but they are very good analysts on prospects and I listen to them a lot.  I seriously doubt Gunnar is hitting offspeed to an .800 OPS after struggling so mighty early in the year.  Will have to look into it more because he has really struggled at "hitting" and has only been saved by his ability to draw walks.

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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What pitches are included in "breaking" pitches?  I assume curveball, slider, forkball.  I'm sure I'm missing others.  Listening to this video, it was educational how much young hitters struggle against a good slider.  Some experienced hitters never learn to hit a good slider (Jones and Mountcastle are prime examples).  I'm sure a major key to hitting sliders is laying off sliders outside the zone. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Guys opportunities are going to vary and yeah, a lot is going to depend on what they do with it.

Stowers got a little run earlier.  Did nothing with it.  So his opportunities were curtailed.

Vavra is getting some run.  Kind of a mixed bag, but maybe setting him up for something bigger in the future.

Ortiz got some run.  He'll some more later this year.

So imo that's how guys are going to be incorporated.  Slowly and a few at a time.

It's going to be the rare, rare prospect who is going to be given an everyday job upon arrival in the big leagues.  That list is probably three long: Rutschman, Henderson, and Holliday.

Everybody else is going to get opportunities depending on the big league club's needs.

The club has major and obvious needs right now and have all season, despite the winning, and they still aren’t getting their chances. 

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