Moves in the near term

[ChosenOne21]

I know he's doing great in the minors, but I don't get the Vespi love. Long-term he's probably a last-or-second-last out of the pen guy on a good team.

Unless something has changed since last year...

[Aristotelian]

With Gunnar out at a minimum don't we need a backup SS? If we call up Ortiz or Westburg might as well give them some run as the starter.

[ChosenOne21]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

With Gunnar out at a minimum don't we need a backup SS? If we call up Ortiz or Westburg might as well give them some run as the starter.

My guess is, absent a roster move, that's Urias

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

My guess is, absent a roster move, that's Urias

I feel one coming. The new travel director could really make an impact if they can get Ortiz or Westburg to the west coast in time for today's game!

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I know he's doing great in the minors, but I don't get the Vespi love. Long-term he's probably a last-or-second-last out of the pen guy on a good team.

Unless something has changed since last year...

I think, at this point, he’s an upgrade over Perez and Akin.

[forphase1]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Wait… You want to give away Urias who won the GG last year? Or Frazier who has helped us win games this year? For nothing? Please help me understand the logic of this.

I can understand your frustrations with Mateo. I believe that his leash is getting much shorter. 

But if we jettison 2/3 Major League infielders for little to no compensation. What is your plan if the young players struggle and have to be sent back like Grayson? 

Also, could you foresee a scenario where Westburg and Ortiz struggle out of the gate for a while like Gunnar or worse? We would then be getting very little offense (even less than now) from our infield? Do you think that we could when at our current clip if that were to take place?

Lastly, if all of our prospects are brought up and the vets pushed aside, what would be your plan to acquire a serious starting pitching upgrade? Seeing as the vets could not bring back that kind of haul in a trade. Do you think starting pitching is not that big of a team need compared to possible slight improvement in offensive production?

First,  as I said,  in most cases we wouldn't be getting rid of them,  just lowering their playing time.   Urias and Mateo can stay on the roster,  just in more of a platoon/back up/role player.   I WOULD trade them too if the deal was right,  but they have value for the team,  though maybe not in constant starters role, especially with Mateo.  Frazier should have never been signed in the first place,  and while he's performed ok, .700 OPS, it's still below the league average of .728.  For Mateo and Frazier I think Ortiz and Westburg would improve the lineup while not really costing us much, if anything,  in the field.  Mateo has been that bad and I believe Westburg would be that good.  For me I'd trade/cut Frazier, use Mateo as a pinch runner/defense type with Urias getting the extra starts when Westburg/Ortiz/Henderson needs a day off.  To make room Frazier is gone and Vavra is optioned as having Urias and Mateo used like this makes Vavra not needed.   

 

Second,  could they struggle?  Sure.  I'd rather them struggle now than in August.  That said we aren't asking them to replace great hitters.   Mateo and his .ops since May shouldn't be difficult for Ortiz to match or better, even if he struggles a bit, and the .700 Frazier has put up this year isn't a super high bar to clear either.   There is no guarantee that they will do it,  but that's one reason why Urias and Mateo don't have to be cut or traded, just moved into lesser roles.   They are there to help if the kids show they are overmatched.  I think that's very unlikely,  but isn't impossible of course.

 

Third, I think the lineup is an easier fix for us than the starting rotation.  We have the pieces in place already,  so use them.   That still leaves us with a deep farm system we can tap into if needed to shore up the pitching if we go that route.  I'm not against trading Westburg or Ortiz if the value is there.  Not many are untouchable for me,  though it'd take a good deal to get them imo.  Plus if you ask me,  I'd rather improve a position that plays almost every day versus just every 5th day.   I think adding a solid, consistent .700 ops or so at SS versus the sub .300 ops Mateo will win us more games overall than adding a #2/3 level starter,  which is likely what we get.   I doubt we are willing to pay the price for a true #1.  

[rm5678]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I feel one coming. The new travel director could really make an impact if they can get Ortiz or Westburg to the west coast in time for today's game!

Ortiz has been sick and hasn't played in Norfolk since getting sent down. So he will definitely not be traveling to SF.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Hyde said it’s day to day and with the tomorrow day off… I imagine literally nothing will happen between now and Tuesday (other than Coulombe reinstated and someone sent down).

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

First,  as I said,  in most cases we wouldn't be getting rid of them,  just lowering their playing time.   Urias and Mateo can stay on the roster,  just in more of a platoon/back up/role player.   I WOULD trade them too if the deal was right,  but they have value for the team,  though maybe not in constant starters role, especially with Mateo.  Frazier should have never been signed in the first place,  and while he's performed ok, .700 OPS, it's still below the league average of .728.  For Mateo and Frazier I think Ortiz and Westburg would improve the lineup while not really costing us much, if anything,  in the field.  Mateo has been that bad and I believe Westburg would be that good.  For me I'd trade/cut Frazier, use Mateo as a pinch runner/defense type with Urias getting the extra starts when Westburg/Ortiz/Henderson needs a day off.  To make room Frazier is gone and Vavra is optioned as having Urias and Mateo used like this makes Vavra not needed.   

 

Second,  could they struggle?  Sure.  I'd rather them struggle now than in August.  That said we aren't asking them to replace great hitters.   Mateo and his .ops since May shouldn't be difficult for Ortiz to match or better, even if he struggles a bit, and the .700 Frazier has put up this year isn't a super high bar to clear either.   There is no guarantee that they will do it,  but that's one reason why Urias and Mateo don't have to be cut or traded, just moved into lesser roles.   They are there to help if the kids show they are overmatched.  I think that's very unlikely,  but isn't impossible of course.

 

Third, I think the lineup is an easier fix for us than the starting rotation.  We have the pieces in place already,  so use them.   That still leaves us with a deep farm system we can tap into if needed to shore up the pitching if we go that route.  I'm not against trading Westburg or Ortiz if the value is there.  Not many are untouchable for me,  though it'd take a good deal to get them imo.  Plus if you ask me,  I'd rather improve a position that plays almost every day versus just every 5th day.   I think adding a solid, consistent .700 ops or so at SS versus the sub .300 ops Mateo will win us more games overall than adding a #2/3 level starter,  which is likely what we get.   I doubt we are willing to pay the price for a true #1.  

I appreciate you detailing your plan/thoughts!

I don’t believe that there is any realistic scenario in which we cut Frazier. Sadly, he is one of the highest salaried players on the team.

Second, Westburg is likely to carry the most value of the 4 infield players discussed (himself, Ortiz, Mateo, Urias), it’s a toss up IMO between Ortiz and Urias for who has the most value after that. I don’t believe Mateo has any trade value. Thus if we were to look to get a valued starting pitching piece we would have to start with the more value assets like him. IMO - Holliday, Cowser, and Kjerstad are the prospects that I prefer not to touch/trade.

Lastly, I TOTALLY DISAGREE with your evaluation of starting pitching. In the post season, it will likely matter the most. We are not equipped currently (given the starting pitching that we have) to win 3 rounds in the American League postseason. We would be outgunned/outmanned in every single series given what our competitors have in the starting pitching department.

[forphase1]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Lastly, I TOTALLY DISAGREE with your evaluation of starting pitching. In the post season, it will likely matter the most. We are not equipped currently (given the starting pitching that we have) to win 3 rounds in the American League postseason. We would be outgunned/outmanned in every single series given what our competitors have in the starting pitching department.

We have to make the playoffs first before a post season pitching match up matters.  I'm not sure we yet make the playoffs,  not with having so many poor performers in the lineup right now.   We are in a great position for now,  but teams behind us are gaining ground as we aren't winning at the same pace.   There is a combination of reasons,  with starting pitching,  bullpen and offensive production all having blame for our recent issues.   The lineup is something we can address immediately with internal options and therefore we should.  

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

We have to make the playoffs first before a post season pitching match up matters.  I'm not sure we yet make the playoffs,  not with having so many poor performers in the lineup right now.   We are in a great position for now,  but teams behind us are gaining ground as we aren't winning at the same pace.   There is a combination of reasons,  with starting pitching,  bullpen and offensive production all having blame for our recent issues.   The lineup is something we can address immediately with internal options and therefore we should.  

Good pitching will almost always beat good hitting. IMO the lineup changes that you suggest are only going to give us at best a slight offensive output. However a true front of the rotation pitching IMO will make more of a difference. For one it will help the bullpen because we will have then 2 pitchers who can give us consistent length (as opposed to just 1 now). And it will keep us in more games taking pressure off of the offense.

[ChuckS]

Cowser up on Tuesday after the off day?

Not out of the question. 

[forphase1]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Good pitching will almost always beat good hitting. IMO the lineup changes that you suggest are only going to give us at best a slight offensive output. However a true front of the rotation pitching IMO will make more of a difference. For one it will help the bullpen because we will have then 2 pitchers who can give us consistent length (as opposed to just 1 now). And it will keep us in more games taking pressure off of the offense.

I disagree as replacing .300 ops Mateo with a .700+ bat is a huge difference.   A #1 starting pitcher would make a huge difference no question.   But we don't have one of those at the moment while we can make needed offensive changes now.   And,  still, that pitcher only directly impacts one out of five games,  not counting any longer term bullpen help, if applicable.  Replacing Mateo could make a difference 3-4 times each game.   Larger impact there IMO.

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I disagree as replacing .300 ops Mateo with a .700+ bat is a huge difference.   A #1 starting pitcher would make a huge difference no question.   But we don't have one of those at the moment while we can make needed offensive changes now.   And,  still, that pitcher only directly impacts one out of five games,  not counting any longer term bullpen help, if applicable.  Replacing Mateo could make a difference 3-4 times each game.   Larger impact there IMO.

I don’t think it is a stretch to believe that Ortiz can outhit Mateo. But you and I both know Mateo is not a .300 OPS and it is uncertain if Ortiz can be .700 or better right out of the shoot.

As far as the pitcher goes, we are just going to have to agree to disagree there. IMO we need one and need to try to get a hold of one at the deadline if we have plans of advancing in October.

Also, something else to consider, whoever plays/stays at SS this season, it is a VERY short term proposition. Holliday will be displacing WHOEVER is there next year. So if I have to scrape by this year, I’m willing to consider trading the better:more valuable player. Because I know next year it won’t really matter as the position will be Holliday’s.

[terpoh]

I would think that Elias will want to get Cowser through some full games this week (pulled him early both yesterday and today) but I see no reason whatsoever that Colton should not be starting in CF next weekend.