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Yes, I'm trashing Elias at all, in fact, I'd love to hear he signed a 10 year contract here. I'm just bringing up some facts and concerns about their focus of drafting college hitters and their inability to draft and develop pitching. Elias and company absolutely put the Orioles where they are with the drafting of Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser to a lesser extent. All of them have contributed mightily to the Orioles success and Ortiz got the team a year of Burnes which also will help. But we can't turn a blind eye to the Orioles struggles in the bullpen right now and not look at why there is no real help in the system from the pitching side that they drafted and developed. I just thought it was worth a conversation. -
By Sports Guy · Posted
The good news is that we still control all of these guys, outside of Santander, beyond this year. That’s good because it allows them to trade later if needs be. But I agree. I would be shopping some of these vets for help now and the future. -
I agree but some of the pressure is off with hitting the homer. Now maybe he gets some more hits and raises his averages. -
By DrungoHazewood · Posted
Randomly pick a year, any year: 2010, round 3. JT Realmuto is the only 2010 3rd rounder with a career value over six wins. Of the 34 picks in that round, 30 of them have a career value under three wins. 2007, round 2. Freeman, Stanton, Zimmerman and Cozart were good to great. But Josh Fields (1.8 WAR for his entire career) was the 6th-best player taken that round. About half never appeared in the majors at all. 2013, round 4. Bellinger and Kiner Falefa are over 10 wins. But just six players got a single win in their careers. More than half never appeared in the majors at all. Jonah Heim, the O's pick later traded for Steve Pearce, with a .682 career OPS is the 4th-most valuable player taken in that round. 2015, round 2. Brady Singer (7.6 WAR) is the best player taken in that round. Scott Kingery is the only player from the round who's played 300 MLB games. 2005, round 2. Yunel Escobar and Chase Headley had good careers. Nobody else made 10 wins. More than half never appeared in the majors. 1995, round 4. Russ Ortiz and Adam Everett are the only players who had a career over replacement level. 1989, round 3. Pretty great round with Olerud, Salmon, Neagle, Shane Reynolds, and Phil Nevin. But even with that 19 of the 25 players taken were worth 2 wins or less, with the majority never appearing in the majors. You could keep going like this forever... A majority of 2nd rounders have little to no career value in the majors, and that number goes up with each succeeding round. If a team is getting some kind of value out of a 2nd or 3rd rounder every few years they're doing better than most. -
Do we have one of those? -
The Orioles definitely have their philosophy and metrics they look for in hitters and pitching. The results have spoken on the pitching side so far and as I showed, there is not a ton of successes, especially lately with drafting college bats after the first round. While I have no opinion of Boddy's knowledge of pitching development, at the end of the day, where are the results? You can look at a computer screen and compu-data all day long, but until you start developing real major league pitchers, it's just data babble. We've had all this technology and not a single pitcher has suddenly become an outstanding major league pitcher. Heck, not one has made it yet. I've watched guys and see guys with some good pitches, but they struggle with consistency. Now most minor league pitchers struggle with consistency which is why they are in the minors, but it would be nice to have a few guys that you could point to and say, see, we developed that guy into an impact major league reliever. It's been 5 years of drafting and the closest pitcher Elias has drafted to the major leagues is probably Kade Strowd (though Brandon Young could be interesting at some point this year in the pen -Note Young was a 2020 COVID free agent signee vs a draft pick, but would have been drafted).
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I think Elias may be trading Hays and Mullins this off season looking to get prospects in return. Much like he sis with Mancini and Lopez getting Cano, Povich, McDermott and Johnson.
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