John Angelos continues to remind us how awful he is

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

This is unquestionably true in my opinion. I haven’t read every post in this thread, but according to Statista (who I can vouch for the accuracy of), the Orioles already have the 10th highest average ticket price in MLB.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193673/average-ticket-price-in-the-mlb-by-team/

And when they sell more of them, they will be fine.

But the team had a 160+M payroll not long ago. If you think PA was operating at a loss, you are fooling yourself.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

My belief is that Gunnar would sign a 7 year deal, which allows him to still sign a mega deal before turning 30.

He’s going to make 45-50M the next 5 years if things go right. Put on 2 more years at an aav of 30ishM per year and that is a deal that would very hard to say no too.

As you said, you are basically guaranteeing him best case scenario. It’s not even a bargain for the Os. You just hope you get out in front of rising salaries in years to come and 28-33M a year is a bargain price.

If you are lucky, you can squeeze out an 8th year and that be your “bargain” year.

My belief is that Boras would advise Gunnar to not sign anything that would delay his free agency.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My belief is that Boras would advise Gunnar to not sign anything that would delay his free agency.

He may…but that really doesn’t mean anything since he is not the one signing the contract.

Also, Boras has had clients sign pre FA extensions before, so this whole thought that Boras would instruct him to not do so is a fallacy.

Now, I do think thinking you could get him for 9-10 years is a bit naive. That is eating too many free agency years and having him sign his next deal in his early 30s.

But a 7 year deal for $100-110M gives him generational wealth and keeps him in line for a 10+ year deal for $400+M down the road.

Think about it this way.

Right now, the elite guys are making 35-45M a year. Gunnar is good and trending towards elite but obviously he’s not there yet. Where will elite be in 7-8 years?  Who knows but probably 50+M.

So, Gunnar loses 2 years where, in a best case scenario world, he could make 50ishM a year.

With the contract Im saying, that would have him losing about 40M for 2 years.  However, that assumes many many things and basically he’s also guaranteeing himself the top arb prices and FA pricing that is very close to current elite money. That is a lot of best case scenario to say to just so you can maybe be in position to make an extra 40M.

 I know 40M is a lot but so is 100+M and having that security while also knowing you can secure a major deal anyway is a lot to say no to.

[wildcard]

So far Elias has traded O's player that are approaching free agency for Bradish, Seth Johnson, McDermott, Povich and Juan Nunez (currently  29th on the O's prospect list9.    

In addition to that Elias has signed the follow international players.    Numbers are where these players are currently rank of the MLB Pipeline O's top 30 prospects:

5.   Basallo   19 years old

17.  Tavera  18 years old

19. Arias   18 years old

24. Bencosme  20 years old

26. Almeyda 17 years old     Signed as a free agent

27. De Leon   20 years 

Total of 11 players.

Elias is finding players from other places than the draft.

[Sports Guy]

I would also go to Boras at the same time with an 8-9 year offer for Holliday with the thought that he is on the OD roster and the service time clock starts from day 1 next year.

8/120 with a 9th year option for 40M would be something I would be looking into.

Even if the 9th year happens, he (like Gunnar) will be able to sign a lucrative long term deal before the age of 30.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So far Elias has traded O's player that are approaching free agency for Bradish, Seth Johnson, McDermott, Povich and Juan Nunez (currently  29th on the O's prospect list9.    

In addition to that Elias has signed the follow international players.    Numbers are where these players are currently rank of the MLB Pipeline O's top 30 prospects:

5.   Basallo   19 years old

17.  Tavera  18 years old

19. Arias   18 years old

24. Bencosme  20 years old

26. Almeyda 17 years old     Signed as a free agent

27. De Leon   20 years 

Total of 11 players.

Elias is finding players from other places than the draft.

And?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think Angelos wants to do it.  I personally think they're a little gun shy about the Chris Davis deal and how that backfired.  

There is probably some truth to this.   The simple answer is, Elias will know when signing a long term deal is a bad risk.   He's both cautious and extremely analytical.  If he believes in pulling the trigger, ownership should say yes.

The Davis deal was stupid the day the ink was dry.  It was a surprise that it turned out as terribly as it did, but it was always doomed to be a loser.  Too many years and too much money for a player as inconsistent as Davis.

[AdamK]

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He may…but that really doesn’t mean anything since he is not the one signing the contract.

Also, Boras has had clients sign pre FA extensions before, so this whole thought that Boras would instruct him to not do so is a fallacy.

Now, I do think thinking you could get him for 9-10 years is a bit naive. That is eating too many free agency years and having him sign his next deal in his early 30s.

But a 7 year deal for $100-110M gives him generational wealth and keeps him in line for a 10+ year deal for $400+M down the road.

Think about it this way.

Right now, the elite guys are making 35-45M a year. Gunnar is good and trending towards elite but obviously he’s not there yet. Where will elite be in 7-8 years?  Who knows but probably 50+M.

So, Gunnar loses 2 years where, in a best case scenario world, he could make 50ishM a year.

With the contract Im saying, that would have him losing about 40M for 2 years.  However, that assumes many many things and basically he’s also guaranteeing himself the top arb prices and FA pricing that is very close to current elite money. That is a lot of best case scenario to say to just so you can maybe be in position to make an extra 40M.

 I know 40M is a lot but so is 100+M and having that security while also knowing you can secure a major deal anyway is a lot to say no to.

Gunnar signed with Boras to get the most money.  I don't think he turns around and signs for less by not going to free agent.   Just not the way Boras plays the game.

Edited August 22, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar signed with Boras to get the most month.  I don't think he turns around and signs for less by not going to free agent.   Just not the way Boras plays the game.

Again, this is factually wrong and you don’t know that he would be getting less. You are only looking at the absolute best case scenario.

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar signed with Boras to get the most month.  I don't think he turns around and signs for less by not going to free agent.   Just not the way Boras plays the game.

Boras clients have signed pre-FA extensions before.

 

The only question is whether the Orioles (and by extension Angelos) will open their pocketbooks enough to get Henderson to agree.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Hallas said:

Boras clients have signed pre-FA extensions before.

 

The only question is whether the Orioles (and by extension Angelos) will open their pocketbooks enough to get Henderson to agree.

I don’t get why this is a concept so few fail to grasp.
 

Also, Gunnar is surrounded by many close friends on this team. He may just want to stay and ignore the advice of his agent anyway. 
 

Either way, there is precedent (multiple of them) that Boras clients sign pre FA deals and it’s still Gunnar’s decision anyway.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And?

 Elias knows that drafting low does not get the same quality players that drafting high does.  

1. So he will trade players approaching FA  for prospects that his scouts and analytics say will develop into good MLB players.   

2.  He also is signing international players he thinks he can develop into MLB players.

That is the plan to keep the O's farm system and the major league team at or near the top in the rankings.    

He may not have the money to sign his players before they go to FA but he can keep find young players to replacement them.  Bradish becoming one the the best starters in the majors is just the beginning.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, this is factually wrong and you don’t know that he would be getting less. You are only looking at the absolute best case scenario.

You just said he would get less.   Read your own posts.

[SemperFi]

8 minutes ago, AdamK said:

I think that is light, I don't think that includes the Disney money $30m or any corporate sponsorship deals which has to be $15m? plus.  Also "gameday sales" I would assume includes ticket revenue-assuming 2.0m in attendance at $40 per seat seems low to me-remember revenue per seat suffered in previous years as they had to offer discounts to drive traffic.  Tickets sold going forward will not be at a discount.