Cowser-Norby platoon in left in 2024?

[Sports Guy]

You don’t need to platoon Cowser

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, Malike said:

I'd hope they are trading for equal value, not trading prospects for 30 year old starters. Teams that are backlogged in the minors with pitching like we are with hitting would probably be the best fit.

I wonder if a deal could be worked out with the Angels who drafted nothing but pitchers a couple of years ago.

[RZNJ]

What I suspect is that you won’t see too many prospects starting out at the same time.   Westburg likely has a good chance of locking down 2B or 3B next spring.  I think Kjerstad has a chance of getting time at the outfield corners and DH but not a full time starting job at one position.  Cowser, Mayo, and Holliday probably start at Norfolk next year.   Norby and Stowers are either gone in trades or return to Norfolk as well.   I think Joey Ortiz is either traded or starts off as a backup IF in Baitimore.

[webbrick2010]

If Hicks is on the 26 man roster next year I will be very dissapointed. He shouldn't be on the playoff roster. He is regressing to his mean of the past two seasons with the Yankees which means below average offense and defense. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

If Hicks is on the 26 man roster next year I will be very dissapointed. He shouldn't be on the playoff roster. He is regressing to his mean of the past two seasons with the Yankees which means below average offense and defense. 

In what way is Hicks regressing to the mean?  He had an .826 OPS in September.  There’s no doubt at all that he’ll be on the playoff roster.   

As to next year, I’d probably let him go to clear room for Kjerstad and Cowser.   But, it’s not that easy a decision.  Put it this way: with their 101 win season, the judgment of Elias and Hyde have earned a lot of deference.   If they decide it’s worthwhile to bring Hicks back, I’ll assume they have looked carefully at all the underlying data and have concluded that there’s more substance than fluke to Hicks’ turnaround after joining the O’s.  We’ll see.  It’s just one of many interesting decisions to be made this offseason. 
 

[Sports Guy]

Yea Hicks doesn’t have a spot next year unless a lot of moves are made.

[btdart20]

37 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

If Hicks is on the 26 man roster next year I will be very dissapointed. He shouldn't be on the playoff roster. He is regressing to his mean of the past two seasons with the Yankees which means below average offense and defense. 

2019-2022 his triple slash is .220/.334/.367 with an OPS+ of 96.  That's pretty close league average as 4th OFer.  And plays even more vs. LHP with a career .253/.334/.424.

I guess it depends on where we're cherry-picking our stats.  In Sept, he's .303/.432/.394 (including the last 4 games he's played).   If we're only looking since 9/26, he's .000/.154/.000.  SSS is a beast.

I don't think he's so easily dismissed in 2024 as many seem to think.  His value to the org depends on what happens with Hays and/or Santander this offseason IMO because they are the only OFers who can hit from the right side.  If either of them are traded (assuming for a non-OFer), then I think Hicks is back.  At that point, Hicks will get similar PAs as he did in 2023 on a competitive team.  And he's a solid floor matchup driven platoony-toon option.

I suspect the SigBot values his 90+ percentile BB% and 90+ percentile low Chase% while a LHP is on the mound much more than we think (toss in 90+ percentile arm strength for good measure).  See 2022/23 Frazier signing for profile type.

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

What I suspect is that you won’t see too many prospects starting out at the same time.   Westburg likely has a good chance of locking down 2B or 3B next spring.  I think Kjerstad has a chance of getting time at the outfield corners and DH but not a full time starting job at one position.  Cowser, Mayo, and Holliday probably start at Norfolk next year.   Norby and Stowers are either gone in trades or return to Norfolk as well.   I think Joey Ortiz is either traded or starts off as a backup IF in Baitimore.

Agreed.  It matches the Rookie Integration Program of 2023.  Introducing roster churn risk doesn't fit the profile of the SigBot or norms of contending teams from year to year.  Especially when there are paths to improvement without a ton of turnover.  

Specifically, on Westburg and Kjerstad, they've shown enough to be given a longer leash in 2024.  More than Vavra and Stowers had starting 2023 at least.  

On a related note, do either Mateo or Urias have any team options in 2024?  If so, that helps their case of staying in the org while not blocking Holliday.

[orioles22]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t need to platoon Cowser

Probably true, but I'd like to find Norby some at bats - maybe one or two days a week in left and an occasional start at second. If he's not traded, of course.

[AnythingO's]

39 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

Probably true, but I'd like to find Norby some at bats - maybe one or two days a week in left and an occasional start at second. If he's not traded, of course.

Norby does not have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. That alone seems enough to relegate him to AAA next year to work on his defense at 2B or COF.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

 

On a related note, do either Mateo or Urias have any team options in 2024?  If so, that helps their case of staying in the org while not blocking Holliday.

They are both out of options, which is how we acquired them.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

 

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They are both out of options, which is how we acquired them.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

 

Thanks, not sure why I didn't think about that page.  I look at it quite a bit!

What Elias decides about Urias and Mateo during the off-season will be interesting.

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

Norby does not have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. That alone seems enough to relegate him to AAA next year to work on his defense at 2B or COF.

That would be OK. I just don't want to give him away. Sounded like his defense was improving in left. He hasn't had much experience there.

[Too Tall]

I really like Norby's bat. He was impressive in championship game. Hope we can find a way to keep and use him. Just don't give him away.

[AnythingO's]

Norby's bat is his calling card, I am not qualified if it plays at MLB level but I don't see Mike Elias as ever giving anyone away without suitable return.

[RZNJ]

I had never really looked at Cowsers minor league defensive numbers.  They aren’t always a true indication.  FWIW, Cowsers numbers are pretty poor and add more skepticism about his defense.  In 162 starts in CF in the minors he had more errors (11) than assists (7).   In 30 starts in LF, 3 errors and 0 assists.   Those numbers are concerning especially when you combine them with the eye test.   Maybe Cowser needs time to adjust to ML ballparks and gain experience or maybe he’s just not the defensive player we were led to believe in scouting reports.