How Many Stick Around to Next Year?

[cboemmeljr]

31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Chuck ….nobody is dismissing now. We have almost a week to ponder stuff. I really have no interest in discussing the Jays-Rays series. Whomever we get I’m hoping we destroy them. 

So why not discuss other stuff? There are going to be changes based on Angelos, upgrades Elias would make, etc. If you don’t wish to discuss it why not just ignore the topic? 

Will do.

[Sports Guy]

The 3 vets that to me make the most sense to keep based off of what I expect to see roster wise are Hays, OHearn and Urias.

Mateo could also make sense if you trade one of Ortiz or Westburg and keep Holliday down for 6-8 weeks.

Beyond that, I don’t see keeping any of the vets, including Santander, unless more trades are made and more roster spots are freed up.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The 2 vets that to me make the most sense to keep based off of what I expect to see roster wise are Hays, OHearn and Urias.

2 Vets?

 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

2 Vets?

 

Lol..I added in OHearn after the fact (forgot about him)

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The 2 vets that to me make the most sense to keep based off of what I expect to see roster wise are Hays, OHearn and Urias.

Mateo could also make sense if you trade one of Ortiz or Westburg and keep Holliday down for 6-8 weeks.

Beyond that, I don’t see keeping any of the vets, including Santander, unless more trades are made and more roster spots are freed up.

So you would trade the O's best middle of the order switch hitting run producer in Santander for a rookie or two like Cowser and Kjerstad who probably will have adjustment periods.  And this happening while the O's are competing to win the World Series next year.    Am I understanding correctly?

Edited October 2, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you would trade the O's best middle of the order switch hitting run producer in Santander for a rookie or two like Cowser and Kjerstad who probably will have adjustment periods.  And this happening while the O's are competing to win the World Series next year.    Am I understanding to correctly?

Yea..just like you have you would, so I’m not sure why you are questioning this.

But yes, I think we need to create roster space for the young guys…and Mayo is part of this equation as well.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

1 hour ago, cboemmeljr said:

I get that but we have all off-season to discuss that.  There's Rule 5, free agency, arbitration, etc.  I'm just amazed that the ink hasn't deried on the 2023 story and some are already clamoring/predicting changes.  Why can't we just sit back and see where this ride ends?

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Idaho_OriolesFan
made it less aggressive

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea..just like you have you would, so I’m not sure why you are questioning this.

But yes, I think we need to create roster space for the young guys.

RZNJ brought up that Santander could be kept for 2024 and given a Quality Offer which will net the O's a draft choice after the 1st round.     Considering how key Santander has been to the 2023 team that is pretty attractive.

On making space for Cowser and Kjerstad I look at it this way:

1) If they bring Hicks back he is probably on the injured list for half the season. And he makes the minimum so he can to DFA's at any time he is not productive.

2) For two years in a row Hays has be an All-Star quality player in the first half and injured  or much less productive because his body gets beat up in the 2nd half.

3) Mullins missed month with leg problems.

4) Mountcastle missed time with head and shoulder problems.

5) O'Hearn does not play vs lefties and had a great season after years of being a backup player. Can he do it  again.

6) Santander hobbled his way through 2021.   Will he be healthy all season?

7) McKenna is probably not on the 2024 40 man roster since he is out of options.

There will probably be plenty of space for Cowser and Kjerstad in the OF/DH even if Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, Mountcastle and O'Hearn all return.   Especially since both Cowser and Kjerstad have options.

Edited October 2, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

RZNJ brought up that Santander could be kept for 2024 and given a Quality Offer which will net the O's a draft choice after the 1st round.     Considering how key Santander has been to the 2023 team that is pretty attractive.

On making space for Cowser and Kjerstad I look at it this way:

1) If they bring Hicks back he is probably on the injured list for half the season. And he makes the minimum so he can to DFA's at any time he is not productive.

2) For two years in a row Hays has be an All-Star quality player in the first half and injured  or much less productive because his body gets beat up in the 2nd half.

3) Mullins missed month with leg problems.

4) Mountcastle missed time with head and shoulder problems

5) O'Hearn does not play vs lefties and had a great season after years of being a backup player. Can he do it  again.

6) Santander hobbled his way through 2021.   Will he be healthy all season?

7) McKenna is probably not on the 2024 40 man roster since he is out of options.

There will probably be plenty of space for Cowser and Kjerstad in the OF/DH even if Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, Mountcastle and O'Hearn all return.   Especially since both Cowser and Kjerstand have options.

 You can trade him for more value than a draft pick.  No, maybe you want to keep him for his production and the pick is icing on the cake  but you don’t keep because of the pick. Also, there is no guarantee he turns down the QO. He could have a down year or get hurt, you don’t offer him anything and you lose him for free.

 

So your solution is to keep oft injured and flawed players and that because you do that, you will find your for your stud prospects that have higher upsides?

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 You can trade him for more value than a draft pick.  No, maybe you want to keep him for his production and the pick is icing on the cake  but you don’t keep because of the pick. Also, there is no guarantee he turns down the QO. He could have a down year or get hurt, you don’t offer him anything and you lose him for free.

 

So your solution is to keep oft injured and flawed players and that because you do that, you will find your for your stud prospects that have higher upsides?

I am saying there is risk either way.   Trading Santander's production and expecting Cowser and Kjerstad to replace it is a risk.  And I agree that there is an injury risk of keeping him and going for a QO.  Both should be considered.

Edited October 2, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am saying there is risk either way.   Trading Santander's production and expecting Cowser and Kjerstad to replace it is a risk.  And I agree that there is an injury risk of keeping him and going for a QO.  Both should be considered.

No question. I’m not here to say what I want doesn’t have risk. There is risk in any move you make.

To me, I want to go with the younger positional guys, keep a few votes and upgrade the pitching staff. (Although I’m still doing my due diligence and checking in on the possible availability of Luis Robert)

This is going to be a very different team with no Felix for a whole season and I think we need 1 and likely 2 new starters , along with a few other new bullpen arms.

 

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am saying there is risk either way.   Trading Santander's production and expecting Cowser and Kjerstad to replace it is a risk.  And I agree that there is an injury risk of keeping him and going for a QO.  Both should be considered.

Yeah... Kjerstad "could" be promising but I haven't seen any hard evidence that he will be. I mean, I'm pleasantly surprised every now and again but my heart doesn't leap for joy when we need a hit and he's up. 

[MCO'sFan]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am saying there is risk either way.   Trading Santander's production and expecting Cowser and Kjerstad to replace it is a risk.  And I agree that there is an injury risk of keeping him and going for a QO.  Both should be considered.

I think Santander is traded as well. I am of the opinion that ME will flip soon to be FA for prospects as a general rule. I could be wrong but I just don't see them paying for the last year of Arb which will likely be significant raise. In order to continue to stockpile prospects ME will need to flip vets for prospects. 

[Sports Guy]

The reality is that the Os have Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, Ortiz and ,Basallo and OFers like Bradfield, Beavers and Fabian that can all be big time contributors sometime in the next year or so..obviously some sooner than others.

At some point, you may trade some of them but the ones you keep you have to make room for and there isn’t going to be a time where you say, well we are contending so do you do it now? It’s just not going to be a good time anytime soon, so you just have to bite the bullet and do it. 
 

You hope the existing players and an upgraded pitching staff.

This is how they are going to build this team.

[turtlebowl]

I think the guy who goes is Mullins.  He has slipped 2 years in a row offensively and is getting older.  He is still a plus center fielder so hopefully you can get something valuable via trade because of that and reputation.  You could then play Cowser and Mckenna in center and probably get better offense with an obvious drop off in defense.  Hicks could also be kept if you prefer him for insurance over Mckenna even though I thought Mckenna had a pretty solid year overall.  That still allows the DH position to go between Kjerstad, Santander and Adley with the first 2 alternating in RF.  

In the infield I think Urias is gone.  Right now Westburg and him are too similar with Westburg having the upside.  In this scenario I could see them keeping Frazier for 1 more season because of his LH bat.  I want to see Ortiz at 2nd to start the season while Holliday gets another few weeks in the minors.  This gives you Westburg at 3rd, Gunner at SS, Ortiz at 2nd with Frazier in when they face a tough RHP.  That would also keep Mateo as more of a utility guy, pinch runner.  

Lastly if they could get a haul for Mountcastle I could see them making that move knowing that you have Santander who hasn't embarrassed himself there and O'Hearn who has been a godsend (even though struggling this last month).  The hope is by mid season Mayo needs to be up so he will need somewhere to play so he can go to first or 3rd depending on the need.   

Edited October 2, 2023 by turtlebowl