2024 Arb projections and decisions

[btdart20]

MLBTR has their projections for 2024 arbitrations out.  

MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Orioles (16)

• Anthony Santander (5.162): $12.7MM
• Danny Coulombe (5.008): $2.2MM
• John Means (5.007): $5.93MM
• Ryan O’Hearn (4.170): $3MM
• Cedric Mullins (4.078): $6.4MM
• Austin Hays (4.057): $6.1MM
• Dillon Tate (4.048): $1.5MM
• Jorge Mateo (4.000): $2.9MM
• Ryan Mountcastle (3.105): $4.2MM
• Cionel Perez (3.085): $1.3MM
• Cole Irvin (3.083): $1.8MM
• Keegan Akin (3.079): $800K
• Jacob Webb (3.046): $1.2MM
• Ramon Urias (3.025): $2MM
• Tyler Wells (2.132): $2.3MM
• Ryan McKenna (2.123): $740K

 

 

Are they close?  Who do you see higher/lower?  What decisions do you make if you're GM?  What does Elias do?

 

[Jim'sKid26]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

MLBTR has their projections for 2024 arbitrations out.  

MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Orioles (16)

• Anthony Santander (5.162): $12.7MM
• Danny Coulombe (5.008): $2.2MM
• John Means (5.007): $5.93MM
• Ryan O’Hearn (4.170): $3MM
• Cedric Mullins (4.078): $6.4MM
• Austin Hays (4.057): $6.1MM
• Dillon Tate (4.048): $1.5MM
• Jorge Mateo (4.000): $2.9MM
• Ryan Mountcastle (3.105): $4.2MM
• Cionel Perez (3.085): $1.3MM
• Cole Irvin (3.083): $1.8MM
• Keegan Akin (3.079): $800K
• Jacob Webb (3.046): $1.2MM
• Ramon Urias (3.025): $2MM
• Tyler Wells (2.132): $2.3MM
• Ryan McKenna (2.123): $740K

 

 

Are they close?  Who do you see higher/lower?  What decisions do you make if you're GM?  What does Elias do?

 

At that price I would tender contracts to:

Santander, Coulombe, Means, O'Hearn, Mullins, Hays, Irvin, Mountcastle, Perez, Urias, Wells and McKenna.

I'd look to trade Santander, Urias and Mountcastle.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Keep em all

[Sports Guy]

Mounty isn’t getting that much.

 

[Hallas]

Kind of hard for Mateo to make 4 million if he gets nontendered.

[SteveA]

McKenna projected $740K in arbitration?

That is the major league minimum next year (it was $720K this year, and set to rise $20K each year during this CBA).

So they really think if McKenna goes to arbitration and asks for $740,001, and the Orioles offer the bare major league minimum of $740,000, the arbitrator will side with the Orioles and not give him that extra buck?

[btdart20]

None of these numbers break the bank, so the question shifts more to roster/org management. 

A few pairings I’m interested in:

Mateo and Urias
O’Hearn and Mounty

Santander and Hays

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Keep em all

You aren’t keeping Mateo for that.

[clapdiddy]

I could see one or more of Hays, Mullins, and Santander being dealt.   Need to make room for Cowser, Hjerstad, and possibly Norby.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

None of these numbers break the bank, so the question shifts more to roster/org management. 

A few pairings I’m interested in:

Mateo and Urias
O’Hearn and Mounty

Santander and Hays

They all break JA’s bank.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

I could see one or more of Hays, Mullins, and Santander being dealt.   Need to make room for Cowser, Hjerstad, and possibly Norby.  

I would put O'Hearn there over Mullins. And I think it is important to keep Hays for his defense in LF until we have someone else who shows they can cover the ground out there.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mounty isn’t getting that much.

 

Agreed.  Mullins got $4.1 mm, Hays $3.2 mm in Arb 1.  I think Mountcastle will be close to Hays’ number from last year.  

I also think the number for Means is high.  Look at Alex Cobb when he was at Tampa. He got $4 mm in Arb 1, ended up needing TJ surgery and missed the year, got $4 mm again in Arb 2, pitched in 5 games at the end of the year and got a courtesy raise to $4.2 mm for Arb 3.   Means earned $2.95 mm in Arb 1, missed almost the whole year with TJ, got $2.975 mm in Arb 2 and pitched in 5 games at the end of the year.   So now his salary is going to double?  I don’t think so.  He did pitch a lot better in his 5 games (2.66 ERA) than Cobb did (8.59), but either way, it’s five games and his raise won’t be that big.  I’d say in the $4 mm neighborhood for 2024.   But, I wouldn’t mind if the O’s signed him to an extension.   

I haven’t thought too hard about the others, so I may come back later on those.  

 

[Sports Guy]

MLBTR gets so much credit for this stuff but anyone can do it and they can be really off. The Villar one from a few years ago was as absurd as I have seen.

People will pat them on the back for this but it’s like saying the bracketologist did so well with picking the teams for the ncaa tourney…when everyone knows at least 60 of the teams and usually it’s more than that.  

[SteveA]

9 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I could see one or more of Hays, Mullins, and Santander being dealt.   Need to make room for Cowser, Hjerstad, and possibly Norby.  

I think it is almost a lock that one of Hays/Mullins/Santander will not be on the team next year.   The numbers dictate it, although no matter which of the 3 guys goes, I will miss him and his contributions tot he team quite a bit.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

I think it is almost a lock that one of Hays/Mullins/Santander will not be on the team next year.   The numbers dictate it, although no matter which of the 3 guys goes, I will miss him and his contributions tot he team quite a bit.

Totally agree.  To me, these guys will always be Orioles...regardless if they stay here their whole careers or move on to another team.