Some potential moves for this offseason

[clapdiddy]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-have-lots-of-decisions-to-make-with-arbitration-players
 

Will Marlins be interested in Tony Taters again?

Good question.   I don't know if Kim Ng was the interested party, but she's not coming back to the Marlins.

I would move Santander, but it would have to be the right deal.   

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-have-lots-of-decisions-to-make-with-arbitration-players
 

Will Marlins be interested in Tony Taters again?

As I posted earlier in this thread, I think last winter's Teoscar Hernanez trade gives us an idea of Santander's likely trade value.  Hernandez returned reliever Erik Swanson and a throw-in.   Would you trade Santander for a Swanson-level reliever with 3 years of service remaining?   Who fits the bill?

[tntoriole]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:58 AM, Sports Guy said:

There are so many directions this team can go in this offseason. These are just a few ideas of the types of moves I would like to see:

1) Westburg for Woo

2) Cowser, Mountcastle, Norby, Kremer and Max Wagner for Robert, Jr and Christian Mena (his profile sounds like one the Os would like and could be a reliever very soon)  

This is a lot to give and I could see this trade backfiring but Robert has a team friendly 4 years left on his deal and he has big power and big upside. 

3)  Sign a starter.  This offseason, the starters that are interesting are Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Nola and ERod. You should be able to afford one of those guys. I think Snell is going to get too much. Nola would be my preference but I’m guessing he gets too much.  Any of the remaining guys have Enough warts that they could get 3 years or less and that’s the area the Os need to be in.

An under the radar name would be Maeda. He has some very nice stats. The issue with Maeda is that he has a real injury history and he’s tough to rely on. He’s a better version of Tyler Wells.

4) Sign Kimbrel. He will be coming off a 1/10 deal. If you can get him for 2 years or less, he gives you a vet back end of the pen presence. 
 

5) Trade Santander. One of the pieces I would be looking to add is a ML ready/close to ML ready (or already in the majors) BP piece that fits the traits of missing bats, good command and control, high strikeout type guy.  Should be able to get at least one other top 10 prospect as well.

6) Sign Henderson to a 7 year extension for 110-120M

7) Give Holliday an 8 year deal for around 100M.  Holliday makes the OD roster.

8. Mateo is traded or non tendered.

9) Mayo makes team out of ST

IF: Mayo/OHearn, Ortiz, Holliday, Gunnar, Urias

OF: Kjerstad, Mullins, Robert and Hays

C- Adley and McCann

DH- a rotation of guys with Kjerstad probably getting more at bats than anyone else.

SP: Bradish, GRod, Woo, Means, FA starter

BP: Kimbrel, Hall, Wells, Irvin, Coloumbe, Cano, Perez

That’s 24 players. One more in the pen…Competition between who you receive in trade and Tate.

Last player is likely to be an OFer. With Robert here, you don’t need someone who can play CF, so bringing back Hicks could work in this scenario.
 

Salary added from trades/signings

Robert- 12.5M

Kimbrel- 10-15M

FA starter- 12-20M

Salary subtracted from trades/non tenders:  Santander, Mateo, Mountcastle. That is about 18M of expected arb increases.

Payroll:

10 guys making league minimum…7.5

9 arb eligible guys- roughly 29M

3 “big” acquisitions: 35-48M

McCann- 4M

Last few spots are likely to be cheaper salaries. Just call those 3 spots a total of 4M (May be high but leave it at that).

Total payroll is in the area of 80-92M depending on the cost of the starter and Kimbrel.

 

If extensions occur like that.. GREAT!  Doubt it though.

Letting go of all current free agents is no brainer. 
 

Agree they may sign Kimbrel or maybe Jordan Hicks. 
 

Too much for the Robert trade though I like it imho. 
 

They may try different combinations of the Mountcastle , Urias, Mateo, Santander group with one or more of a Norby, Ortiz, Westburg group to see what it might bring re:pitching both ML and pitching prospects. 
 

I don’t think they will sign any of the starters you listed.. JA will see as too pricey .. Maybe Giolito or making a one year prove me deal to try to fix Severino. 
 

But I tend to nihilistic about Angelos and Os offseasons so I hope to be proven wrong. 

[owknows]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I posted earlier in this thread, I think last winter's Teoscar Hernanez trade gives us an idea of Santander's likely trade value.  Hernandez returned reliever Erik Swanson and a throw-in.   Would you trade Santander for a Swanson-level reliever with 3 years of service remaining?   Who fits the bill?

Yes. I would make that trade.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I posted earlier in this thread, I think last winter's Teoscar Hernanez trade gives us an idea of Santander's likely trade value.  Hernandez returned reliever Erik Swanson and a throw-in.   Would you trade Santander for a Swanson-level reliever with 3 years of service remaining?   Who fits the bill?

Swanson is really good, so I think that’s in the ballpark.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I posted earlier in this thread, I think last winter's Teoscar Hernanez trade gives us an idea of Santander's likely trade value.  Hernandez returned reliever Erik Swanson and a throw-in.   Would you trade Santander for a Swanson-level reliever with 3 years of service remaining?   Who fits the bill?

I would.  How about Jason Foley?  Hunter Harvey? 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I posted earlier in this thread, I think last winter's Teoscar Hernanez trade gives us an idea of Santander's likely trade value.  Hernandez returned reliever Erik Swanson and a throw-in.   Would you trade Santander for a Swanson-level reliever with 3 years of service remaining?   Who fits the bill?

Swanson doesn't move the needle for me.  I'd rather have Taters' 30 HR threat.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Swanson doesn't move the needle for me.  I'd rather have Taters' 30 HR threat.

But there is more to the move..if you trade him, you now open up other guys to get at bats.

So much of this is dependent on who they want up and when they want them up.

[btdart20]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But there is more to the move..if you trade him, you now open up other guys to get at bats.

So much of this is dependent on who they want up and when they want them up.

Yeah, I get that.  And agree the OF PAs need to start shifting toward Cowser/HK for the winnowing process.  I'm of the opinion that they'll only be trading one of Hays or Santander.  And I think Hays is more replaceable with the in-house options we have.  

 

I'm already booking Gunnar, Santander, and HK for 30 HRs each in 2024!   

[foxfield]

On 10/14/2023 at 11:28 AM, Frobby said:

I’d love to see them try some more complicated structure sort of like Julio Rodriguez where the years and dollars fluctuate a bit depending on performance but the player still has a lot of financial security.  

Agreed. This is what I hope is done. Strong base with financial incentives that make it very lucrative if he maxes out the levers. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:18 PM, DirtyBird said:

Bradfield can't hit

It's a little early to definitively state that.  He was just drafted this year.

[24fps]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:18 PM, DirtyBird said:

Bradfield can't hit

He doesn't hit for power, but then again he wasn't drafted to hit for power.  He was drafted to get on base and then run while providing genuine CF defense the rest of the game.  His OBP over three years at Vanderbilt was comfortably above .400 and over 77 PA at Delmarva it was .494.  Smile - it's a good deal.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, 24fps said:

He doesn't hit for power, but then again he wasn't drafted to hit for power.  He was drafted to get on base and then run while providing genuine CF defense the rest of the game.  His OBP over three years at Vanderbilt was comfortably above .400 and over 77 PA at Delmarva it was .494.  Smile - it's a good deal.

If he doesn’t show power, he will be exposed at the upper levels and he will be Billy Hamilton at best. 
 

He doesn’t have to hit a lot of homers but he needs to be a 35ish double, 10ish triples, 7-15 homer guy. In other words, I think he needs to be a 45+ extra base hit guy.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he doesn’t show power, he will be exposed at the upper levels and he will be Billy Hamilton at best. 
 

He doesn’t have to hit a lot of homers but he needs to be a 35ish double, 10ish triples, 7-15 homer guy. In other words, I think he needs to be a 45+ extra base hit guy.

Or, he could be Brett Butler.  Or Juan Pierre.  There’s plenty of room to be better than Billy Hamilton even if Bradfield has very little power.   But, his path is a lot easier if he develops a little pop.  

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Or, he could be Brett Butler.  Or Juan Pierre.  There’s plenty of room to be better than Billy Hamilton even if Bradfield has very little power.   But, his path is a lot easier if he develops a little pop.  

 

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Or, he could be Brett Butler.  Or Juan Pierre.  There’s plenty of room to be better than Billy Hamilton even if Bradfield has very little power.   But, his path is a lot easier if he develops a little pop.  

I’m pretty confident he’ll be that 20+ double, 10 triple, 10+ homer type.  He showed some power with the college bat.  I’m sure they’ll make a few tweaks and he seems like the kind of kid who can make the adjustments.   The question, similar to Cowser, is how much of that contact ability does he sacrifice to generate more power.   He showed zero power last year.   Similar to Joey Ortiz debut at rookie level Aberdeen years ago.   I bet a more intense lifting regimen is part of his first pro off-season.