FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern

[E-D-D-I-E]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

I really, really hope that the Orioles do better than those names. I'm not sure I would consider any of them an upgrade on what we have and I don't know that just adding depth is a real need with Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Wells, Hall, McDermott, Povich, etc. I might be able to be convinced that Wacha is an upgrade, but I don't want him as a Plan A, B or C. 

Those that are pinning for Nola or Snell are shooting too high (though with someone other than the Angelos family owning the team it shouldn't be shooting too high), but I do think the team could/should land someone like Gray or E-Rod. I know Gray is a Cy Young finalist, but his age does limit the number of years he gets and I don't see the Orioles going long enough for Nola. Gray is a reach, of course, but at least less so. 

Admittedly, I was disappointed with Gibson as the main guy last year. I'll be even more disappointed if we end up with someone in that ilk again as the headliner of our offseason. 

Calling Irvin and 2 rookies the equivilent of Cease and Giolito is quite a stretch, but I am hoping for bigger, just not holding my breath. Realistic.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I really, really hope that the Orioles do better than those names. I'm not sure I would consider any of them an upgrade on what we have and I don't know that just adding depth is a real need with Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Wells, Hall, McDermott, Povich, etc. I might be able to be convinced that Wacha is an upgrade, but I don't want him as a Plan A, B or C. 

Those that are pinning for Nola or Snell are shooting too high (though with someone other than the Angelos family owning the team it shouldn't be shooting too high), but I do think the team could/should land someone like Gray or E-Rod. I know Gray is a Cy Young finalist, but his age does limit the number of years he gets and I don't see the Orioles going long enough for Nola. Gray is a reach, of course, but at least less so. 

Admittedly, I was disappointed with Gibson as the main guy last year. I'll be even more disappointed if we end up with someone in that ilk again as the headliner of our offseason. 

What many seem to not realize, it is counter intuitive to what we are brought up to understand, is that Elias' plan is not to improve through spending big.   He improves through 1) player development and 2) analysis of players he can acquire cheap.  He looks to improve the skill of those he acquires.  Give them opportunity they might not have gotten elsewhere.  He and his team are quite good at it.

So the heavy lifting of improvement will happen by those already in the O's organization.  And those added are simply filling a gaps until player development fills those voids.

So why is Elias so good at development.   It's because he acts upon the principles that players in their twenties are the most productive.   A fact that many articles  talk about and few teams act on.    For Elias, as players age and become less productive they are to be replaced by players in their twenties.  

That is not what free agency is all about.  Most players that become free agents get contracts into their thirties and become less  productive.  Elias only uses those players on short term contracts to fill gaps.

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What many seem to not realize, it is counter intuitive to what we are brought to understand, is that Elias plan is not to improve through spending big.   He improves through 1) player development and 2) analysis of players he can acquire.  He looks to improve the skill of those he acquires.  Give them opportunity they might not have gotten elsewhere.  He and his team are quite good at it.

So the heavy lifting of improvement will happen by those already in the O's organization.  And those added are simply filling a gaps until player development fills those voids.

So why is Elias so good at development.   It's because he acts upon the principles that players in their twenties are the most productive.   A fact that many articles  talk about and few team act on.    For Elias as players age and become less productive they are to be replaced by players in their twenties.  

That is not what free agency is all about.  Most player that become free agents get contracts into their thirties and become less  productive.  Elias only uses those players on short term contracts to fill gaps.

 

That’s what he’s done so far.  I don’t think it can be assumed that he wouldn’t use free agency to add a key centerpiece now that the team is clearly a contender.  I’m not saying he will, but to me the fact that he hasn’t done so up to now is not necessarily a reliable predictor of what he’ll do in the current circumstances.  It’s a different scenario than the one he has been dealing with previously.  

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What many seem to not realize, it is counter intuitive to what we are brought to understand, is that Elias plan is not to improve through spending big.   He improves through 1) player development and 2) analysis of players he can acquire.  He looks to improve the skill of those he acquires.  Give them opportunity they might not have gotten elsewhere.  He and his team are quite good at it.

So the heavy lifting of improvement will happen by those already in the O's organization.  And those added are simply filling a gaps until player development fills those voids.

So why is Elias so good at development.   It's because he acts upon the principles that players in their twenties are the most productive.   A fact that many articles  talk about and few team act on.    For Elias as players age and become less productive they are to be replaced by players in their twenties.  

That is not what free agency is all about.  Most player that become free agents get contracts into their thirties and become less  productive.  Elias only uses those players on short term contracts to fill gaps.

When you're right, you're right. Not only is it not Elias' plan to improve through spending big, he's been tasked to not do that by ownership. Fortunately for us, Elias and team know how to actually improve a team without spending much. It's a shame he can't do his thing AND spend, but it is what it is. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by interloper

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

When you're right, you're right. Not only is it not Elias' plan to improve through spending big, he's been tasked to not do that by ownership. Fortunately for us, Elias and team know how to actually improve a team without spending much. It's a shame he can't do his thing AND spend, but it is what it is. 

It's not a shame.  It's by design.   He does not want to be tied to the long term contracts.  He wants the flexibility.  He has built a system highly efficient in analytics to identify young talent.  Analytics and development personnell to improve those players.   And international talent to boarden the funnel.

 

 

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Calling Irvin and 2 rookies the equivilent of Cease and Giolito is quite a stretch, but I am hoping for bigger, just not holding my breath. Realistic.

I'm not sure where I said that at all. I said I'd rather just use the in house group (which is also inclusive of Hall and Wells--as the alternative would be adding more bullpen and pushing them to the rotation) than the names brought up by the OP. My post wasn't quoting any others so it was in response to the OP and in relation to Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and the like. I do think Cease and Giolito fall in a class above that. I would prefer Gray or E-Rod over either (unless Cease comes WAY cheaper than I expect). I also said I could be talked into Wacha who I didn't want as Plan A, B, or C. I think the Cease/Giolito class would fall into the Plan B/C territory. 

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s what he’s done so far.  I don’t think it can be assumed that he wouldn’t use free agency to add a key centerpiece now that the team is clearly a contender.  I’m not saying he will, but to me the fact that he hasn’t done so up to now is not necessarily a reliable predictor of what he’ll do in the current circumstances.  It’s a different scenario than the one he has been dealing with previously.  

Is it?  You really think he is going to change his philosophy when that philosophy just produced 101 wins?    I think this off season he:

1) Acquires a starter and a reliever on short term contracts.

2) Trade Stowers, Norby and Urias for young minor league pitching.

3) Builds up AAA with cheap productive AAA players to support his prospects.

And to him that will be a successful off season because he trusts the development of his core players.

I guess we will see.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It's not a shame.  It's by design.   He does not want to be tied to the long term contracts.  He wants the flexibility.  He has built a system highly efficient in analytics to identify young talent.  Analytics and development personnell to improve those players.   And international talent to boarden the funnel.

 

 

Some of what you are saying is right..some of what you are saying is dead wrong.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some of what you are saying is right..some of what you are saying is dead wrong.

But we will not know which is which until you tell us.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Is it?  You really think he is going to change his philosophy when that philosophy just produced 101 wins?    I think this off season he:

1) Acquires a starter and a reliever on short term contracts.

2) Trade Stowers, Norby and Urias for young minor league pitching.

3) Builds up AAA with cheap productive AAA players to support his prospects.

And to him that will be a successful off season because he trusts the development of his core players.

I guess we will see.  

I think what I wrote was pretty clear that I am not saying he’ll change tactics, just that I don’t think it’s set in stone that he won’t.  Elias doesn’t strike me as an inflexible guy.  He’ll do whatever he thinks is right in the current circumstances.  And by the way, he’s directly said that we made multi-year offers to certain pitchers last offseason, so we know he’s not doctrinaire about not doing them.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

But we will not know which is which until you tell us.

If you have actually paid attention to how Houston operates, it’s pretty obvious where you are wrong.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think what I wrote was pretty clear that I am not saying he’ll change tactics, just that I don’t think it’s set in stone that he won’t.  Elias doesn’t strike me as an inflexible guy.  He’ll do whatever he thinks is right in the current circumstances.  And by the way, he’s directly said that we made multi-year offers to certain pitchers last offseason, so we know he’s not doctrinaire about not doing them.  

Yes he did say he had made multi year offer to pitchers.   But now he has two #1s, a #3 and a 4/5 who pitched 172 inning.   I think he might go two years on a starter this off season.  But I just don't see him spending big on a starter when he has a 1st round draft choice pitcher that is probably ready for 2025.

Plus if he gives 20m a year for a starter what does he tell Means when he wants to resign him?

Edited November 7, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you have actually paid attention to how Houston operates, it’s pretty obvious where you are wrong.

Houston is a huge market that can support a huge payroll.  Baltimore is not.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Houston is a huge market that can support a huge payroll.  Baltimore is not.

That’s true, but not really relevant.  Even teams like Tampa sign players to multi-year deals sometimes.  

[wildcard]

On 11/7/2023 at 4:29 PM, Frobby said:

That’s true, but not really relevant.  Even teams like Tampa sign players to multi-year deals sometimes.  

Yes they do.  They give a pitcher a 30m deal. Back load it with 25m in the last year and then probably trade him before they have to pay him the 25m.

Edited November 9, 2023 by wildcard