MLBTR - O's speculation

[btdart20]

2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions - MLB Trade Rumors

FAs with some type of speculation/fit with the O's:  Snell, JoMo, Gray, Giolito, Hicks, Maeda, Stephenson, Montas

I'm pretty confident we can cross Snell and JoMo off the list. 

Gray, Maeda, Hicks, and Stephenson all address needs currently.  Montas is health-dependent, but his hoppy 4S is a worthy flier for a #3/4 type.

Giolito is a question mark.  Giving up 41 HRs is a problem... (34 xHR in OPACY)  His velo dropped in 2022 (94 to 92.7) then ticked back up last year to 93.3.  Is the velo still in the tank, but the conditioning isn't?  FG has a -11.4 weighted runs allowed on his 4S.  His CSW% is still strong.  His O/Z swing/contact metrics look similar to prior years.  His pitch mix changed pretty significantly (4S from 47.7% to 41.8% with more CH and SL).  Barrel%, Pull%, HH%, HR/FB we all up.  GB% was down.  My guess is hitters are staying off the CH and SL and choosing to swing at the 4S more in better counts.  1st half he posted a 3.45 ERA (wOBA of .299), 2nd half a 7.13 (.393).  That's concerning and could be injury related.  But it could also be that he was shuttled around to a few teams "not wanted" and it got in his head.  .466 SLG vs. LHH and a .493 SLG vs. RHH.  Solid K-BB% vs. RHH so OPACY will likely play up for him.  

If he's healthy, I think he's fixable.  He threw a sinker through 2018, maybe a tweak there is the path forward?  Or maybe it's just a pitch mix thing?  His CB is pretty bad, maybe a Sweeper instead?

[Sports Guy]

 Maeda is definitely interesting to me but like I said before, he’s essentially a better version of Tyler Wells…he’s hurt a lot and not really dependable beyond 100ish innings.

He is a good pitcher and if he I knew we could get 140+ innings out of him, I would sign him in a heartbeat.

I still may and I prefer him over the dreck wildcard is promoting but he is a big risk.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think there’s a single contract on that list that I would pay. I also think they have a lot of contracts that are higher than what guys will go for.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think there’s a single contract on that list that I would pay. I also think they have a lot of contracts that are higher than what guys will go for.

Marcus Stroman 2/44.   No?  Really?

Eduardo Rodriguez 4/82

Neither signing costs a pick.   As far as FA pitchers go these two and Sonny Gray would be in the Orioles shopping aisle if they were somewhat serious about an upgrade over Gibson.

Edited November 7, 2023 by RZNJ

[OriolesMagic83]

Cody Bellinger, 12 years, $264 million.  This guy was non tendered by the Dodgers last year.  It seems like a sane contract would be around 5 years.  I'm sure their guess is better than mine.

[Frobby]

JoMo?   Does anyone actually use that?

[Rbiggs2525]

The contracts on that list had to be made by the player’s association. I would be highly surprised if 2 of the top 15 contracts are over the amount projected. I am only interested in Sonny Gray due to length of contract and probability. Gray can come off the books when Gunnar and Adley arbitration/long term contracts kick in. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

JoMo?   Does anyone actually use that?

I didn’t even realize who it was at first.  Took me a moment.

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

JoMo?   Does anyone actually use that?

It's the anti-FOMO. 

[HakunaSakata]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 Maeda is definitely interesting to me but like I said before, he’s essentially a better version of Tyler Wells…he’s hurt a lot and not really dependable beyond 100ish innings.

He is a good pitcher and if he I knew we could get 140+ innings out of him, I would sign him in a heartbeat.

I still may and I prefer him over the dreck wildcard is promoting but he is a big risk.

I was thinking the same (about Maeda). He had a stretch last season where he was absolutlely ace-like, and if you exclude the 10 run outing he had on Apr 26th (I think he was pitching hurt) his ERA on the season would have been under 4.00.  With his injury risk and age I'm thinking we probably won't have to go more than 2 years. Sign me up!

[Aristotelian]

Good list. I like Hicks and Stephenson. Grab one of those two.

If we can't sign an elite SP, trade for one using assets other than Holliday/Mayo/Basallo.

[Orioles0615]

No to Madea, he is what we have already. Go get a high end starter period. Either trade or FA

[sportsfan8703]

39 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

No to Madea, he is what we have already. Go get a high end starter period. Either trade or FA

Here’s the disconnect… you’ll get Cole Irvin, and you’ll like it. Haha.

At best, I see us offering Giolito and Montas one year deals and see if either one takes it. If not, then we sign Gibson. Gibson with Irvin sprinkled into some home starts. 

[OriolesMagic83]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here’s the disconnect… you’ll get Cole Irvin, and you’ll like it. Haha.

At best, I see us offering Giolito and Montas one year deals and see if either one takes it. If not, then we sign Gibson. Gibson with Irvin sprinkled into some home starts. 

I already know how the story goes.  O's are in talks with all the 2nd tier starters.  They all sign one by one.  Elias makes a statement about the market for starters being more expensive than he thought.  JA makes a statement about how pressed the finances of the O's are going to be after signing a top free agent or two and that ticket prices will have to rise.  O's predictably are scrambling to see who will accept a one year deal.

[Orioles0615]

20 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I already know how the story goes.  O's are in talks with all the 2nd tier starters.  They all sign one by one.  Elias makes a statement about the market for starters being more expensive than he thought.  JA makes a statement about how pressed the finances of the O's are going to be after signing a top free agent or two and that ticket prices will have to rise.  O's predictably are scrambling to see who will accept a one year deal.