Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Unscrupulous was the word.  lol

I think that has more negative connotation.

You’re right.   I’m thinking of changing my screen name to Unscrupulous.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

You’re right.   I’m thinking of changing my screen name to Unscrupulous.

Just make sure you capitalize the "O"  

[CaptainRedbeard]

Great, now I’m daydreaming about trading for both Miller and Woo and then trading Woo + for Cease. (Miller is my preference between the 2.)

The tough part about trading with the Mariners is they have a glut of infielders now, none that are very good (other than Crawford) but good enough that Westburg/Ortiz are probably not on the top of their wish list. They really need corner bats. 

What combination of prospects plus Santander and/or Hays gets both Miller & Woo?

I would think Westburg/Ortiz + Woo as two centerpieces enough to get Cease, with some other lower level prospects from our own system. 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Cease isn't going to be more valuable with a year and two months on his contract vs. the full two years he has now. 

CWS are stupid if they don't trade him before OD this year.

If he has a 2.20 ERA into July I could see his value going up despite months of control going down. Yes, bidders would be missing out on three more months but they are the least valuable three months of the season. The Reds got a great return for 1.3 years of Castillo and I don't see any reason to believe the return would have been different earlier. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Great, now I’m daydreaming about trading for both Miller and Woo and then trading Woo + for Cease. (Miller is my preference between the 2.)

The tough part about trading with the Mariners is they have a glut of infielders now, none that are very good (other than Crawford) but good enough that Westburg/Ortiz are probably not on the top of their wish list. They really need corner bats. 

What combination of prospects plus Santander and/or Hays gets both Miller & Woo?

I would think Westburg/Ortiz + Woo as two centerpieces enough to get Cease, with some other lower level prospects from our own system. 

I'd probably rather have Woo than Cease, so I'm not sure about this one. Woo is only 23 and not a free agent until 2030. Just had a nice rookie year, plenty of upside there. 

Cease may or may not be damaged goods. He's a lot bigger of a dice roll. 

[dystopia]

40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If he has a 2.20 ERA into July I could see his value going up despite months of control going down. Yes, bidders would be missing out on three more months but they are the least valuable three months of the season. The Reds got a great return for 1.3 years of Castillo and I don't see any reason to believe the return would have been different earlier. 

Okay yes but that’s not going to happen. 

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'd probably rather have Woo than Cease, so I'm not sure about this one. Woo is only 23 and not a free agent until 2030. Just had a nice rookie year, plenty of upside there. 

Cease may or may not be damaged goods. He's a lot bigger of a dice roll. 

May or may not be damaged goods?   There’s no guarantees but he’s been one of the most durable starters in baseball over the last 3 years.

[sportsfan8703]

44 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If he has a 2.20 ERA into July I could see his value going up despite months of control going down. Yes, bidders would be missing out on three more months but they are the least valuable three months of the season. The Reds got a great return for 1.3 years of Castillo and I don't see any reason to believe the return would have been different earlier. 

And at the end of July, Mayo could be our everyday 3B, and Basallo could be in AAA.  Probably not two guys you want to trade.  Not an example of hoarding depth.  We've traded actual depth before,

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto, Rom, and Showalter for Flaherty

The rest of our depth isn't good enough to headline a deal for Cease or Luzardo.  

A new GM in Chicago feels like he has to clearly win the Cease trade right now.  There isn't any pressure to deal him until the trade deadline this year.   The Marlins would have to be overwhelmed to trade a member of their rotation.  

A trade doesn't look good.  

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

May or may not be damaged goods?   There’s no guarantees but he’s been one of the most durable starters in baseball over the last 3 years.

Sorry - I didn't mean damaged as in confirmed injuries, I just meant there's something that caused him to have that bad year. Whether it's mechanical or mental or hiding an injury or whatever. He had a similar year to Kremer. He cannot be that guy if we trade for him. If he is, it will be a bad trade. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[dystopia]

I don’t think it’s absolutely critical that we sign another starter to be perfectly honest. We already have the Bradish/G-Rod/Means combo, plus Kremer and then plenty of depth for the 5th slot. There’s Wells, Irvin, Hall, and even McDermott. 
 

I’d be fine with getting Cease but we don’t need to overpay for him. 
 

I would rather focus on getting a quality bullpen arm. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

You’re right.   I’m thinking of changing my screen name to Unscrupulous.

I think Slim Shady would fit you better.

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

And at the end of July, Mayo could be our everyday 3B, and Basallo could be in AAA.  Probably not two guys you want to trade.  Not an example of hoarding depth.  We've traded actual depth before,

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto, Rom, and Showalter for Flaherty

The rest of our depth isn't good enough to headline a deal for Cease or Luzardo.  

A new GM in Chicago feels like he has to clearly win the Cease trade right now.  There isn't any pressure to deal him until the trade deadline this year.   The Marlins would have to be overwhelmed to trade a member of their rotation.  

A trade doesn't look good.  

Are you suggesting I disagree with this? I think this is a realistic summary of where both teams are currently. Elias has said our top three are off the table, Getz thinks he can do better if he holds out. I don't think either is wrong, although Getz is certainly taking a risk if his holdout extends to the regular season.

[OriolesMagic83]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

And at the end of July, Mayo could be our everyday 3B, and Basallo could be in AAA.  Probably not two guys you want to trade.  Not an example of hoarding depth.  We've traded actual depth before,

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto, Rom, and Showalter for Flaherty

The rest of our depth isn't good enough to headline a deal for Cease or Luzardo.  

A new GM in Chicago feels like he has to clearly win the Cease trade right now.  There isn't any pressure to deal him until the trade deadline this year.   The Marlins would have to be overwhelmed to trade a member of their rotation.  

A trade doesn't look good.  

Mayo is not going to be a major league 3B.  When he matures, he will be Adam Dunn sized.

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don’t think it’s absolutely critical that we sign another starter to be perfectly honest. We already have the Bradish/G-Rod/Means combo, plus Kremer and then plenty of depth for the 5th slot. There’s Wells, Irvin, Hall, and even McDermott. 
 

I’d be fine with getting Cease but we don’t need to overpay for him. 
 

I would rather focus on getting a quality bullpen arm. 

There may be something to this. Elias can play the "let's see where we are at the trade deadline" game as well. That would give us a chance to see if Means is healthy and give opportunities to some of the other guys. At the same time, other good pitchers may be coming available as teams fall out of contention. Then again, I though Elias was being patient to make a big move at the trade deadline last year and we ended up with Fuji. Maybe he is just a pathological asset hoarder. 

[Roll Tide]

57 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don’t think it’s absolutely critical that we sign another starter to be perfectly honest. We already have the Bradish/G-Rod/Means combo, plus Kremer and then plenty of depth for the 5th slot. There’s Wells, Irvin, Hall, and even McDermott. 
 

I’d be fine with getting Cease but we don’t need to overpay for him. 
 

I would rather focus on getting a quality bullpen arm. 

I think it’s silly to count on Means