Cease vs everyone else

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It depends on what else they do.

This isn’t a Cease or bust offseason.

But they need to add a legit arm that could be a playoff difference maker or else I think Elias has completely failed this offseason.

 

You’re correct, but it is Cease or nothing. We’ve only added Kimbrel. Played successful rule 5 defense. Extended none of our guys. Made no other trades. 

We could pivot to arms like Uwasawa and Brasier. Are we desperate enough to kick the tires on Chapman or Bauer?  Would Stroman take a 3 yr deal that is essentially a 1 year deal because of opt outs?  Would we even offer him 15 million for year 1?

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I said a playoff arm that COUlD be a difference maker.

A guy like Edward Cabrera without questions falls into that category. He isn’t right now but a lot can change, especially with our development, between now and October. He is a risk to rely on, no doubt..but it’s better than what we have and the upside is huge.

Cease is obviously more of a sure thing. I want both of them. I think that’s what is best for the team now and long term but I need at least one.

So like, two guys are realistic options for the O's and if we get neither Elias failed? Like 90% of the guys we thought were trade options are simply staying put on their teams. That's not Elias' fault. Neither is not being able to sign a top flight SP. 

And look, I agree we could use a pitcher of Cease's caliber. But you yourself see him going to the Yankees. So is Cabrera the only option? And is he even on the trade block? 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

So like, two guys are realistic options for the O's and if we get neither Elias failed? Like 90% of the guys we thought were trade options are simply staying put on their teams. That's not Elias' fault. Neither is not being able to sign a top flight SP. 

And look, I agree we could use a pitcher of Cease's caliber. But you yourself see him going to the Yankees. So is Cabrera the only option? And is he even on the trade block? 

I mean Bieber is possible..Marlins have some other arms that are possible as well. Burnes maybe.

But yes, the options are limited and yes it’s Elias’ fault if he doesn’t get one. He knows he can’t sign a difference maker. He has clearly and publicly stated that he wants a difference making starter. So if he knows it and knows he can’t spend the money to get one, it is absolutely on him to get a deal done for one of the few arms available.

It’s not his fault he doesn’t get a certain player because the ask could be absurd or something like that but to not get someone from a larger group, that’s on him.

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Caring what the fans think instead of trying to improve your organization for long term success is a bad recipe.

Agreed.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I mean Bieber is possible..Marlins have some other arms that are possible as well. Burnes maybe.

But yes, the options are limited and yes it’s Elias’ fault if he doesn’t get one. He knows he can’t sign a difference maker. He has clearly and publicly stated that he wants a difference making starter. So if he knows it and knows he can’t spend the money to get one, it is absolutely on him to get a deal done for one of the few arms available.

It’s not his fault he doesn’t get a certain player because the ask could be absurd or something like that but to not get someone from a larger group, that’s on him.

Eh I dunno. I understand but I disagree. It takes two to tango and the White Sox are a sh_tty dance partner. Just not sure any of these ptichers are actually going to get traded. The difference maker pitchers that have been traded so far - Glasnow and Sale - are guys from our division that wouldn't get traded here anyway. Robbie Ray is a salary dump so didn't make sense for us. 

So... I just don't know about this trade market. Seems like it's kind of a bust for everyone, not just the O's. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

So like, two guys are realistic options for the O's and if we get neither Elias failed? Like 90% of the guys we thought were trade options are simply staying put on their teams. That's not Elias' fault. Neither is not being able to sign a top flight SP. 

And look, I agree we could use a pitcher of Cease's caliber. But you yourself see him going to the Yankees. So is Cabrera the only option? And is he even on the trade block? 

If Elias doesn’t get a #3 or better starter then he failed to do so.   But he might have good reasons for not having done so.  He can clearly outbid anyone for Cease or even Luzardo if he wanted to.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Elias doesn’t get a #3 or better starter then he failed to do so.   But he might have good reasons for not having done so.  He can clearly outbid anyone for Cease or even Luzardo if he wanted to.

I think his best shot at a #3 is a 1-year deal for Ryu or something.

Miami has already confirmed that Luzardo is staying put, so we have to stop mentioning him. 

Cease I think stays put also, and if he does, that means the price was exorbitant. 

Again - just not seeing any real options on the trade market. Or the free agent market. It is what it is. 

Edited January 9 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

How many SP FA deals have been “overpays” in terms of what everyone thought the SP would get, or was surprised at how much FA SP cost, or went over the MLBTR projections?

Probably 80-90%. So that’s in terms of dollars. So why wouldn’t the same be true for prospects?

It can’t be “too expensive” or an “overpay” if this is what has happened the last two offseasons when we’ve been looking to buy. Same as the deadline. The market is what it is. 

[NCRaven]

I’ve come to hate this thread.

[sportsfan8703]

You always have to “overpay” for pitching. Even starting on draft day. Why do you think Elias chose to go all bats his first 3 drafts?

[interloper]

16 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I’ve come to hate this thread.

I logged on this morning at like 8am and people are already posting in this thread lol. The trade market is dead and teams are simply not trading their top flight pitchers. Everyone thinks they have a shot or if not they just think they can plunder the Orioles system. It's not gonna happen. 

This is why the pitchers that have been traded so far come with baggage. Either they have a bad contract (Ray) or injury history (Sale, Glasnow). Teams are resorting to these options because they are cheap to acquire prospect-wise (or in some cases, only involve ML players). That's because the SP FA market is insane, and the trade market was over-hyped from the start. None of these guys are going anywhere. And none of that is Elias' fault. 

Edited January 9 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

I think everyone here needs to 100% chill when it comes to "Well, Elias said..."

What Elias says doesn't mean anything.  It means absolutely nothing.  

[sportsfan8703]

We didn’t overpay for Gallardo, Ubaldo, and Cobb. How did those deals turn out?

[Pat Kelly]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It depends on what else they do.

This isn’t a Cease or bust offseason.

But they need to add a legit arm that could be a playoff difference maker or else I think Elias has completely failed this offseason.

 

Agree with this.  Elias does need to determine how to acquire the quality SP arm that is needed.  One of the biggest mistakes you can make (applies to any business) is failure to invest in success and growth.   It’s fine to cut costs and limit big swings if the business/product is years away strip things down and start over.  This is not where the Os are.  Sometimes you need to “overpay” if market demands that - Elias has to prove he can do more than acquire players cheaply, with limited risk.  This is the job of the GM - he has done 75-80% exceptionally well arguably better than any other GM.  But this is about winning championships now - hopefully he gets it. 

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I’ve come to hate this thread.

It’s the de facto offseason thread. “Cease vs Everyone Else”. We don’t need position players. So the whole offseason is getting a SP and kicking Wells to the pen, or having Wells be a SP and possibly signing a cheap reliever(Brasier).