FA tracker thread

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Stephen Strasburg got $245,000,000 and produced -.5 bWAR.

Chris Davis got $161,000,000 and produced -5.9 bWAR. 

I'm not sure how to do the math on this one. Since it's negative, do you multiple the WAR by the contract? If so, Davis was actually worse per WAR. But I don't know.

We’re getting a bit off the Aaron Nola track here.  However, Davis’ contact began in 2016, when he was +3.1 rWAR.  You left that year out. He was “only” -2.7 rWAR during the life of his contract.  In my opinion, the Strasburg contract turned considerably worse.

Back to Nola, he’s got an excellent track record when it comes to durability.  He’s made 32+ starts in his last five full seasons.  

[interloper]

Once again I will advocate for the approach of not spending your offseason watching big name guys getting crossed off and being sad/mad about it. 

The limit I estimate the O's will be at for SP is 2/$24. Basically, if we can't get a guy for $12 AAV, it ain't happening. And that's where my expectations are. Likewise for big name relievers like Hicks, who someone will sign to a 4 or 5 year deal, I have no doubt. We aren't doing that. 

And you can be mad about that because yes that sucks. But just don't be mad about it for the next 4 months, because that's dumb.

[LookinUp]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We’re getting a bit off the Aaron Nola track here.  However, Davis’ contact began in 2016, when he was +3.1 rWAR.  You left that year out. He was “only” -2.7 rWAR during the life of his contract.  In my opinion, the Strasburg contract turned considerably worse.

Back to Nola, he’s got an excellent track record when it comes to durability.  He’s made 32+ starts in his last five full seasons.  

Yes. I thought it was December 2016, not January. My mistake.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Moose Milligan]

I don't think Lance Lynn was ever bandied about on here as someone we should target.  But that's one less one year deal out there for the inevitable Kyle Gibson replacement.

[ChuckS]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think Lance Lynn was ever bandied about on here as someone we should target.  But that's one less one year deal out there for the inevitable Kyle Gibson replacement.

If an aging, stopgap fifth starter coming off of a season in which he had a 5.73 ERA can get 10 million, you might as well pay 20 mil/year for an actual difference maker.  

Now maybe Lynn's historical performance (he's been a better pitcher than Gibson) is factored in here, but I could still see Gibson could getting 12 or 13 on a one year deal. 

[dystopia]

I dont know why Lynn keeps getting treated like a good pitcher. I didn’t understand why the Dodgers traded for him at the deadline either. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I dont know why Lynn keeps getting treated like a good pitcher. 

Yeah, I don’t know why a guy who’s been worth nearly 30 rWAR in his career, with an ERA+ of 112 and a career W-L of 136-95 would be treated like a “good pitcher.”  

OK, so he had a bad year, after several consecutive very good ones.  The guy is making Gibson/Lyle money.  I’d hardly call that extravagant for a pitcher with his track record.  
 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I don’t know why a guy who’s been worth nearly 30 rWAR in his career, with an ERA+ of 112 and a career W-L of 136-95 would be treated like a “good pitcher.”  

OK, so he had a bad year, after several consecutive very good ones.  The guy is making Gibson/Lyle money.  I’d hardly call that extravagant for a pitcher with his track record.  
 

There’s also the fact that he’s now over 35 to consider. You’re better than this. 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

OK, so he had a bad year, after several consecutive very good ones.  The guy is making Gibson/Lyle money.  I’d hardly call that extravagant for a pitcher with his track record.  
 

He's had a good career, even great.  But at that age you have to wonder if he's reached the end of the line, or approaching it quickly.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s also the fact that he’s now over 35 to consider. You’re better than this. 

Lots of starting pitchers perform well after the age of 35.

Some of his peripherals are still very good.  The HR rate skyrocketed and he had an unlikely HR/FB%. My guess is that they can get Gibson like production with upside to be better than that. 

On a team that needs a complete overhaul of their rotation, he makes sense to put at the back of the rotation. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s also the fact that he’s now over 35 to consider. You’re better than this. 

I hate when people say that.  

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of starting pitchers perform well after the age of 35.

Some of his peripherals are still very good.  The HR rate skyrocketed and he had an unlikely HR/FB%. My guess is that they can get Gibson like production with upside to be better than that. 

On a team that needs a complete overhaul of their rotation, he makes sense to put at the back of the rotation. 

The Cardinals lineup really started to hit at the end of last year.  Their problem was definitely pitching.  Heck, we probably helped them improve late in the year by taking Flaherty off their hands.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's had a good career, even great.  But at that age you have to wonder if he's reached the end of the line, or approaching it quickly.

Absolutely.  But he’s not being paid a ton, either.

As an aside, I was just looking at Wade Miley, who like Lynn, will be 37 years old this year.  Lynn has a significantly better career track record, but Miley was vastly better in 2023.  Whenever I look at Miley, I wonder why he sucked so badly when he was with the Orioles.   That year and a half of 75 ERA+ stands out like a sore thumb in his career.   If we’re going to end up signing a guy for one year, the lefty Miley wouldn’t be the worst choice.