FA tracker thread

[Just Regular]

Lance Lynn getting 1/10 while Reynaldo Lopez gets 3/30 is another bit of "contract comfort food" for Tyler Wells and DL Hall if they are asked to become full-time relievers.

Reynaldo wasn't in FG's top 50, but a $30mm guarantee is about what Ben Clemens and the crowdsourcers were thinking would be a Top 20-ish pull in this year's class.     Early reports ATL may let Reynaldo try starting but I'd guess player flattery some of that.      

I've seen some guesses trade market will be vibrant, especially in position players, due to the cliff after Ohtani/Bellinger/Chapman.    

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Lance Lynn getting 1/10 while Reynaldo Lopez gets 3/30 is another bit of "contract comfort food" for Tyler Wells and DL Hall if they are asked to become full-time relievers.

Reynaldo wasn't in FG's top 50, but a $30mm guarantee is about what Ben Clemens and the crowdsourcers were thinking would be a Top 20-ish pull in this year's class.     Early reports ATL may let Reynaldo try starting but I'd guess player flattery some of that.      

I've seen some guesses trade market will be vibrant, especially in position players, due to the cliff after Ohtani/Bellinger/Chapman.    

ATL started aggressive this off-season.  I have to think they're done shopping in the RP aisle.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of starting pitchers perform well after the age of 35.

Some of his peripherals are still very good.  The HR rate skyrocketed and he had an unlikely HR/FB%. My guess is that they can get Gibson like production with upside to be better than that. 

On a team that needs a complete overhaul of their rotation, he makes sense to put at the back of the rotation. 

His 5.50 FIP does not suggest a resurgence. He wasn’t pitching in bandboxes either. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, dystopia said:

His 5.50 FIP does not suggest a resurgence. He wasn’t pitching in bandboxes either. 

Oh now FIP matters?  Lol

That’s driven a lot by a crazy high HR rate. He could be done but he has some very good numbers that suggest he’s not.

 

[dystopia]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh now FIP matters?  Lol

That’s driven a lot by a crazy high HR rate. He could be done but he has some very good numbers that suggest he’s not.

 

I said FIP is useful as a predictive stat. Go back and look for yourself. That’s what I said. 

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh now FIP matters?  Lol

That’s driven a lot by a crazy high HR rate. He could be done but he has some very good numbers that suggest he’s not.

 

There’s no good way of sugar coating leading the majors in HR allowed. Even if he “got unlucky”, he’s still, what, 2nd? 3rd? No justification for giving this guy 10 mil. 
 

I’d love to hear what “very good numbers” you’re referring to. High WHIP, walk rate was up, GB% down. 

[RZNJ]

One thing I noticed about Lance Lynn last year.  He’s always been a big guy.  Last year he was FAT.   Maybe he gets in a little better shape this year.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s no good way of sugar coating leading the majors in HR allowed. Even if he “got unlucky”, he’s still, what, 2nd? 3rd? No justification for giving this guy 10 mil.

Interesting.  His career HR/FB% is 8.2.  Last year it was 15.0.   Major league average is 8.8.   Could have been a lot of flukiness in there.  Or, he may have just hit a wall.

I don’t agree that there’s no justification for giving him $10 mm.  It’s a calculated risk that he’ll bounce back to a significant degree.   A typical Lynn season is worth a LOT more than $10 mm.   Last year he was worth a lot less.  So we’ll see how he does in 2024, but it’s not a huge amount of money to pay a guy with his track record.  

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s no good way of sugar coating leading the majors in HR allowed. Even if he “got unlucky”, he’s still, what, 2nd? 3rd? No justification for giving this guy 10 mil. 
 

I’d love to hear what “very good numbers” you’re referring to. High WHIP, walk rate was up, GB% down. 

K rate over 9..his bb rate wasn’t bad. It was higher than normal but not bad. His K/BB ratio was almost 3:1.  He threw 183.2 innings.  His xFIP is 4.50.

He is still missing bats at a high rate. His exit velo is better than league average.  

There is enough there to work with.  10M for a year is what guys like him get.  
 

He’s not really any different than Gibson or Lyle’s was when the Os gave them a similar deal.

[btdart20]

Signing Lynn for 1/$10m is a questionable opening gambit for STL.  At least, I'd be disappointed if I were a Card fan.  Feels more like a Throwback Thursday nostalgia signing than a real attempt to improve for STL.  Really feels like the type of guy you wait for the market to wash out with a few other long shots.  And maybe that's who they think Lynn is, but STL just wants to get that plus the feel-good nostalgia.  $8m for the "talent" and $2m for the nostalgia.

BB% should regress in a good way, but I'm not sure that's a good thing either because the Z and O zone swing/chase rates aren't out of whack either.  I'm afraid that could just lead to more loud contact.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

It's interesting how slow MLB free agency is compared to other sports like the NFL and NBA. Once that window opens, the signings just start and go very quicly. Not so much in MLB. 

[dystopia]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

K rate over 9..his bb rate wasn’t bad. It was higher than normal but not bad. His K/BB ratio was almost 3:1.  He threw 183.2 innings.  His xFIP is 4.50.

He is still missing bats at a high rate. His exit velo is better than league average.  

There is enough there to work with.  10M for a year is what guys like him get.  
 

He’s not really any different than Gibson or Lyle’s was when the Os gave them a similar deal.

Except his age. Wainwright was still pretty good until suddenly he wasn’t. When pitchers this age hit a wall they usually don’t recover. 
 

He had a better K rate with Chicago last year than LAD but his ERA was much better with the Dodgers. SSS of course, but the point is it doesn’t suggest how he’s going to perform next year. 
 

But hey, not my team, not money. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, dystopia said:

Except his age. Wainwright was still pretty good until suddenly he wasn’t. When pitchers this age hit a wall they usually don’t recover. 
 

He had a better K rate with Chicago last year than LAD but his ERA was much better with the Dodgers. SSS of course, but the point is it doesn’t suggest how he’s going to perform next year. 
 

But hey, not my team, not money. 

But again, there is plenty in his profile that suggests he hasn’t hit a wall. He had a bad year but that doesn’t mean he hit a wall.

His contract is appropriate for him.

[Frobby]

Braves pick up Reynaldo Lopez for 3/$26 mm, with an 2027 option at $8 mm with a $4 mm option.  So, $30 mm guaranteed.   

[Rbiggs2525]

3 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

It's interesting how slow MLB free agency is compared to other sports like the NFL and NBA. Once that window opens, the signings just start and go very quicly. Not so much in MLB. 

I believe there is collusion by the owners. How players like Ohtani and Judge are not signed when free agency begins? Those players bring a return on investment in terms of fans, jersey sales, etc. The Orioles will wait it out per usual.