Sonny Gray to St Louis

[Aristotelian]

I wonder if we will get any inside info whether the O's made a serious bid.

[wildcard]

MLBTR said 4/90 or 22.5/yr

Ben Clemens of Fangraphs said 3/78 or 26/yr.  That was pretty close.

[24fps]

Full retail price with a surcharge (draft pick).  I'm not going to get all wound up about the O's missing out on this particular deal, but it sure must be nice to be a team where ownership responds immediately to fix an unexpectedly dreadful season.

[Just Regular]

Looks like Gray perhaps leaned on AAV more than years, which would dovetail with whispers he might not have that bug to pitch until Wainwright type ages.

I think Giolito enters Best 5 available now, as Snell, Stroman, Montgomery and Eduardo gain a view of another data point.

[TommyPickles]

3 years, $75 million.

The first guy to get less than MLBTradeRumors predicted this year.

This is a deal I would have liked to see the O's make, but oh well.

 

I'd like to see them target Shoto Imanaga now.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I'd like to see them target Shoto Imanaga now.

I think we'd all like that, but there's been no indication that the Orioles will engage in posting fees since the last time PA said they wouldn't. So, it's overwhelmingly likely they will not engage in posting fees. Can you see John Angelos paying an additional fee on top of a contract? Ain't no way. That would hurt the (false) narrative that we're a small market team and things like posting fees are an unfair advantage to big market teams.

Edited November 27, 2023 by interloper

[wildcard]

75M is more of a commitment than the O's made to their whole team last year.   I am not expecting they will sign any contracts like that this off season.

[Rbiggs2525]

3@75 was a perfect deal. Would have come off the books when Adley and Gunnar start escalating in arbitration or extension. 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

75M is more of a commitment than the O's made to their whole team last year.   I am not expecting they will sign any contracts like that this off season.

Exactly. I'll say it again: 2/$24. 

That happens to be exactly what Maeda got, and that's the type of guy I think we'll end up with. Wacha got 1/$7.5 last year and pitched well with a low ERA and low WHIP. Only 130 IP and hasn't made more than 24 starts since 2017, but that's kind of why he's affordable. I think a team like the O's could grab him on something similar to 2/$24. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if we will get any inside info whether the O's made a serious bid.

No. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think we'd all like that, but there's been no indication that the Orioles will engage in posting fees since the last time PA said they wouldn't. So, it's overwhelmingly likely they will not engage in posting fees. Can you see John Angelos paying an additional fee on top of a contract? Ain't no way. That would hurt the (false) narrative that we're a small market team and things like posting fees are an unfair advantage to big market teams.

I've never understood why the posting fee per se should be a dealbreaker. Even for a cheapskate owner, all that should matter is the total cost. Kind of like "50% OFF SALE" doesn't really mean anything if the original price was marked up double. The posting cost may be an "extra fee" but it affects the overall market price. If you thought Japanese players were systematically overpaid as a result that would be one thing, but I don't think the evidence bears that out, even considering the posting fees. 

Of course, I agree, we should expect more of the same until proven otherwise, but it makes zero sense. Maybe Elias could talk them out of such a stupid position. He did get them to invest in an international system. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think we'd all like that, but there's been no indication that the Orioles will engage in posting fees since the last time PA said they wouldn't. So, it's overwhelmingly likely they will not engage in posting fees. 

The whole posting system has changed dramatically since Angelos made that remark.  It used to be like an auction, now it’s more like a tax.   It’s much more feasible for the Orioles to participate in the current system.   You just adjust what you’re willing to pay downward to account for the tax.  It’s the same calculus for any team.  I’m not saying the O’s will bid on any of these players, but the posting fee shouldn’t stop them, it should just affect what they’re willing to pay the player.  

[sportsfan8703]

54 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Bummer. Really didn't expect STL to be the highest bidder after the moves they have already made. They must really hate their pitching prospects. 

Their lineup is pretty darn good. We saw that when they came here late in the season. They just had terrible SP and bullpen. Given their factors… already locked into big deals, weak division, they’re choosing to spend their way out versus doing a rebuild. Makes sense for them. 

Notice how all these SP they are signing are innings eaters. That’ll lessen the load on their bullpen.

Realistically, we’re not getting any big name FA. And why would we?  We just need a crafty trade for a guy like Jose Quintana. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if we will get any inside info whether the O's made a serious bid.

That would be a NO.

[Since1984]

Waiting for SI to report Seth Lugo speculation