Closer carousel

[HakunaSakata]

48 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't think they'll do this, but I would prefer to see them sign someone like E-Rod for the rotation and then trade for a reliever like a Williams or Bednar. That would give you a lockdown closer as well as insurance in the off-chance Bautista doesn't recover as well as we expect/hope. And if he does, just imagine the backend of the 2025 bullpen. 

Both of those guys would be VERY expensive. 

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'd say that a little less than 1/2 the teams in MLB use some form of a closer committee approach throughout the season. All aren't as committed to it as the Rays (i.e., they might ride the hot hand for a few weeks), but the set it and forget type closers are few and far between and seem like they're a dying breed and/or a luxury not a necessity. 

Huh??????????????????????????????

Tampa had Pete Fairbanks as their closer for most of the season last year.   He had 25 saves.

Jason Adam had 12 saves, and 11 of them were between May 2 and June 14.   Fairbanks was on the IL for the first two weeks of May and again for the first two weeks of June.

NO ONE else had more than ONE save for Tampa.

So maybe that two weeks in late May between Fairbanks' two DL stints, Tampa shared duties between Fairbanks and Adam.   But otherwise, they had a designated closer ALL SEASON LONG... Fairbanks when he was healthy, Adam when Fairbanks was on the IL.

Just like nearly every other team does.    I have no idea where you are getting "little less than 1/2" MLB teams use a committee approach throughout the season.   Practically no one does it for any extended period of time at all.   Only when there is an injury to their main closer or they are in transition and settling on a new closer.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Huh??????????????????????????????

Tampa had Pete Fairbanks as their closer for most of the season last year.   He had 25 saves.

Jason Adam had 12 saves, and 11 of them were between May 2 and June 14.   Fairbanks was on the IL for the first two weeks of May and again for the first two weeks of June.

NO ONE else had more than ONE save for Tampa.

So maybe that two weeks in late May between Fairbanks' two DL stints, Tampa shared duties between Fairbanks and Adam.   But otherwise, they had a designated closer ALL SEASON LONG... Fairbanks when he was healthy, Adam when Fairbanks was on the IL.

Just like nearly every other team does.    I have no idea where you are getting "little less than 1/2" MLB teams use a committee approach throughout the season.   Practically no one does it for any extended period of time at all.   Only when there is an injury to their main closer or they are in transition and settling on a new closer.

You realize that a committee can technically be two people right? Again, my main point was that there aren't nearly as many set it and forget it 9th inning guys as there used to be. Just off the top of my head the following 14 teams either had closer shake ups throughout the year and/ or played match-ups at some point in the 9th inning. 

A's
Cardinals 
Cubs
Diamondbacks 
Dodgers
Mariners 
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Phillies 
Rangers
Rockies
Tigers
Yankees

[TommyPickles]

Chapman seems like a scumbag. Fired his gun off eight times inside a house party after an altercation with his girlfriend. One bullet flew through a neighbor's window. Then he punched out a car window. She accused him of also choking her during the incident (he said he just poked her and she fell over). Was suspended for 30 days under MLB's Domestic Violence rules.

I don't want him or Trevor Bauer on the team, personally.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Huh??????????????????????????????

That's twenty-five question marks.

[Moose Milligan]

I doubt that Chapman is on the radar.  At this point in his career, I'm not sure if I'd want him...a lot of it would just depend on what else we did to address the bullpen.  Looking at offseason moves individually is a bit myopic, you have to look at the whole picture. 

If Chapman is the only bullpen piece we pick up, I'm probably not too happy about that.  If he's part of a group of 3+ guys that all bring something to the table and the bullpen looks like an overall upgraded unit.

He's not nearly what he used to be, he's not as invincible as he was...I'd hesitate to call him a weapon.  But compared to the Givens pickup last year which turned out to be a massive flop, I think he'd be alright.  Not great, not terrible, just alright.  Probably a net positive but not a huge difference maker by himself. 

[wildcard]

Next year's closer: DL Hall

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Next year's closer: DL Hall

I kind of agree? I think there's a decent chance this ends up being the case. 

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You realize that a committee can technically be two people right? Again, my main point was that there aren't nearly as many set it and forget it 9th inning guys as there used to be. Just off the top of my head the following 14 teams either had closer shake ups throughout the year and/ or played match-ups at some point in the 9th inning. 

A's
Cardinals 
Cubs
Diamondbacks 
Dodgers
Mariners 
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Phillies 
Rangers
Rockies
Tigers
Yankees

A closer shakeup isn't what I am talking about.   Of course that happens.   But I still think vast majority of teams have one guy who gets all the 9th inning save situations when he is available to pitch, UNTIL he loses his job to someone else.   And then it's that guy.   And yes, there can be a transitional period where they are trying to figure it out, maybe a week or two.  Due to injury or the primary closer struggling and possibly losing his job.

But I don't think there is a single team in baseball that has a true committee situation for an entire season, or even a large part of a season, where on any given night there is more than one guy who might close if everyone is rested and available, and the choice is made by matchups or other factors.  I would love to see a team try it, but for whatever reason no one ever really does.

• Oakland had Trevor May with 21 saves, two guys with 2 saves each, and 4 guys with one save each.   I'm not going to go through the list to see which of those other 8 saves came on days when May wasn't rested, or which of them were oddball saves that aren't really part of the closer role (i.e. a guy goes 3 innings with a 12 run lead and is given a save).   But I'll bet if I did that work it would eliminate at least 4 of those 8 non-May saves.   So I don't think Oakland did any kind of closer by committee.
• For Texas, Will Smith had 22 saves.  All of them before mid August.  He didn't have a save or a blown save or enter a 3-run-or-less game in the 9th after that date, so it looks like he was the man until mid August, and then they demoted him.   Jose LeClerc had 4 saves, 3 of which were after mid August.  Aroldis Chapman had 4 saves for Texas, also all after mid August.   So I'll grant you that point, Texas actually did do a true 2-man committee with 9th inning save opportunities for a month and a half at the end of the season.    No one else on the team had a save, so for 4.5 months it was a straight one man closer show, and for a month and a half they actually were one of the rare teams  that actually went with a committee for a part of a season.

I'm not going to go through the other teams you list, if you are a US taxpayer you probably want me to be writing software on your dime this afternoon more than researching closers.   But I'll stand by my statement that teams almost universally have a closer who gets the 9th inning save situations if he is available to pitch.   And that if he gets hurt they usually go with another guy and anoint him the man.   And that there are occasional transition periods where a guy is losing his job or people are trying out for the job, but they are usually short and at the end of that period someone gets anointed The Man and he gets the opportunities.

The notion of having a true committee all year for 9th inning save opportunities sounds good, and I would love to see someone do it, but for whatever reasons (tradition?   afraid to try something new?  guys doing better when they  know their roles?), it simply doesn't happen for extended periods of time, and certainly not for a full season.

So whenever someone s uggest on a message board that the Orioles, or any team, should get multiple guys and mix and match based on the situation, leverage, LH/RH, etc... I say yeah, it sounds great, I think they should too.   But for whatever reason, it just plain doesn't happen.   You tried to claim Tampa does it and I proved they didn't.   I took your first team you listed as doing it, Oakland, and proved they didn't.   I looked at the Rangers and saw they actually did it with two guys for about 6 weeks.   But doing it as a season long strategy?   Just doesn't happen.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Next year's closer: DL Hall

I think Hall gets a chance to male the rotation first, but ultimately I think he settles  into becoming a high leverage reliever. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

 But I'll stand by my statement that teams almost universally have a closer who gets the 9th inning save situations if he is available to pitch.   And that if he gets hurt they usually go with another guy and anoint him the man.   And that there are occasional transition periods where a guy is losing his job or people are trying out for the job, but they are usually short and at the end of that period someone gets anointed The Man and he gets the opportunities.

It's much more than an "occasional transition". Closers lose their jobs all the time in this era. If you skim through the list of saves leaders last season there are about 13 that I trust, and I'm being generous including Iglesias and Doval who both had some serious rough patches. Maybe the 17 other teams would have been better off taking a less conventional approach than trying to squeeze a round peg in a square hole. 

Clase
Doval
Bednar
Diaz
Williams
Romano
Sewald
Baustista
Iglesias
Hader
Duran
Fairbanks
Bednar

[CP0861]

What's Hunter Harvey's trade value right now?!

 

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's much more than an "occasional transition". Closers lose their jobs all the time in this era. If you skim through the list of saves leaders last season there are about 13 that I trust, and I'm being generous including Iglesias and Doval who both had some serious rough patches. Maybe the 17 other teams would have been better off taking a less conventional approach than trying to squeeze a round peg in a square hole. 

Clase
Doval
Bednar
Diaz
Williams
Romano
Sewald
Baustista
Iglesias
Hader
Duran
Fairbanks
Bednar

I never said closers don't lose their jobs.   They do, and someone else gets the job.  Happens all the time.

I agree with you that teams SHOULD try to do things differently and do a real closer by committee.   Many people have been saying that for years and it certainly makes sense.    I manage my Strat-o-matic team that way.

But the fact is, no one does it.  Not Tampa.   Not anyone.   Just about every major league manager has a go-to guy that he brings in for 9th inning save opportunities at any given point in the season.   If that guy loses his job, the manager then has a different go-to guy that he brings in.   Until THAT guy gets hurt or ineffective and loses his job.    The concept of having a bullpen with a variety of arms and using the one that is most appropriate to the leverage, or the situation, or the opponent, in the 9th inning sounds great.   And people talk about it all the time.   Even managers and GMs give it lip service.  But no major league team ever actually employs that strategy as a planned concept for any long period of time.   It happens in transition periods when a guy is losing his status or folks are competing for the closer job, but the transition period always ends and the team goes with someone as their guy.

I don't know why that is, but whenever someone talks about how the Orioles or any other team should employ such a strategy, I have to point out that it just doesn't happen.   Even in this analytics driven era.   When it does for any length of time it is usually because a closer has failed and teams are desparately trying different guys to find someone who can do it.   Actually going in with a plan of using different guys based on situation all year... I haven't seen a team do it and I'm not holding my breath on it.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I never said closers don't lose their jobs.   They do, and someone else gets the job.  Happens all the time.

I agree with you that teams SHOULD try to do things differently and do a real closer by committee.   Many people have been saying that for years and it certainly makes sense.    I manage my Strat-o-matic team that way.

But the fact is, no one does it.  Not Tampa.   Not anyone.   Just about every major league manager has a go-to guy that he brings in for 9th inning save opportunities at any given point in the season.   If that guy loses his job, the manager then has a different go-to guy that he brings in.   Until THAT guy gets hurt or ineffective and loses his job.    The concept of having a bullpen with a variety of arms and using the one that is most appropriate to the leverage, or the situation, or the opponent, in the 9th inning sounds great.   And people talk about it all the time.   Even managers and GMs give it lip service.  But no major league team ever actually employs that strategy as a planned concept for any long period of time.   It happens in transition periods when a guy is losing his status or folks are competing for the closer job, but the transition period always ends and the team goes with someone as their guy.

I don't know why that is, but whenever someone talks about how the Orioles or any other team should employ such a strategy, I have to point out that it just doesn't happen.   Even in this analytics driven era.   When it does for any length of time it is usually because a closer has failed and teams are desparately trying different guys to find someone who can do it.   Actually going in with a plan of using different guys based on situation all year... I haven't seen a team do it and I'm not holding my breath on it.

I've advocated not using the designated closer for three run "gimmie" saves and you don't even see that very often.  You don't need your lockdown guy for that.

[HakunaSakata]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've advocated not using the designated closer for three run "gimmie" saves and you don't even see that very often.  You don't need your lockdown guy for that.

More than half of the MLB teams don't even have a true "lock down" guy.