Naoyuki Uwasawa Offer Being Prepared?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not going to hop up and down and say this is a terrible signing or whatever until it actually happens.  And even then, we still need to see how it stacks up with the rest of the moves in the offseason.  

I don't care that he doesn't have power stuff.  IMO, it's a tad overrated.  Movement, command, etc...always wins the day.  DC was a great reliever for us last year, he doesn't throw hard.  I get the kinky infatuation with high velocity guys for high leverage situations but batters today can turn around triple digits, too.

 

DC had a K rate over 10. A BB rate of 2 and a low HR rate. He missed bats a better than league average.

My complaint isn’t about his velo. It’s about his actual performance and what he does and doesn’t do.

The “infatuation” is with good command, high K guys who miss bats. Sometimes it’s an ODay or Coloumbe type guy that does that.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

DC had a K rate over 10. A BB rate of 2 and a low HR rate. He missed bats a better than league average.

My complaint isn’t about his velo. It’s about his actual performance and what he does and doesn’t do.

The “infatuation” is with good command, high K guys who miss bats. Sometimes it’s an ODay or Coloumbe type guy that does that.

I don’t disagree that Uwasawa’s K rate is a yellow flag.  I haven’t studied how Japanese K rates translate when a pitcher moves to the U.S.  On the one hand, US players are generally better.  On the other hand, US hitters’ style of hitting lends itself more to strikeouts.   I’m sure someone has studied this.  The average K/9 was 7.3 in the Japan League last year, 8.7 in MLB.   

Edited November 29, 2023 by Frobby

[LookinUp]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure…but do you know how many times that has been said over the last 1-2 years?

People always throw this stuff out yet it never happens.

”Well we signed Frazier, so obviously one of the young guys is on the move for a starter”. Nope.

This isn’t likely at all to be a precursor to anything.  

Yup. I get it. That's the problem. This type of move hasn't happened in the context of several other moves. It's always been a stand alone thing that isn't part of a larger list of moves.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

DC had a K rate over 10. A BB rate of 2 and a low HR rate. He missed bats a better than league average.

My complaint isn’t about his velo. It’s about his actual performance and what he does and doesn’t do.

I am pretty sure the general consensus about DC was "this signing sucks and makes no sense and WTF" when they purchased him from the Twins right at the end of Spring Training.  I am also pretty sure you pointed to his mostly subpar K-rates throughout his career with slight outliers (10.2 in 2016, 9.9 in 2018 but 6.6 in 2022 in a small sample size) and hated the move at worst and were confused by it at best.

And then lo and behold he went out and had a great season with, as you mentioned, a k rate over 10 and missed a lot of bats.  But no one here thought that was possible when we picked him up.

 

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Another head scratcher move in an offseason full of them.

 

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Not unusual but is it necessary?  And why have the 3rd guy be someone who hasn’t been a good pitcher?

 

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His career and age.

 

Wait, wait, wait...this one is my favorite:

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Ehh, not really. He hasn’t had much of a sample size in any recent years to make that proclamation and he was terrible last year in a very SSS. His walk rate is usually high, his K rate is ok, he gives up his fair share of homers, he’s old and he has had inconsistent splits vs lefties.

He throws strikes at a low rate and he usually doesn’t miss a lot of bats.

He has had some seasons where he has been better than in others, so he’s basically your typical dime a dozen reliever who may be ok but isn’t someone you crave to have on your team.

I like this one a lot, too:

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His K rate was 6.57…as was his BB rate. That’s awful and the hits and homers aren’t sustainable, obviously.

He just isn’t good. 

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As I said, he has had some ok years and some bad years..typical volatile, dime a dozen reliever. There wasn’t much reason to bring him in and hand him a spot.

Im guessing they saw him this spring and liked something about him.

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It was just a weird “must do” move. He’s not good, he’s old and doesn’t have a lot of success to fall back on. 

 

 

And then in April, a change of tune!

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His statcast numbers so far this year are incredible. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/danny-coulombe-543056?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

I don't particularly like the "well, if they worked their magic with DC, they can work their magic with NU" argument as painting in broad strokes isn't always a great idea...but maybe they can  If they see that the stuff is similar, they should be confident that they can get similar results.  I mean, that's what you want in a front office like this that is starting to get a reputation for being able to turn guys around.

I will say that I find it telling that Elias looks like he could jump on this guy this early in the offseason.  It appears that they had this guy on their radar for awhile to be able to make a decision this early, I don't believe that Elias has been known to deal this early in the offseason.  I'm not sure how they learned about him and scouted him but if the reports here are true then it looks like he was a target for Elias and it might be a shrewd move.

So, wait and see.  And wait and see how it falls in with whatever other moves are made in the offseason.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am pretty sure the general consensus about DC was "this signing sucks and makes no sense and WTF" when they purchased him from the Twins right at the end of Spring Training.  I am also pretty sure you pointed to his mostly subpar K-rates throughout his career with slight outliers (10.2 in 2016, 9.9 in 2018 but 6.6 in 2022 in a small sample size) and hated the move at worst and were confused by it at best.

And then lo and behold he went out and had a great season with, as you mentioned, a k rate over 10 and missed a lot of bats.  But no one here thought that was possible when we picked him up.

 

Wait, wait, wait...this one is my favorite:

I like this one a lot, too:

 

And then in April, a change of tune!

 

I don't particularly like the "well, if they worked their magic with DC, they can work their magic with NU" argument as painting in broad strokes isn't always a great idea...but maybe they can  If they see that the stuff is similar, they should be confident that they can get similar results.  I mean, that's what you want in a front office like this that is starting to get a reputation for being able to turn guys around.

I will say that I find it telling that Elias looks like he could jump on this guy this early in the offseason.  It appears that they had this guy on their radar for awhile to be able to make a decision this early, I don't believe that Elias has been known to deal this early in the offseason.  I'm not sure how they learned about him and scouted him but if the reports here are true then it looks like he was a target for Elias and it might be a shrewd move.

So, wait and see.  And wait and see how it falls in with whatever other moves are made in the offseason.

Yes, abnormal and strange things happen at times. Guys who have largely been failures come out of nowhere. 

Should we just sign lots of failed players and just see if we get lucky from now on?

And btw, you signed DC to a non gtd cheap deal. I have already said, go ahead and sign as many of those guys as you want.

What you just showed is why it’s dumb to sign this guy…because you can get that level production for less money and no gtd spot. Thanks for proving my point.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Flash- bd]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not going to hop up and down and say this is a terrible signing or whatever until it actually happens.  And even then, we still need to see how it stacks up with the rest of the moves in the offseason.  

I don't care that he doesn't have power stuff.  IMO, it's a tad overrated.  Movement, command, etc...always wins the day.  DC was a great reliever for us last year, he doesn't throw hard.  I get the kinky infatuation with high velocity guys for high leverage situations but batters today can turn around triple digits, too.

 

I agree, but am I missing something? This seems like a very tenuous link, and we are discussing it as if it seems like a likely signing? I don't see any strong link to him or suggestion that we're likely to sign him, did I miss something?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Flash- bd said:

I agree, but am I missing something? This seems like a very tenuous link, and we are discussing it as if it seems like a likely signing? I don't see any strong link to him or suggestion that we're likely to sign him, did I miss something?

The report is that the Os are prepared to offer him a multi year deal for 2-4 million per year and that they would use him as a back end starter.

[Number5]

11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Spin rates and stuff like that are very good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eno Sarris

 

@enosarris

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I'm hearing that Naoyuki Uwasawa will be posted soon by his NPB team. His K rates haven't been amazing in Japan, but he has some interesting characteristics to his stuff. His fastball vertical movement (19 IVB) and spin (2650 RPM) would be top 5-10% percent in the league.

12:30 PM · Nov 22, 2023

 

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Just curious... does anyone know how these figures translate to the MLB balls?  There is a slight difference in balls, I believe, but I don't know what effect that would have on vertical movement and spin.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

I agree, but am I missing something? This seems like a very tenuous link, and we are discussing it as if it seems like a likely signing? I don't see any strong link to him or suggestion that we're likely to sign him, did I miss something?

Yeah, we're bored and we want to see what happens this offseason and any little bit of information that comes out about a signing, we're going to act like it's a done deal and analyze it to death.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, we're bored and we want to see what happens this offseason and any little bit of information that comes out about a signing, we're going to act like it's a done deal and analyze it to death.

The Orioles offseason will really pickup next week when the Rule 5 Draft is held during the Winter Meetings. Rule 5 Draft is the time for the Orioles to shine.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I get a feeling that teams want one of our top 3 prospects for a legit starter. We probably don't want to do that, so it becomes a question of whether Elias 1) is willing to and 2) can get someone to bite for a quantity trade involving like 3 of Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad. Might even need a good 4th/5th piece with like Wagner, Stowers, Norby or some of our international guys.

If we offered Cowser, Ortiz, Norby and Wagner, I wonder if we could get a legit #1-2 starter with 3+ years of control. 

legit #1-2 starter with 3+ years of control. Who is that? That was Dylan Cease 2 years ago, and it would have cost you a top 3 as a headliner. Today Ortiz or Cowser, possibly Kjerstad as headliner. Come on lets get this Cease thing done.

[E-D-D-I-E]

Elias playing so close the vest, is no fun. Everyday I wait to see "O's acquire Burnes". Then I wake up, Sad.

 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

legit #1-2 starter with 3+ years of control. Who is that? 

Bradish and Rodriguez.  

[Safelykept]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bradish and Rodriguez.  

Again Cease 2 Years ago

[sportsfan8703]

32 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Elias playing so close the vest, is no fun. Everyday I wait to see "O's acquire Burnes". Then I wake up, Sad.

 

It's not a coincidence that DD and Elias have had to make the same types of moves at the mlb level to acquire talent.  Waivers/Rule 5/Asia.  This has been going on for so long that it's apparent that Miguel Tegada was the last big FA signing in O's history.