Ohtani to the Blue Jays? (Update: Signs w/Dodgers for $700 million over 10 yrs)

[Can_of_corn]

From what I have read both the Blue Jays and the Giants were on board with signing a very similar deal to the one he signed with the Dodgers.

I think the math checks out even if he doesn't reach on the field expectations.

[Sports Guy]

 

[drjohnnyfever1]

On 12/12/2023 at 6:26 PM, Moose Milligan said:

After all the jerseys sold, fans in the seats and what he does for the SoCal economy over the course of this deal, 700 million is going to be a bargain. 

I don't think that MLB teams bank on proceeds from shirt sales when they make deals with high caliber players.  I just think this is a risky wager given they are paying for a dual player and he might not return to that.

I don't hope for the Dodger's failure or Ohtani's.  I think he's great for baseball.  I guess I'm sort of glad to be a fan of a team that can't take these kinds of chances.  In some respects I think it's bad for the game that some teams have the ability to do this.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I don't think that MLB teams bank on proceeds from shirt sales when they make deals with high caliber players.  I just think this is a risky wager given they are paying for a dual player and he might not return to that.

I don't hope for the Dodger's failure or Ohtani's.  I think he's great for baseball.  I guess I'm sort of glad to be a fan of a team that can't take these kinds of chances.  In some respects I think it's bad for the game that some teams have the ability to do this.

Ohtani isn't other players.  While the valuation on the field will be bad if he can't pitch he brings in enough revenue that the deal is pretty bulletproof.

Also 46M/year isn't even that much of a bump.

[Just Regular]

I just spot checked Aaron Judge on Cot's, and having won his negotiation with NYY, it looks like there were no financial finesses - his CBT number is 40, same as the sticker on his contract.     Maybe Ohtani has a chance to be Judge + 15% as a hitter alone.

Ohtani 7.5.1994 is ~2500 PA of 148 OPS+, including periods of culture change and multi-tasking.

Judge 4.26.1992 is ~3000 PA of 164 OPS+

Judge has 2 back years on his contract at ages by which Ohtani's contract will be over.

[Sports Guy]

 

[deward]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ohtani isn't other players.  While the valuation on the field will be bad if he can't pitch he brings in enough revenue that the deal is pretty bulletproof.

Also 46M/year isn't even that much of a bump.

I think there's a better than even chance that he goes the John Smoltz-route and transitions into being the Dodgers closer at some point in order to protect his arm. If they decide to play him in the OF at some point, I wonder if that opens up some crazy options like having him pitch to a couple of batters in the 7th, go back to RF, then back to the mound in the 9th? That would be amazing, which probably means there's some dumb rule against it.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I guess I’m the only person left in the world who isn’t on Instagram, X, TikTok, Facebook or whatever the social media craze du jour happens to be.   

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ohtani isn't other players.  While the valuation on the field will be bad if he can't pitch he brings in enough revenue that the deal is pretty bulletproof.

Also 46M/year isn't even that much of a bump.

My perception of this deal changed completely once I heard about the deferral.  It’s still a somewhat risky deal, but nowhere near crazy.  

[Can_of_corn]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

The Instagram numbers are laughably low.

They have around 3M, Billie Eilish has 110M.

[drjohnnyfever1]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’m the only person left in the world who isn’t on Instagram, X, TikTok, Facebook or whatever the social media craze du jour happens to be.   

No ur not.  Forums are better any way. Lol.

[drjohnnyfever1]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Instagram numbers are laughably low.

They have around 3M, Billie Eilish has 110M.

...so that's sort of my point about merchandising.  It's not like it's WWE where they and each Main Eventer with a fancy shirt rakes in huge commissions.  The team gets a cut sure, but they don't sign the guy looking to recoup parts of a bad deal because "his merch numbers are good."

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

...so that's sort of my point about merchandising.  It's not like it's WWE where they and each Main Eventer with a fancy shirt rakes in huge commissions.  The team gets a cut sure, but they don't sign the guy looking to recoup parts of a bad deal because "his merch numbers are good."

It's not the merch numbers, it's the viewership from Japan.

[Jagwar]

I haven't fully examined the posts in this thread. There must be volumes of data on how a pitcher recovers from elbow surgery. But how can anyone know how Ohtani's elbow will hold up next year swinging the bat while recovering?