ROY manipulation

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He fell because of the bat concerns although some did have him as a top 10 talent.

And yes I do. Of course I’m basing that off of the scouting reports and trusting that they are accurate.

He had 25 steals in 25 games last season.

Im guessing he steals 80+ bases in the minors this year, if he’s healthy all year.

So he dropped because of concerns about his bat but he's going to get on base enough to be a likely 50+ stolen base guy.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So he dropped because of concerns about his bat but he's going to get on base enough to be a likely 50+ stolen base guy.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You are right, I should have added that to my post.

Thanks!

 

I know you should know this but you have to be able to get on base to steal bases (unless Severino is catching). 

I wonder what the fewest times on base for a 50 steal season is?

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are right, I should have added that to my post.

Thanks!

 

I know you should know this but you have to be able to get on base to steal bases (unless Severino is catching). 

I wonder what the fewest times on base for a 50 steal season is?

Not 50, but Herb Washington had 29 SBs in 1974 with zero plate appearances.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are right, I should have added that to my post.

Thanks!

 

I know you should know this but you have to be able to get on base to steal bases (unless Severino is catching). 

I wonder what the fewest times on base for a 50 steal season is?

You do get the whole basis of this conversation is that he has shown his bat is ready to be a ML starter on OD in 2025, right?

 

[RZNJ]

Cowser and Norby were much higher regarded hitters than Bradfield and struggled for 2-3 months at Aberdeen before excelling at Bowie and getting to AAA to end the year.  That’s a lot to ask of Bradfield.  I think a successful year for him is getting to AA and holding his own there.  I’d expect him to maybe even start 2025 in AA and get most of his AB’s in AAA that year with possibly some ML AB’s in the second half.   He should be ready by OD 2026.  Thats realistic.  OD 2025 is possible but extremely optimistic.  Could they put him in CF on OD 2025 before they think his bat is ready just to take advantage of his speed and defense?   If you say yes then you haven’t been paying attention.

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a red flag if his offense is still struggling and he doesn’t show that he is ready for the majors for 2025.

He should end this year in AAA and giving the Os the thought that he can start on OD in 2025.  
 

If he is struggling to the point that they can’t even consider starting him, that’s a red flag imo.  This assumes health of course.

This is a pretty high standard for the #17 pick. Cowser wasn’t ready for the OD roster this year and he was picked much higher. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

This is a pretty high standard for the #17 pick. Cowser wasn’t ready for the OD roster this year and he was picked much higher. 

And plenty of people are doubting him because of his high K numbers in the minors and poor showing in the majors.  

And btw, in 2022, Cowser essentially did the exact thing I’m talking about w/r/t EBJ. He went 3 levels and performed well. You could argue that he could have been on the ML roster to start 2023 and I believe I wanted him up then although im not 100% sure.

If EBJ does something similar, he will be in position to start because of that speed and defense.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You do get the whole basis of this conversation is that he has shown his bat is ready to be a ML starter on OD in 2025, right?

 

No because you have said things like how he'll be a failure of a pick ect ect.

This conversation is not based solely off the premise that he excells at hitting.

[emmett16]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cowser and Norby were much higher regarded hitters than Bradfield and struggled for 2-3 months at Aberdeen before excelling at Bowie and getting to AAA to end the year.  That’s a lot to ask of Bradfield.  I think a successful year for him is getting to AA and holding his own there.  I’d expect him to maybe even start 2025 in AA and get most of his AB’s in AAA that year with possibly some ML AB’s in the second half.   He should be ready by OD 2026.  Thats realistic.  OD 2025 is possible but extremely optimistic.  Could they put him in CF on OD 2025 before they think his bat is ready just to take advantage of his speed and defense?   If you say yes then you haven’t been paying attention.

Another small piece of this is his defense.  He’s elite because of his speed but as crazy as it sounds there’s a good bit of room for improvement.  There have been some fairly critical reviews of his routes and jumps.  Couple that with his weak arm and he still has some work to do on defensive side as well.  I’m sure he could hold the his own, but if his bat is lagging a bit in development, his D needs to be absolute top shelf.  I think he has a pretty full plate of things to work on in 2024.  I expect him to meet the challenge and show steady improvement. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

No because you have said things like how he'll be a failure of a pick ect ect.

This conversation is not based solely off the premise that he excells at hitting.

The part you quoted was me saying he steals 50+ bases as the starter. That would obviously mean (well obvious to most) he has put himself into position to be an everyday MLer.

And, since reading comprehension seems to fail you, I never said he would be a failure of a pick. I said if he doesn’t put himself in position to be able to be the everyday CFer in 2025, that he is far more likely to be a role player than an everyday player and that would be a  failure based off the teams expectations when they drafted him.

I don’t personally expect that. I expect and believe he will be the everyday CFer in 2025 and I believe that based on the several reasons I have already given.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Another small piece of this is his defense.  He’s elite because of his speed but as crazy as it sounds there’s a good bit of room for improvement.  There have been some fairly critical reviews of his routes and jumps.  Couple that with his weak arm and he still has some work to do on defensive side as well.  I’m sure he could hold the his own, but if his bat is lagging a bit in development, his D needs to be absolute top shelf.  I think he has a pretty full plate of things to work on in 2024.  I expect him to meet the challenge and show steady improvement. 

I haven’t seen anything particularly critical of his defense.

[RZNJ]

Westburg

Cowser

Kjerstad

Stowers

Ortiz

Haskin

What do these highly drafted college players have in common?    None of them were starting in the majors after their first full year in the minors.  Should I put red flags next to their names?

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So he dropped because of concerns about his bat but he's going to get on base enough to be a likely 50+ stolen base guy.

 

Could he have dropped in the 2023 draft because of the drive for EV and HH%?  EBJ didn't have the OPS he was projected for in 2023 for sure and EV isn't his game.    

IIRC, he was above guys like Schanuel, Troy, Shaw, and Eldridge in early mocks.  All hard hitters even if limited (comparatively if not objectively) defensively.

 

 

Having fun with the 50+/low OBP truism - The most extreme example that comes to mind:  from 2014-2017, Billy Hamilton averaged 58 SBs with a .297 OBP.  Otis Nixon, Tom Goodwin, Luis Aparicio, Mookie Wilson are other light on the OBP with an SB track record.

One year wonder, Pat Listach goes to your point though.  1992 - .352 OBP led to a 54 SB season.  The rest of his career (93-97) he had a .300 OBP with a total of 62 SB (25 in 1996). 

[emmett16]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I haven’t seen anything particularly critical of his defense.

I’m pretty sure Tony has made some comments and have seen mentioned in other places.  Mostly nit picks and in the context of how much better he will be when he makes those adjustments.  Let me try and find.  

Edited December 21, 2023 by emmett16