Breaking down Holliday’s swing

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How do you know?  

All of my professional at bats came while I was dreaming.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

All of my professional at bats came while I was dreaming.

Oh.  Just figured the old guys in your softball league liked it casual.

[Aglets]

On 6/3/2024 at 8:43 AM, Aglets said:

It's Monday!   That means we get another update!

Finally he had a fantastic week.

.412/.546/.765   in the last 6 games with 1 hr and 4 total xbh.

Hope he has a bunch of weeks like this now.

Overall since being demoted he is hitting:

.265/.423/.444     (.867)

Here is your weekly update.

Not as good as last week but still respectable enough I guess.

.240/.367/.440  with 1 hr in his last week of games.  

.261/.413/.444 since returning to AAA overall.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Here is your weekly update.

Not as good as last week but still respectable enough I guess.

.240/.367/.440  with 1 hr in his last week of games.  

.261/.413/.444 since returning to AAA overall.

He has a .900 OPS which should make me ecstatic and yet I want to see the BA climb over .300.  I saw his first AB yesterday where he struck out on 3 pitches and waved helplessly at the 0-2 slider against a LHP.  Kjerstad proceeded to rock a double to LF, Billy Cook homered, and Daniel Johnson got a single.  So Holliday was the only LH hitter of 3 who looked helpless.  His stats against LHP are decent though.

I’m not going to feel really confident in him until he stops bailing out.  I think if he came back up now they’d, sooner or later, exploit him on the outer 1/3 of the plate.   When he does drive balls to LF it’s generally on pitches in the middle.  He really looks awkward on anything close to the outside corner.

He seems like a student of hitting so it’s confusing (to me) why he doesn’t correct it.  Others have said it’s not a problem.  He must agree.

Edited June 10 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He has a .900 OPS which should make me ecstatic and yet I want to see the BA climb over .300.  I saw his first AB yesterday where he struck out on 3 pitches and waved helplessly at the 0-2 slider against a LHP.  Kjerstad proceeded to rock a double to LF, Billy Cook homered, and Daniel Johnson got a single.  So Holliday was the only LH hitter of 3 who looked helpless.  His stats against LHP are decent though.

I’m not going to feel really confident in him until he stops bailing out.  I think if he came back up now they’d, sooner or later, exploit him on the outer 1/3 of the plate.   When he does drive balls to LF it’s generally on pitches in the middle.  He really looks awkward on anything close to the outside corner.

He seems like a student of hitting so it’s confusing (to me) why he doesn’t correct it.  Others have said it’s not a problem.  He must agree.

Nice recap. It seems like he needs to start focusing on hitting those outside pitches to left field but maybe has decided that he can't do  damage on them so he's waiting on more middle-in. The problem is if he doesn't show the ability to hurt pitchers throwing him away, that's all he's going to see in the big leagues. 

As he gets stronger, he'll be able to drive the ball more to the opposite field and that should help. If not, he's going to have to be willing to take that single to leftfield until he does it so well, they're going to have to start pitching him elsewhere. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice recap. It seems like he needs to start focusing on hitting those outside pitches to left field but maybe has decided that he can't do  damage on them so he's waiting on more middle-in. The problem is if he doesn't show the ability to hurt pitchers throwing him away, that's all he's going to see in the big leagues. 

As he gets stronger, he'll be able to drive the ball more to the opposite field and that should help. If not, he's going to have to be willing to take that single to leftfield until he does it so well, they're going to have to start pitching him elsewhere. 

Tony, he has power the opposite way but, as you know, as soon as you start reaching, you lose all your power.  His front hip is taking everything with it, that he can’t even reach the outside corner with a normal swing.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, he has power the opposite way but, as you know, as soon as you start reaching, you lose all your power.  His front hip is taking everything with it, that he can’t even reach the outside corner with a normal swing.

He's been "stepping in the bucket" hitting his whole career, but what he was able to do against lower level pitching was keep his hands back and at least line the ball into left field for singles on outside pitches. Perhaps the quality of the pitching at the higher levels does not make that as feasible. 

I'm not a hitting mechanics experts, but I do know once it gets around how to get you out, you have to make the adjustments. He had not really failed for an extended amount of time (besides that stretch at Aberdeen) so perhaps some of this failure will encourage some adjustments.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He's been "stepping in the bucket" hitting his whole career, but what he was able to do against lower level pitching was keep his hands back and at least line the ball into left field for singles on outside pitches. Perhaps the quality of the pitching at the higher levels does not make that as feasible. 

I'm not a hitting mechanics experts, but I do know once it gets around how to get you out, you have to make the adjustments. He had not really failed for an extended amount of time (besides that stretch at Aberdeen) so perhaps some of this failure will encourage some adjustments.  

The funny thing is, I’ve seen minor league highlights of him barely picking that front foot up and he’s so much more squared up to the pitcher and, to me, that’s a better version.

Edited June 10 by RZNJ

[Aglets]

OK, as Holliday is now actually playing baseball games again, I feel like it's time to return to these updates. 

He only played in 4 games this past week.   He went 3 for 12 (with 6 BB).    His line was .250/.500/.333.

Since returning to AAA overall he is hitting .252/.425/.421  (.847).   48 BB to 50 K's.

Elite plate discipline,  but would really love to see him driving the ball just a little bit more.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

OK, as Holliday is now actually playing baseball games again, I feel like it's time to return to these updates. 

He only played in 4 games this past week.   He went 3 for 12 (with 6 BB).    His line was .250/.500/.333.

Since returning to AAA overall he is hitting .252/.425/.421  (.847).   48 BB to 50 K's.

Elite plate discipline,  but would really love to see him driving the ball just a little bit more.

I think it’s fair to ask if he’s getting much to hit. With all the walks, it certainly seems like teams are staying away from him, even more so than Mayo.

Would be nice to get some real reports about what is going on down there.

Edited Monday at 13:01 by Sports Guy

[Aglets]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s fair to ask if he’s getting much to hit. With all the walks, it certainly seems like teams are staying away from him, even more so than Mayo.

Would be nice to get some real reports about what is going on down there.

Holliday hits a lot of singles (plus a fair amt of doubles obv) and has yet to top 12 HR in a season.   I don't think there's much reason to think pitchers would be scared to pitch to him.  I think Holliday simply has a batting eye that is way above average.   If it is off the plate he just will not swing at it.  This is a great skill for a hitter to have, obviously...........however when he comes back to MLB he is likely going to see more pitches in the strikezone until he proves he can do damage to them.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Aglets said:

 

He only played in 4 games this past week.   He went 3 for 12 (with 6 BB).    His line was .250/.500/.333.

 

I would much rather see those two numbers reversed. 

[baltfan]

45 minutes ago, interloper said:

I would much rather see those two numbers reversed. 

.500 OBP is much more valuable than a .500 Slug

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

.500 OBP is much more valuable than a .500 Slug

I don't agree at all. In the majors maybe, but not in AAA.

Just my opinion. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Aglets said:

OK, as Holliday is now actually playing baseball games again, I feel like it's time to return to these updates. 

He only played in 4 games this past week.   He went 3 for 12 (with 6 BB).    His line was .250/.500/.333.

Since returning to AAA overall he is hitting .252/.425/.421  (.847).   48 BB to 50 K's.

Elite plate discipline,  but would really love to see him driving the ball just a little bit more.

I'm really not too concerned with his .169 ISO since returning to Norfolk.  Last year at all levels he had a .176 ISO, and at Norfolk it was .133.   

More concerning to me is 50 strikeouts in 207 PA (24.2%).  Last year he was at 20.3% overall, and 18.7% at Norfolk.  Before his call-up, he was at 14.3%.   So, while 24.2% is nothing to panic about, it's not what I expect from Holliday, and it goes a long way towards explaining his .252 BA.

All in all, my panic meter is at 0.1.   But, eventually I'd like him to start getting more hits and striking out less.