Orioles interested in Brasier?

[rm5678]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe we should just teach Jacob Webb a cutter.  How do the Dodgers and Rays take these nondescript relievers and turn them into something?

Evan Phillips certainly comes to mind for the Dodgers.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

Evan Phillips certainly comes to mind for the Dodgers.

And Robert Stephenson for the Rays.  From not good to dominant for 3 months.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe we should just teach Jacob Webb a cutter.  How do the Dodgers and Rays take these nondescript relievers and turn them into something?

The Dodgers did a few things.

I was going to do a long stat filled post, but the short story is that Brasier's 4 seam fastball is awful(.389 wOBA in 2022). Even so, Boston had him using it more than any other pitch despite the fact that he actually had a dominant slider. When he went to LA, they drastically reduced how often he threw that 4 seam and incorporated a cutter which also became a dominant pitch. This gave him 2 dominant offerings and he could use the 4 seam to keep batters honest. So yes, the cutter was huge for him, but Boston used him entirely wrong as well. Correcting both of those things turned him into the dominant reliever that posted a .70 ERA and 2.48 FIP in his 38 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He likely isn't sniffing that ERA again, but there's nothing to suggest that he isn't a guy who could post a sub 3.00 ERA again which is why there's so many teams in on him.

[Chelsea_Phil]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't want anyone who's name rhymes with Frazier.

He does have 17 games of post season experience so he's a bit of a been there, done that kind of guy.

Seriously though, I have a hard time getting that awful appearance against the Orioles out of my head in the famous Ryan McKenna dropped flyball game.

So obviously he was pretty horrid with Boston the last two years and looked about done, until the trade to the Dodgers who must've unlocked something.

So what did they unlock? To the Baseball Savant (picture a Batman-esque segway).

First thing I looked at was his pitch selection and since he only pitched for the Dodgers from June on, you get a nice clean split when you look it month to month.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the Dodgers cut his usage of his ineffective 4-seamer from over 50% usage (50.7% in Apr and 55% in May with Boston) down 34.1 % in his first month while introducing a cutter to him. Adding the cutter to his fastball, sinker, slider mix allowed each of the pitches to eventually play and by September, he was pretty untouchable (Batters slashed .139/.225/.139/.364 in 40 PAs against him in Sep).

So the question is, how much faith do the Orioles have in a going to be 36-year-old reliever (turns 37 in Aug) with his new cutter? 

Here's some highlights of the cutter last year.

I'll be honest, after adding the cutter, it's hard not to like what he can bring to the mound and I'd definitely take him over Webb, Baumann, Baker or even Tate. Just depends on the deal but you have to imagine if the Dodgers or Rangers are after him the Orioles are not going to outbid them. 

 

 

‘Famous Ryan McKenna game’?   I think you mean ‘infamous!

[Jim'sKid26]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't want anyone who's name rhymes with Frazier.

He does have 17 games of post season experience so he's a bit of a been there, done that kind of guy.

Seriously though, I have a hard time getting that awful appearance against the Orioles out of my head in the famous Ryan McKenna dropped flyball game.

So obviously he was pretty horrid with Boston the last two years and looked about done, until the trade to the Dodgers who must've unlocked something.

So what did they unlock? To the Baseball Savant (picture a Batman-esque segway).

First thing I looked at was his pitch selection and since he only pitched for the Dodgers from June on, you get a nice clean split when you look it month to month.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the Dodgers cut his usage of his ineffective 4-seamer from over 50% usage (50.7% in Apr and 55% in May with Boston) down 34.1 % in his first month while introducing a cutter to him. Adding the cutter to his fastball, sinker, slider mix allowed each of the pitches to eventually play and by September, he was pretty untouchable (Batters slashed .139/.225/.139/.364 in 40 PAs against him in Sep).

So the question is, how much faith do the Orioles have in a going to be 36-year-old reliever (turns 37 in Aug) with his new cutter? 

Here's some highlights of the cutter last year.

I'll be honest, after adding the cutter, it's hard not to like what he can bring to the mound and I'd definitely take him over Webb, Baumann, Baker or even Tate. Just depends on the deal but you have to imagine if the Dodgers or Rangers are after him the Orioles are not going to outbid them. 

 

 

The sinker looks rather good too. Average velocity 96 mph with 18.1 inches of vertical movement and 15.2 inches of horizontal movement. He has his lowest hardhit% on the sinker at 29.4% as well. Got to think the sinker/cutter/slider combo is where you want him in 2024. Maybe throw the 4SFB up and out of the zone on occasion? 

Looking at the heat maps, his slider and his cutter might be a nice combination to get LH hitters out. He appears not to throw the sinker to Lefties. Doesn't have an off speed pitch. Is he a candidate for a split-change?

[sportsfan8703]

The cutter is a good pitch for our ballpark. It neutralizes lefties. Then he’s got the sinker for the righties with out IF defense and LF/Wall. 

How much more is Stephenson worth that Bradshier?  Both found new teams, and the cutter in season. Both threw 38 IP with the new cutter. Stephenson had more Ks. Brazier had more WAR and lower ERA. 

[sportsfan8703]

What’s a realistic contract here?  1yr 8 million?

[ThomasTomasz]

On 1/6/2024 at 3:29 PM, RZNJ said:

Maybe we should just teach Jacob Webb a cutter.  How do the Dodgers and Rays take these nondescript relievers and turn them into something?

I mean, the Orioles of the past 13 years, especially going back to the old regime, have done a surprisingly good job of doing the same thing.  Britton and Matusz were failed top prospects who became relievers.  Britton was dominant with his sinker, Matusz excelled as a lefty specialist.  We scrap-heaped Brad Brach.  Darren ODay was extremely inconsistent.  Mychal Givens was a failed shortstop prospect with a big arm.  

We’re all familiar with the roster more recently, but we have our fair share of success stories.  It also comes with players that we didn’t figure out.  Webb has a live arm, maybe they do some tweaks this off-season.  I was surprised that the Angels gave up on him.  

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

I mean, the Orioles of the past 13 years, especially going back to the old regime, have done a surprisingly good job of doing the same thing.  Britton and Matusz were failed top prospects who became relievers.  Britton was dominant with his sinker, Matusz excelled as a lefty specialist.  We scrap-heaped Brad Brach.  Darren ODay was extremely inconsistent.  Mychal Givens was a failed shortstop prospect with a big arm.  

We’re all familiar with the roster more recently, but we have our fair share of success stories.  It also comes with players that we didn’t figure out.  Webb has a live arm, maybe they do some tweaks this off-season.  I was surprised that the Angels gave up on him.  

You’re right.  However Brazier and Stephenson went from bad to not just good but dominant.