How’s the East look now?

[oriolediehard]

MLB PECOTA experts still disrespect the O's.

 

3. Reigning AL East champs will fall well short of repeat

What PECOTA says: Orioles at 87 wins, seven behind Yankees

Why it’s notable: The Orioles feel ascendant right now. They jumped from 52 to 83 wins in 2022 and then from 83 to 101 last year, winning their second AL East title in the past 26 seasons behind a talented young roster. Obviously, it will be difficult to get much better than that in a tough division -- even with one of the sport’s elite farm systems featuring five of MLB Pipeline’s top 32 prospects (four of whom have a 2024 ETA). But especially with Corbin Burnes filling Baltimore’s burning need for an established ace, it feels as if this club is set up awfully well to lock up back-to-back division crowns for the first time since 1973-74.

Neither PECOTA nor FanGraphs' 2024 projections see it that way, though, pegging Baltimore as a third-place club, albeit one still in line for an AL Wild Card berth. Both also have the Yankees atop the division, despite coming off a massively disappointing 83-win campaign. There are some good reasons for that rosy outlook in the Bronx, and it starts with guys named Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. It’s also worth noting that the 2023 Orioles outperformed their Pythagorean record (based on run differential) by seven games, the second-biggest gap of any team. There are still several question marks in Baltimore, too, including how well a 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel can make up for the loss of lights-out closer Félix Bautista (Tommy John surgery). In the end, though, it’s easy to imagine this high-ceiling club outperforming those expectations

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Oh I didn't mean a literal "average."  I just used that as shorthand.

The projections are going to "favor" guys who have a "track record."  That's why it's going to skew winning projections to teams with more "established" players.

And if anyone doubts it, I posit the simple proposition: I'll take the over on the O's winning 87 games.  How much do you want to bet?

 

I would never bet on the under against the O’s.  I don’t want any conflicts of interest when I’m rooting.  

And I will take the over.  

 

[foxfield]

26 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

MLB PECOTA experts still disrespect the O's.

 

3. Reigning AL East champs will fall well short of repeat

What PECOTA says: Orioles at 87 wins, seven behind Yankees

Why it’s notable: The Orioles feel ascendant right now. They jumped from 52 to 83 wins in 2022 and then from 83 to 101 last year, winning their second AL East title in the past 26 seasons behind a talented young roster. Obviously, it will be difficult to get much better than that in a tough division -- even with one of the sport’s elite farm systems featuring five of MLB Pipeline’s top 32 prospects (four of whom have a 2024 ETA). But especially with Corbin Burnes filling Baltimore’s burning need for an established ace, it feels as if this club is set up awfully well to lock up back-to-back division crowns for the first time since 1973-74.

Neither PECOTA nor FanGraphs' 2024 projections see it that way, though, pegging Baltimore as a third-place club, albeit one still in line for an AL Wild Card berth. Both also have the Yankees atop the division, despite coming off a massively disappointing 83-win campaign. There are some good reasons for that rosy outlook in the Bronx, and it starts with guys named Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. It’s also worth noting that the 2023 Orioles outperformed their Pythagorean record (based on run differential) by seven games, the second-biggest gap of any team. There are still several question marks in Baltimore, too, including how well a 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel can make up for the loss of lights-out closer Félix Bautista (Tommy John surgery). In the end, though, it’s easy to imagine this high-ceiling club outperforming those expectations

I think this is pretty fair. And it explicitly states they can easily imagine this team outperforming those expectations.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

Oh I didn't mean a literal "average."  I just used that as shorthand.

The projections are going to "favor" guys who have a "track record."  That's why it's going to skew winning projections to teams with more "established" players.

And if anyone doubts it, I posit the simple proposition: I'll take the over on the O's winning 87 games.  How much do you want to bet?

 

I think you are missing a key point point and that’s that the track record has to be recent, say the last 2-3 years and even with that, are there signs of decline within those numbers?

[btdart20]

A few random thoughts:

Talent has shifted to analytics departments on teams and away from websites.  

Innovation has left with them.

Contractors have non-disclosure agreements.

Any model can be wrong.  Models are based on history and opinion of relevant inputs.  It’s not a targeted bias.  Maybe a naive one though.

Sigbot >> PECOTA until proven otherwise.

[DirtyBird]

10 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

False. The Yankees are the odds on favorite to win the East right now at +150.
 

The Orioles are +225, the Blue Jays are +400. 

Odds are largely based on anticipated public wagering. There are a lot of Yankee fans who gamble.

[dystopia]

10 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

False. The Yankees are the odds on favorite to win the East right now at +150.
 

The Orioles are +225, the Blue Jays are +400. 

That’s the doing of Yankee fans. 

[dystopia]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Perhaps they didn’t count on the Yankees losing 1,750 games to injury.  

That makes these projections kind of useless, doesn’t it?

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Odds are largely based on anticipated public wagering. There are a lot of Yankee fans who gamble.

Actually, the odds are based, or set, by oddsmakers. They move according to bets placed. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That makes these projections kind of useless, doesn’t it?

Sure.  It’s just a fun distraction in the offseason to guess which teams look good on paper.  I do think the algorithms do try to factor in injury risk, but injuries are episodic and when one hits it can throw an individual projection way off.  When a team gets really lucky or unlucky with injuries, it throws off the team projection.  The Yankees are an older team and probably have higher than average injury risk, but what happened to them last year was far greater than anyone could have anticipated.  They’re likely to have fewer injury problems this year even if they have an above average number of injuries compared to most teams.  

[DirtyBird]

21 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Actually, the odds are based, or set, by oddsmakers. They move according to bets placed. 

Right - the oddsmakers use anticipated public wagering to set the odds. 

 

Edited February 7 by DirtyBird

[Il BuonO]

40 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Right - the oddsmakers use anticipated public wagering to set the odds. 

 

You didn’t provide a link. And it says “may”. 
 

Probabilities is how the line is set and betting action determines how the line moves. The presumed action in markets “may” play a factor where odds are set, but it isn’t determinative.

Oddsmakers will set the lines according to the implied probability of either outcome happening. The sum of the probabilities exceeds 100%, as sportsbooks take a small cut on both sides of a line.

https://www.forbes.com/betting/guide/how-sports-betting-odds-work/#:~:text=Oddsmakers will set the lines,to make a certain profit.

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

You didn’t provide a link. And it says “may”. 
 

Probabilities is how the line is set and betting action determines how the line moves. The presumed action in markets “may” play a factor where odds are set, but it isn’t determinative.

Oddsmakers will set the lines according to the implied probability of either outcome happening. The sum of the probabilities exceeds 100%, as sportsbooks take a small cut on both sides of a line.

https://www.forbes.com/betting/guide/how-sports-betting-odds-work/#:~:text=Oddsmakers will set the lines,to make a certain profit.

 

Here is your link: https://www.thelines.com/betting/futures/

Your linked an article and quotes are discussing game lines, not futures. 

[Il BuonO]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

Here is your link: https://www.thelines.com/betting/futures/

Your linked an article and quotes are discussing game lines, not futures. 

Don’t know what you’re looking at in the link I posted, but it isn’t exclusive to “game” lines. 
 

And taken from what you posted….

“During the off-season, futures odds may change with free agent acquisitions as well. The odds changing for one team often lead to the odds changing for other competing teams. Futures odds at sports books tend to be based on the chance that something will happen.”

 That’s literally the definition of probability.

[Pickles]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I would never bet on the under against the O’s.  I don’t want any conflicts of interest when I’m rooting.  

And I will take the over.  

 

I didn't mean you personally; I meant the royal you.

Likewise, I never gamble.  I'm too cheap.

My point is though that the "flaw" of the system is pretty easy to spot in regards to this particular projection.