An updated guess at the bullpen

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would rather have Webb in Aberdeen than on the Os.

I don’t care what the baseball savant page showed, he blows. You can get a Webb like pitcher off the waiver wire whenever you want.

I would take Baumann over him 100 times out of 100. Baumann at least has a chance of being a higher impact guy and i suspect Baumann will have at least one season of being a high leverage reliever.  Webb isn’t that guy.

I know you were taking about Teheran here but just saying, it’s going to come down to a bunch of these types of guys and Baumann should be at the head of that list compared to all these dime a dozen guys.

Webb is really, really strong in the pitch models. By Stuff+ his fastball was 134, second on the Orioles behind Bautista at 135. His slider also grades well and he’s tied with Baumann at 114 overall in Stuff+. PitchingBot is similarly high on him.

I don’t disagree that Webb is a dime a dozen type, but he fits the mold of guys that the Dodgers and Rays (and Orioles!) pick up off of waivers and turn into a much better RP than they’ve been in the past. For every one of those success stories there’s a host of guys who don’t work and the churn continues. I’m not saying Webb is going to be one of those successes, but so long as he looks healthy in Spring Training I don’t think he’s reached the point yet where it’s onto the next one.

I’m betting the Orioles kept him and are trying to tinker with him some more with the benefit of the offseason and Spring Training in a way that they didn’t have the ability to do on the fly after picking him up midseason. 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Webb is really, really strong in the pitch models. By Stuff+ his fastball was 134, second on the Orioles behind Bautista at 135. His slider also grades well and he’s tied with Baumann at 114 overall in Stuff+. PitchingBot is similarly high on him.

I don’t disagree that Webb is a dime a dozen type, but he fits the mold of guys that the Dodgers and Rays (and Orioles!) pick up off of waivers and turn into a much better RP than they’ve been in the past. For every one of those success stories there’s a host of guys who don’t work and the churn continues. I’m not saying Webb is going to be one of those successes, but so long as he looks healthy in Spring Training I don’t think he’s reached the point yet where it’s onto the next one.

I’m betting the Orioles kept him and are trying to tinker with him some more with the benefit of the offseason and Spring Training in a way that they didn’t have the ability to do on the fly after picking him up midseason. 

Webb definitely has time to sneak back in and I do think what he did last year for us is wildly underrated. He saved our ass, until we ran him into the ground.

Right now though, I'll take the home grown Baumann for that spot. But I could definitely see them trying to carry Webb for a bit at the expense of Akin since he has options. It's toss up.

Edited March 7 by interloper

[Spy Fox]

This mix will probably change some because one or two of these ~10 candidates may hit the IL before Opening Day, and there's a decent chance Elias brings in someone random in the second half of camp. 

[clapdiddy]

After the top 4, I'm not really confident.   Well, I'm not 100% confident with Cano, either.   Kimbrell and the two lefties are the only two that I somewhat trust to be productive, if used in the right way.  The rest of these guys are a crapshoot.

[ChosenOne21]

I'm not sure why so many people think this is a crappy bullpen. Sure, it probably won't be as good as last year, but that's a long way from crappy.

Kimbrel is a die-roll, I'll give you that.

Cano should be good.

Coulombe should be good.

Perez has a strong chance to be good. He walks too many, but he gives up weak contact.

Tate, Baumann, and Akin all have question marks but have all looked good so far.

I don't know what you guys want from Webb. He had a 3.27 ERA / 2.80 FIP in half a season for us last year. He walks a lot of guys, but he doesn't give up many hits. He didn't give up any home runs after he came over. His WHIP was 1.182, which is pretty good for a reliever. He doesn't exactly scream "closer" but he seems like a fine middle reliever.

You could do worse for depth than Baker and Vespi

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm not sure why so many people think this is a crappy bullpen. Sure, it probably won't be as good as last year, but that's a long way from crappy.

Kimbrel is a die-roll, I'll give you that.

Cano should be good.

Coulombe should be good.

Perez has a strong chance to be good. He walks too many, but he gives up weak contact.

Tate, Baumann, and Akin all have question marks but have all looked good so far.

I don't know what you guys want from Webb. He had a 3.27 ERA / 2.80 FIP in half a season for us last year. He walks a lot of guys, but he doesn't give up many hits. He didn't give up any home runs after he came over. His WHIP was 1.182, which is pretty good for a reliever. He doesn't exactly scream "closer" but he seems like a fine middle reliever.

You could do worse for depth than Baker and Vespi

I think the pen has a chance to be fine. 
 

I’m expecting Kimbrel to mostly do his job. Have a 2.75-3.5 ERA. Be very good most of the time and throw a few garbage performances in there.

There isn’t any one other pitcher that I feel confident in.  There are plenty that I think could be good but no one I feel confident in.

It’s not a big swing and miss group. Not a ton of Ks group. It is a lot of guys that have only been good at times but not anything close to consistent. 
 

I could see being anywhere from very solid to one of the worst in the league.

[Say O!]

Which contenders have a good enviable bullpen?  To me, looking at projected depth charts for other teams shows that bullpens on paper are rather middling this year.  Especially spots 6-8.  
 

I think Os depth is better than most.  And in terms of the high(er) leverage innings, I think Elias will use first two months to assess whether

a. Current options suffice

b. Bradish/Means return pushing Wells to bullpen

c. McDermott/Johnson play a role like Hall for stretch run

d. Any clarity on the INF and OF prospects enabling a trade for pitching

 

[Sports Guy]

Webb started off with the Os with 9 straight scoreless outings.  In that time frame, he gave up 2 hits, 2 walks and struck out 12 in 8.2.

After that,  including the playoffs, he gave up 10 runs and was scored on in 39% of his appearances.  He pitched 15.1 IP, gave up 16 hits, walked 9, struck out 12 and gave up the 2 homers in the playoffs. 
 

His BB rate is usually not that good. He will miss bats but his K rates are good but not great. His Hr rate over his career isn’t bad but he is a fly ball pitcher.

I think he likely makes the team because of salary and lack of options but him being DFA’ed by June wouldn’t surprise me. OTOH, he also could be a 3-4 ERA type guy that is serviceable most of the time. That wouldn’t totally shock me either, as I think lots of relievers could accomplish that season from time to time.

 

[UMDTerrapins]

I don’t have a ton of confidence in that group, but I’m not worried either. The org has a talent for finding talent and coaching it up. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Say O! said:

Which contenders have a good enviable bullpen?  To me, looking at projected depth charts for other teams shows that bullpens on paper are rather middling this year.  Especially spots 6-8.  
 

I think Os depth is better than most.  And in terms of the high(er) leverage innings, I think Elias will use first two months to assess whether

a. Current options suffice

b. Bradish/Means return pushing Wells to bullpen

c. McDermott/Johnson play a role like Hall for stretch run

d. Any clarity on the INF and OF prospects enabling a trade for pitching

 

Yankees have a big time pen.  Rays always do. Houston likely will. Seattle has a bunch of great arms out there although Brash could be out a while.  Twins have some good arms. 
 

If Bradish isn’t out a while and Means gets into the rotation quickly, we would be in better shape.  Right now, I think it’s a lot of hoping and relying on guys that really haven’t shown they can put together back to back good seasons.

[O's84]

It would have been nice to get Hader.  Elite arm to cover for Felix and then next year having a potenital 1-2 punch between Felix and Hader, nasty! ....

But that was never going to happen under JA of course.

[Aristotelian]

I still think this bullpen would be solid if it just had Wells in it. I may be inclined to piece something together for the 5th starter spot until Bradish or Means is ready rather than try to stretch Wells out again. But that depends on how those guys are doing, and there needs to be a backup plan. 

Suarez is a good fit for the Fuji "international experiment guy" spot. Mostly low leverage, see how he does, use in the occasional high leverage spot when other guys aren't available.

Akin has been consistently awful aside from the first half of '22. I would be upset, possibly apoplectic, if he makes the team. 

Rotation: Burnes Grayson Kremer Irvin [one of Teheran/Zimmermann]

Top 7 Bullpen: Kimbrel Cano Coulombe Cionel Wells Tate Suarez

Last spot: Webb

One spot for Webb, Baumann, Vespi, Baker, or a wild card like McDermott. I am guessing we go with Webb since he is out of options and we risk losing him. However, I would prefer Baumann as the last guy. If it's me, Akin wouldn't see the light of day until all these options have been exhausted.

[RZNJ]

I’m cautiously optimistic about the bullpen.  I’ve only seen Baumann once but he looked less muscle bound and just looked more free and easy.  Reports of 97-98 and “better rhythm” have me thinking he might be ready to step up into a trusted 7th and 8th inning arm.  Tate looks like he’s back to pre-injury form.   Good chance we have ML caliber relievers like Baker and Akin starting in Norfolk.

I also think Albert Suarez could become a key piece out there.  A long way to go but I think the ingredients are there.

Also, Ort, Krook, and Andrew Suarez are nice additional depth pieces and Seth Johnson and McDermott are potential power arms available.   

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yankees have a big time pen.  Rays always do. Houston likely will. Seattle has a bunch of great arms out there although Brash could be out a while.  Twins have some good arms. 
 

If Bradish isn’t out a while and Means gets into the rotation quickly, we would be in better shape.  Right now, I think it’s a lot of hoping and relying on guys that really haven’t shown they can put together back to back good seasons.

While these teams had good bullpens last year (and may this year as well), I would think their fans have similar question marks about guys 5 thru 8.  Looking at roster resource projections

NYY = Marinaccio, Gonzalez, Poteet, Weaver

TBR = Armstrong, Cleavinger, Devenski, Alexander

HOU = Blanco, Sousa, Martinez, Bielak

MIN = Topa, Okert, Staumont, Jackson

SEA = Saucedo, Thornton, Vargas, Voth

Not exactly awe-inspiring rosters there.  In terms of the back-end, while HOU got Hader  they lost Neris, TBR lost Stephenson, and SEA has Brash injury concerns.

[dystopia]

Losing Michael King will hurt the Yankees. He was filthy.