Wash picks Patrick Sandoval for Opening Day

[Moose Milligan]

I wonder if some of the analytics Sig has done have suggested that having a preponderance of lefties in the lineup, over time, outweighs the advantage of having a righty dominant lineup or a balanced lineup.  That other teams can throw lefties at our lefty-laden lineup and they'll more or less hold their own and crush righties.  There's some math or some odds there about perhaps losing more left/left matchups in order to win more right/left matchups.

Especially in the home park.  Move the LF wall back to neutralize power to left field for the opposing teams, load a lineup of left handed batters to take aim at the flag court.  I don't believe that this is a coincidence.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Get used to it. Teams are going to throw as many lefties against us as possible. That’s why Mayo probably makes the team. 

We had a .764 OPS vs. LHP last year, .733 vs. RHP.   If other teams want to throw lefties at us, bring it on!

[Spy Fox]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We had a .764 OPS vs. LHP last year, .733 vs. RHP.   If other teams want to throw lefties at us, bring it on!

That's true, but, the OPS against lefties at home was .694. On the road it was .835, second in MLB. In 2022 the OPS against lefties was .635 at home, .689 on the road. So it's valid that we've struggled against lefties at home since the wall was built. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

That's true, but, the OPS against lefties at home was .694. On the road it was .835, second in MLB. In 2022 the OPS against lefties was .635 at home, .689 on the road. So it's valid that we've struggled against lefties at home since the wall was built. 

Well, seems to me that discrepancy isn’t cured by adding more right-handed batters who are more likely to hit the ball towards the LF wall.   

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, seems to me that discrepancy isn’t cured by adding more right-handed batters who are more likely to hit the ball towards the LF wall.   

Just looking into this a bit more for my own curiosity, these were the full team OPS splits last year:

• Right on Left home/road .749/.851
• Left on Left home/road .502/.784 
• Right on Right home/road .692/.667
• Left on Right home/road .764/.761

So for whatever reason, both our righties and lefties were marginally better against RHPs when they were at home, but significantly worse against LHPs when they were at home. 

The huge left on left discrepancy is probably inflated by some smaller sample size noise. But I think it's an interesting trend to watch if new Camden continues to favor LHPs regardless of batter hand. 

[maybenxtyr]

I get some of the matchup love, but it's opening day at home...I doubt very seriously that they're going to put a subpar lineup out that day.

[Just Regular]

13 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I get some of the matchup love, but it's opening day at home...I doubt very seriously that they're going to put a subpar lineup out that day.

I'm curious to see how it play out.    Sig the blackjack dealer won't recommend deviating from basic strategy because of some orange carpet.

I do wonder if C McCann, DH Adley occurs against the lefty if Sigbot assesses McCann in the Best 9 v. LHP.    Leaving Holliday off the roster for simplicity's sake:

LF Hays, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, SS Gunnar, 2B Westburg, DH McCann, CF Mullins, 3B Urias

Perhaps more C Adley, DH McCann if the Burnes-Adley relationship is the priority, but long run any game the Orioles chase the platoon advantage for 2 McCann PA's they have a chance to lessen Adley's load.

[maybenxtyr]

17 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I'm curious to see how it play out.    Sig the blackjack dealer won't recommend deviating from basic strategy because of some orange carpet.

I do wonder if C McCann, DH Adley occurs against the lefty if Sigbot assesses McCann in the Best 9 v. LHP.    Leaving Holliday off the roster for simplicity's sake:

LF Hays, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, SS Gunnar, 2B Westburg, DH McCann, CF Mullins, 3B Urias

Perhaps more C Adley, DH McCann if the Burnes-Adley relationship is the priority, but long run any game the Orioles chase the platoon advantage for 2 McCann PA's they have a chance to lessen Adley's load.

The Adley and McCann deal makes sense. 

[jamalshw]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I'm curious to see how it play out.    Sig the blackjack dealer won't recommend deviating from basic strategy because of some orange carpet.

I do wonder if C McCann, DH Adley occurs against the lefty if Sigbot assesses McCann in the Best 9 v. LHP.    Leaving Holliday off the roster for simplicity's sake:

LF Hays, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, SS Gunnar, 2B Westburg, DH McCann, CF Mullins, 3B Urias

Perhaps more C Adley, DH McCann if the Burnes-Adley relationship is the priority, but long run any game the Orioles chase the platoon advantage for 2 McCann PA's they have a chance to lessen Adley's load.

I'd honestly rather Mateo than Urias if we are making the decision based on it being a LHP. Mateo is not a good hitter, but did have a solid OPS vs. LHP last year. Meanwhile, Urias has not been a good hitter against LHP in his career. His OPS was .654 against them last year.

[Tony-OH]

On 3/19/2024 at 4:24 PM, Spy Fox said:

McKenna and Nevin, no chance. Mateo and Urias, wouldn't be surprised to see one of them.

My current guess against a lefty with how ST has shaken out? 

1. LF Hays
2. C Rutschman
3. Rf Santander
4. 1b Mountcastle
5. 3b Henderson
6. Cf Mullins
7. Dh Westburg
8. 2b Holliday
9. Ss Mateo

Henderson hasn't played a an inning at 3B this spring from what I've seen. I don't think the Orioles plan to move him around this year barring an injury.

[DirtyBird]

Let’s go!

 

Gunnar SS 

Adley C

Mountcastle 1B

Santander RF 

Hays LF

Urias 3B

Nevin DH

Westburg 2B

Mullins CF

[CP0861]

On 3/21/2024 at 1:07 PM, jamalshw said:

I'd honestly rather Mateo than Urias if we are making the decision based on it being a LHP. Mateo is not a good hitter, but did have a solid OPS vs. LHP last year. Meanwhile, Urias has not been a good hitter against LHP in his career. His OPS was .654 against them last year.

Urias is a respectable 3-7 (.429) vs. Sandoval. Mateo is 0-2. Pretty sure Urias will be on 3rd.

Hays and Santander also have nice #'s vs Sandoval (albeit limited at bats).

Edited March 25 by CP0861

[Just Regular]

Robert Stephenson has been unable to pitch this spring with a sore shoulder, and looks like he may not make the Opening Day roster.

The Rays unlocking his dominant mode for a few months may have overtaxed his talent, but did get him his $30M in guarantees.    Not from Mike Elias.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Robert Stephenson has been unable to pitch this spring with a sore shoulder, and looks like he may not make the Opening Day roster.

The Rays unlocking his dominant mode for a few months may have overtaxed his talent, but did get him his $30M in guarantees.    Not from Mike Elias.

 

Not sure what this has to do with the Angels Opening Day match-up, but I'll reply anyway. I'm starting to notice a pattern with free agents like that. Same thing happened with Rodon and Verlander last season. They signed big deals then got shut down with an injury to start the season.

[Spy Fox]

On 3/19/2024 at 4:11 PM, SteveA said:

Yeah, so a lefty starter on Opening Day.   The board will melt down if 2 of [Mateo/Urias/McKenna/Nevin] are in the lineup to get RH bats in there at the expense of LH hitting prospects!

On 3/19/2024 at 4:24 PM, Spy Fox said:

McKenna and Nevin, no chance.

Oops, I guess there was a chance.