Gunnar Henderson 2024

[vab]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar is not turning down the Witt contract 

How many Boras clients haven't gone to free agency? I think Strasburg was a Boras guy who didn't go but I can't recall anyone else. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think he would. He has absolutely no reason to sell a single free agent year right now when he's on pace to get a $400+ million contract at age 27.

Zero chance he turns it down.  The money in that deal is essentially his best case scenario. Zippy chance.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, vab said:

How many Boras clients haven't gone to free agency? I think Strasburg was a Boras guy who didn't go but I can't recall anyone else. 

This has been discussed a ton over the years.  It hasn’t been many but there have been a few. Jared Weaver was one. Searching through here or on google will give you the info.  
 

But none of that matters imo. He’s not turning down that contract.  There is nothing but upside for him with that type of deal. 

Now, maybe instead of 7 guaranteed years, we now get 6 (ie, we didn’t sign him to the deal before this season started, so that’s one less guaranteed year on the deal) but he’s not turning it down. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero chance he turns it down.  The money in that deal is essentially his best case scenario. Zippy chance.

He's on pace to land a guaranteed contract in the $400-500 million dollar range at like 27 years old and his agent is Scott freakin' Boras. Absolutely nothing about that screams "I am going to sell even a single free agent year."

Will he listen to extension offers? Probably.

Will he actually accept one? Probably not.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's on pace to land a guaranteed contract in the $400-500 million dollar range at like 27 years old and his agent is Scott freakin' Boras. Absolutely nothing about that screams "I am going to sell even a single free agent year."

Will he listen to extension offers? Probably.

Will he actually accept one? Probably not.

This is silly. 
 

At any point, he could get hurt, have a down year, etc..

He is an Oriole for the next 4 years.  He will make around 50 million for the next 4 years.

So, if you pay him 70ishM for 2 FA years, that is a 6/120 extension that is basically giving him all the money he will make the next 6 years.  
 

After that, he gets opt outs for several years at big money and gets total security.

It's actually a bad contract for the team as all the risk is on them.

The only downside for Gunnar on this deal is if he stays completely healthy and his performance maintains at this level for 4 more years.

If that happens, he probably loses 8-20 million (depending on where contracts go) for those 2 years and then he can still go get his 400M contract.

So, he risks losing a little money(in a best case scenario world) for a ton of guaranteed money that gives him total protection against everything and he still goes into FA at an age where he can get the mega deal.

Hes not turning that down.

Offer him the Witt deal but 6 gtd years instead of 7, maybe add 2-5% because its the “next deal” and get it done.

Edited June 17 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think he would. He has absolutely no reason to sell a single free agent year right now when he's on pace to get a $400+ million contract at age 27.

He has a huge reason: risk. The $400M is not guaranteed. Setting aside performance, he is one big injury away from ending up with zero. So far he has locked in about $4M with zero dollars guaranteed beyond that. Grady Sizemore was Gunnar-level through Age 26 and ended up with only $30M. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He has a huge reason: risk. The $400M is not guaranteed. Setting aside performance, he is one big injury away from ending up with zero. So far he has locked in about $4M with zero dollars guaranteed beyond that. Grady Sizemore was Gunnar-level through Age 26 and ended up with only $30M. 

 

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is silly. 
 

At any point, he could get hurt, have a down year, etc..

He is an Oriole for the next 4 years.  He will make around 50 million for the next 4 years.

So, if you pay him 70ishM for 2 FA years, that is a 6/120 extension that is basically giving him all the money he will make the next 6 years.  
 

After that, he gets opt outs for several years at big money and gets total security.

It's actually a bad contract for the team as all the risk is on them.

The only downside for Gunnar on this deal is if he stays completely healthy and his performance maintains at this level for 4 more years.

If that happens, he probably loses 8-20 million (depending on where contracts go) for those 2 years and then he can still go get his 400M contract.

So, he risks losing a little money for a ton of guaranteed money that gives him total protection against everything and he still goes into FA at an age where he can get the mega deal.

Hes not turning that down

Juan Soto and Scott Boras reportedly chose to turn down a $440 million dollar extension offer from the Nats despite the risk of waiting due to the sky high upside of hitting free agency as young as possible with his talent level, so I would fully expect Boras to counsel Gunnar to do the same. Would Gunnar ignore that counsel? Maybe, but the fact that he chose to sign with the Boras Corporation in the first place leads me to believe that he would not.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Juan Soto and Scott Boras reportedly chose to turn down a $440 million dollar extension offer from the Nats despite the risk of waiting due to the sky high upside of hitting free agency as young as possible with his talent level, so I would fully expect Boras to counsel Gunnar to do the same. Would Gunnar ignore that counsel? Maybe, but the fact that he chose to sign with the Boras Corporation in the first place leads me to believe that he would not.

Agreed, I was just taking issue with the "no reason" comment. I don't have SG's certainty that he would accept but he definitely has reasons to accept.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Juan Soto and Scott Boras reportedly chose to turn down a $440 million dollar extension offer from the Nats despite the risk of waiting due to the sky high upside of hitting free agency as young as possible with his talent level, so I would fully expect Boras to counsel Gunnar to do the same. Would Gunnar ignore that counsel? Maybe, but the fact that he chose to sign with the Boras Corporation in the first place leads me to believe that he would not.

There is a lot wrong with this.

First of all, this deal was offered to him in July of 2022, when he was only 2 years away from FA.

Secondly, Soto knew he was going to make 50ishM for the 2 years left under team control.

So that deal was 13/390.  That is “only” 30M a year, which is low.  The deal was also heavily backloaded, which he didn’t like. 
 

Had the offered him 500M, I think he signs the deal but since they didn’t, he felt the gamble was worth it for just 2 years (Gunnar has 4).
 

Also, he seemed to doubt the direction of the team, which I would doubt Gunnar would do.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/nationals-juan-soto-discusses-rejecting-15-year-440m-offer

[The Goob]

Gunnar has 5.0 WAR in 70 games.  He is on pace for 50 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB and an OPS over 950.  I tired of the extension talk.  I believe they will get something done but would rather just enjoy watching him play.  I was crushed when Chris Davis got Manny's money and he walked the next year because I wanted to see a talent like that for their whole career on the Orioles.  I think Gunnar is as talented maybe even more than Manny and is a way better sportsman and teammate from all reports.  He demeanor remind me so much of Cal and his talent is otherworldly.  I like to browse Baseball Reference from time to time and one thing I always find interesting is to look at their Similarity Scores for players through their current age.  In the top ten for Gunnar there are three Hall of Famers - Tony Lazzeri, Gary Carter and Scott Rolen.  Others in there are Eric Chavez, Travis Fryman and Bobby Witt, JR.  We all know how good Gunnar is but sometimes we undervalue the fact that he has a chance to be the best player in baseball for the next ten years.  I get all the talk about the business of baseball because it matters in building a winner but the joy of being a fan for me is watching players like Ripken, Murray, Jones, Manny, Adley and Gunnar; probably my favorite Orioles ever.

Edited June 17 by The Goob

[spleen1015]

Bobby Witt, Jr. Contract

I'll believe Gunnar signs when he signs and I don't think he signs with the O's before hitting FA first.

What SG says makes a lot of sense, but Gunnar is going to bet on himself and hit FA.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Bobby Witt, Jr. Contract

I'll believe Gunnar signs when he signs and I don't think he signs with the O's before hitting FA first.

What SG says makes a lot of sense, but Gunnar is going to bet on himself and hit FA.

Wait, there’s a ZERO chance he turns down the Witt contract.   Haven’t you heard?

 

Not that they will offer him the Witt contract.

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Bobby Witt, Jr. Contract

I'll believe Gunnar signs when he signs and I don't think he signs with the O's before hitting FA first.

What SG says makes a lot of sense, but Gunnar is going to bet on himself and hit FA.

I'll believe it if he signs it, too.  

If he wins the MVP this year, that contract is going to have to be higher than the BWJ contract, too.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Bobby Witt, Jr. Contract

I'll believe Gunnar signs when he signs and I don't think he signs with the O's before hitting FA first.

What SG says makes a lot of sense, but Gunnar is going to bet on himself and hit FA.

He’s still getting on himself with the deal I’m saying..he’s just betting on himself with a ton of security in his back pocket.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll believe it if he signs it, too.  

If he wins the MVP this year, that contract is going to have to be higher than the BWJ contract, too.  

It likely has to be higher than Witt’s contract right now.  It’s like the NFL.  The next guy gets the bigger deal.