Soft or difficult early schedule?

[HelenaEngineer]

Conventional wisdom was that with early games against Kansas City, the Angels, Pirates, Brewers and Red Sox that the Orioles early schedule was pretty soft. Projected PECOTA standings had everyone except the Brewers well under .500 and the Brewers at 83-79. If you discount the games those teams have played vs the Orioles, where they obviously have gone 6-9, they are 41-22 overall. That's a pretty impressive record. While obviously 15 games or so is a small sample size, it isn't quite as obvious that 63 games spread over 5 small samples is still all that small of a sample. It has been a long time since I took statistics, but I am not so sure that schedule is near as soft as everyone was expecting.

[Aglets]

Was just about to start a thread on this.   Glad someone else did so I can just piggy back off of it heh.

Found a fascinating tool at ESPN:

2024 MLB Baseball Relative Power Index - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

Big takeaways:

-Orioles have had the hardest schedule in all of MLB so far

-if you use their formula for RPI (relative power index) that attempts to adjust W/L record to account for opponent's Strength of Schedule...........we are the 2nd best team in MLB.

None of that guarantees anything of course for the future.  But it should be encouraging for O's fans.   It is for me.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

Feel like we’re pretty fortunate to have pulled out a 9-6 record given some of the challenges these teams have thrown at us. Going 7-0 in starts by Burnes and Grayson is obviously a huge part of it. 

[OriolesMagic83]

12 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Was just about to start a thread on this.   Glad someone else did so I can just piggy back off of it heh.

Found a fascinating tool at ESPN:

2024 MLB Baseball Relative Power Index - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

Big takeaways:

-Orioles have had the hardest schedule in all of MLB so far

-if you use their formula for RPI (relative power index) that attempts to adjust W/L record to account for opponent's Strength of Schedule...........we are the 2nd best team in MLB.

None of that guarantees anything of course for the future.  But it should be encouraging for O's fans.   It is for me.

 

The Royals and Pirates might have looked like easy parts of the schedule heading into the year, but they have really improved.  Of course, so much for this being the Brewers' rebuild year.  I'm waiting for the team that is easier than last year.  Maybe the Red Sox?

[Frobby]

It almost doesn’t matter if these teams are better than expected, or have just been playing over their heads in the early going.  Either way, they were playing very well when we played them, and going 9-6 in that stretch is a solid outcome.   I do wish we’d pulled out one of those Pirates games we lost in walk-off fashion.  But overall, no big complaints.  

[Philip]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Feel like we’re pretty fortunate to have pulled out a 9-6 record given some of the challenges these teams have thrown at us. Going 7-0 in starts by Burnes and Grayson is obviously a huge part of it. 

If we are 7-0 in games started by Burnes and Rodriguez, that means we’re two and six in every other game, and that screams, “do something!”

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It almost doesn’t matter if these teams are better than expected, or have just been playing over their heads in the early going.  Either way, they were playing very well when we played them, and going 9-6 in that stretch is a solid outcome.   I do wish we’d pulled out one of those Pirates games we lost in walk-off fashion.  But overall, no big complaints.  

The Pirates are a good team. They are only going to be better when they bring up Skenes.

I have often wondered about the possibility of a pirates and Orioles rematch. I think that would be really cool.

[yark14]

Both.

[HelenaEngineer]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

If we are 7-0 in games started by Burnes and Rodriguez, that means we’re two and six in every other game, and that screams, “do something!”

I do think the 2-6 record does cry out "small sample size" as opposed to "do something". I assume you are aware that 2 of those losses were games in which the Orioles got 3 hits and scored 1 run and would likely have lost with any pitcher on the mound and that two of them were 1 run losses in Pittsburgh where the Orioles allowed 3 runs through 9 innings. As ugly as the Fri/Sat games were against the Brewers, other than giving Bradish and Means a chance to see if they can step in, I don't really get the screaming "do something" based on the season so far.

[ScGO's]

10 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

I do think the 2-6 record does cry out "small sample size" as opposed to "do something". I assume you are aware that 2 of those losses were games in which the Orioles got 3 hits and scored 1 run and would likely have lost with any pitcher on the mound and that two of them were 1 run losses in Pittsburgh where the Orioles allowed 3 runs through 9 innings. As ugly as the Fri/Sat games were against the Brewers, other than giving Bradish and Means a chance to see if they can step in, I don't really get the screaming "do something" based on the season so far.

 

3 hours ago, Philip said:

If we are 7-0 in games started by Burnes and Rodriguez, that means we’re two and six in every other game, and that screams, “do something!”

I see it both ways. I think Irvin and Wells have enough track record to deserve some time to turn it around and give quality starts. Means will make it back at some point, still not sure on Bradish. But beyond Povich at AAA, there isn't much MLB ready pitching coming from the minors. And with guys like "Yohan Ramirez" in our bullpen, its unfortunate that our best bullpen depth is in the starting rotation at the moment.

The Orioles have a pitching depth problem. Injuries and under performance can happen, as do new performers that can come out of no where. I know Elias has got to be looking for quality SP and RP options to help create more MLB pitching depth, and possibly a high level impact arm or two to take some immediate stress off the staff.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HelenaEngineer said:

I do think the 2-6 record does cry out "small sample size" as opposed to "do something". I assume you are aware that 2 of those losses were games in which the Orioles got 3 hits and scored 1 run and would likely have lost with any pitcher on the mound and that two of them were 1 run losses in Pittsburgh where the Orioles allowed 3 runs through 9 innings. As ugly as the Fri/Sat games were against the Brewers, other than giving Bradish and Means a chance to see if they can step in, I don't really get the screaming "do something" based on the season so far.

100% agreed.  By the way, one of those losses was a game where Kremer allowed 1 unearned run in 7 innings.  

[Chavez Ravine]

A win is a win and a loss a loss. It’s good to chill in April cuz we are all going to lose a few years of life in October.

Edited April 16 by Chavez Ravine

[dystopia]

9 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

A win is a win and a loss a loss. It’s good to chill in April cuz we are all going to lose a few years of life in October.

People on here are never chill in April. This is the month for overreacting to small sample sizes. Last year in April most everyone thought we were the fourth or fifth best team in the division.