This offensive style is not sustainable

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He needs to find a happy medium.  It’s kind of like Gunnar.  He had a 19.8% walk rate and a .340 OBP his first 33 games of last year, but his OPS sucked.  Then he got more aggressive and his OPS went way up but his walk rate dropped to 6.3% and his OBP to .321 the rest of the year.   This year he’s found a happy medium at a 10.6% walk rate and his OBP and OPS are both up.  He’s got the right balance between aggression and not swinging at pitchers’ pitches.  Adley is still trying to find the right balance IMO, though he’s still been plenty productive both in his “passive” version and his “aggressive” version.  I think the in-between version will be the most productive.   And I think he’ll find that eventually.  

Someone said to me on twitter yesterday that he felt his sweet spot was 70-80 walks.

Still very patient but more aggressive at the plate than last year.

I think that’s a pretty fair assessment.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, OsBeavs said:

Where do you find this type of info? Sounds like an interesting source.

Baseball Savsnt has a game log for each game showing the exit velocity and xBA for every batted ball.  Just look at the scoreboard at the top of the page and click on the game you’re interested in.  You can roll it back to previous days.  Here’s the game log from last night.  

[RZNJ]

Seems simple to me.  His passiveness was on first pitches.  He just took too many first pitches that were hittable.  That, IMO, is the only point where he needed to be more aggressive.   

[OsBeavs]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Baseball Savsnt has a game log for each game showing the exit velocity and xBA for every batted ball.  Just look at the scoreboard at the top of the page and click on the game you’re interested in.  You can roll it back to previous days.  Here’s the game log from last night.  

Thanks, new one for the favorites list.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Someone said to me on twitter yesterday that he felt his sweet spot was 70-80 walks.

Still very patient but more aggressive at the plate than last year.

I think that’s a pretty fair assessment.

Seems in the ballpark.

Rutschman had a .354 wOBA as a rookie, .352 last year, .352 this year despite the drop in walks.   Those are all very good figures, but I think Adley can be more of a .375 guy once he finds his happy place.

[PeregrineT]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:58 AM, OriolesMagic83 said:

How about now?  Are you concerned yet?  This team looks incapable of scoring w/o a home run.  29th in walks is pathetic when the rost has many prospects who were drafted and developed by Elias and we thought we learning plate discipline and controlling the strike zone.  OBP is much more strongly correlated with run scoring than slugging.  Bill James thought a better approximation was having OBP worth twice what SLG towards scoring runs.

No, 9 days later I am not suddenly concerned in this 162 game season.  During that period we averaged 5 rpg, AKA still 4th in baseball.  I am not that fickle...

The point of hitting is not to walk.  It is not to hit home runs.  It is not to hit doubles.  It is to score runs.  There is not one way to do things in baseball(one of the great things about the sport), and if someone is doing something at a world class level keep doing it.

[OriolesMagic83]

29 minutes ago, PeregrineT said:

No, 9 days later I am not suddenly concerned in this 162 game season.  During that period we averaged 5 rpg, AKA still 4th in baseball.  I am not that fickle...

The point of hitting is not to walk.  It is not to hit home runs.  It is not to hit doubles.  It is to score runs.  There is not one way to do things in baseball(one of the great things about the sport), and if someone is doing something at a world class level keep doing it.

Well Bill James is a little bigger expert on baseball than you or I and he said getting on base is twice as important as slugging.  The Yankees are 1st in OBP and the O's are 24th.  The Yankees are also 1st in SLG and the O's are 2nd.  I'm guessing the O's recent difficulty scoring runs will continue unless their approach at the plate changes.  We've seen this type of all or nothing offense recently with the 2012-2016 O's and it doesn't really work in the playoffs where the ability to manufacture runs is important. 

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well Bill James is a little bigger expert on baseball than you or I and he said getting on base is twice as important as slugging.  The Yankees are 1st in OBP and the O's are 24th.  The Yankees are also 1st in SLG and the O's are 2nd.  I'm guessing the O's recent difficulty scoring runs will continue unless their approach at the plate changes.  We've seen this type of all or nothing offense recently with the 2012-2016 O's and it doesn't really work in the playoffs where the ability to manufacture runs is important. 

Weird way of saying it, since slugging IS getting on base. Are you (or rather, Bill James) saying OBP is twice as important as slugging? 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

Weird way of saying it, since slugging IS getting on base. Are you (or rather, Bill James) saying OBP is twice as important as slugging? 

That's what James said.  OPS should really be 2X OBP + SLG.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That's what James said.  OPS should really be 2X OBP + SLG.

Seems too much. Obviously a hypothetical .300 OBP/.500 SLG guy is less valuable than a .500 OBP/.300 SLG guy, but seems like something that’s hard to quantify like that. 

[PeregrineT]

On 5/25/2024 at 11:24 AM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well Bill James is a little bigger expert on baseball than you or I and he said getting on base is twice as important as slugging.  The Yankees are 1st in OBP and the O's are 24th.  The Yankees are also 1st in SLG and the O's are 2nd.  I'm guessing the O's recent difficulty scoring runs will continue unless their approach at the plate changes.  We've seen this type of all or nothing offense recently with the 2012-2016 O's and it doesn't really work in the playoffs where the ability to manufacture runs is important. 

Well if only Bill James opinion matters than Id suggest talking to Bill James about it and not people who arent Bill James on a forum.  Speaking of which, go ahead and show me where Bill James says hes concerned about the Orioles hitting right now and thatll be worth listening to. 

Speaking of speaking of which... if OBP is that important, and the two teams are about the same in slugging....then why have the 1st OBP yankees scored less runs per game than the 24th OBP Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

On 5/25/2024 at 11:36 AM, OriolesMagic83 said:

That's what James said.  OPS should really be 2X OBP + SLG.

We have wOBA.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

We have wOBA.

Exactly.   People have gone to a lot of trouble to properly weight the various outcomes of an at bat.

[Ohfan67]

The OBP of the team is improving and is going to improve more. The worst offenders are pretty steadily losing playing time to younger players who are already posting better numbers. If you average the OBP of the starting nine for recent games it’s significantly higher than the overall team average and will keep ticking up as the low OBP guys ride the pine. 

[Malike]

It was fun when everyone was talking about how the O's lead the league in HRs. I much prefer the style of play in last night's game, just hitting balls into the gap, productive outs, and not waiting for a HR.