FIX THE DANG BULLPEN

[G54377]

Ryan Helsley from STL got to be the guy. Mason Miller would cost too much. Helsley is under team control through 2025, so we get another year to bridge into Felix coming back. I think he can be had for one blue chip guy and several lower guys.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Ryan Helsley from STL got to be the guy. Mason Miller would cost too much. Helsley is under team control through 2025, so we get another year to bridge into Felix coming back. I think he can be had for one blue chip guy and several lower guys.

Agree that he seems like the ideal guy. Unfortunately, STL is kind of still in the game after we handed them 3 wins on a silver platter. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Only 5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central and 2 games back of the wild card. They have absolutely no reason to trade Helsley right now. Hopefully by the deadline though. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I just find it borderline bizarre that Elias was apparently ok with rolling into the season with a bullpen full of contact-oriented relievers, none of whom have overwhelming stuff. It's like he was assuming they'd stumble across another Cano or Bautista in the system or on the waiver wire. I'm sure that's not true at all, but... how can you ONLY grab Kimbrel? It just seems like such a huge, obvious oversight. 

Elias has done a lot of wonderful things, but because he is still only human, he is not above making mistakes. The bullpen construction was a big mistake. But we can overcome it if he is willing to deviate from his past history as GM and actually add meaningful talent to the team (in season) via trade.

I get that he may have his principles and one of which may be an extreme apprehension in regards to surrendering talent in trades. But at some point all successful people must learn to pivot.

We cannot continue down the same track that we have been on. Kjerstad is 25, Stowers 26, Norby will be 24 soon. We are getting no value from these guys in prime years of their career because Elias has insisted on his holding/hedging no matter what philosophy. 

IMO we are going to have to eventually pull the trigger on something significant in order to improve/fix the obvious hole on this team.

[Malike]

The Oriole bullpen combined has been worth -1.0 bWAR. Kimbrel and Cano 0.1, Webb 0.2, Danny Coulombe 0.3. Those are our leverage guys. We're 20th in the league in bWAR. They clearly need some upgrades, other than Coulombe who do you really trust at the back end in a tight game? We have no strikeout pitchers other than Kimbrel.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

Frobby can defend himself, but that was a classic red herring question to divert attention. You said the bull pen had gotten progressively worse this year. He presented facts that showed that was clearly wrong, You came back with "have you stopped beating your wife yet."

I'm not really cool or comfortable with you equating my question that I asked him to something so serious (even if said in jest)as domestic violence.

I don't have a problem with you or any other poster calling me out. But not using extreme things that are not analogous to baseball and are very serious matters.

Now, on to @Frobby's statement and citing of stats. He is right about the aggregate stats of our bp. And I was wrong in stating that the bullpen is getting progressively worse.

However, I do not believe whatsoever that we have the requisite talent in our bp to win a championship. That is what I should have said.

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you strongly believe that we can succeed in the postseason for multiple rounds with this bullpen “as is”?

I’ve been seeing this notion relentlessly over the last couple days — not from you, necessarily, as there’s another poster for whom “we can’t win a WS with X players” has basically become a catchphrase. 

But it just seems like folks are so vastly overrating the quality of “World Series Teams.” They are not perfect teams or rosters. For example, the Rangers won the World Series just last year with a trash pile of a bullpen. 
 

Brock Burke - 59.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 4.90 FIP

Will Smith - 57.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.36 FIP

José Leclerc - 57.0 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP

Josh Sborz - 52.1 IP, 5.50 ERA, 3.75 FIP

Grant Anderson - 35.2 IP, 5.05 ERA, 4.66 FIP

Jonathan Hernandez - 31.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.55 FIP

Martin Perez - 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Aroldis Chapman - 29.0 IP, 3.72 ERA, 3.36 FIP

Overall, their bullpen had a 4.77 ERA (24th in MLB) and a 4.45 FIP (22nd in MLB). They won the World Series with that group. Bradford kicked over from the rotation to lend a few innings, but it was mostly LeClerc, Sborz, and Chapman carrying them. And while we’re at it, you know whose bullpen was almost as bad as TEX’s? Arizona’s.

Anyway, I say all that just to object to the general concept that we “can’t win” with something we have now (or without something we lack now). That we can’t win with Kremer as our SP4 or Hays/Mullins/Mateo as starters or with a bullpen anchored by Kimbrel/Cano/Coulombe. Yes, we can. Other teams have done it with worse, in each of those departments.

 

Obviously, it increases our chances of winning if we get better in these areas. And I agree with you that the bullpen is the biggest area of present need, so I will join you in hoping that they make a significant addition there. I just don’t think we need to succumb to hopelessness and despair if we don’t see any major personnel changes there between now and October.

The one thing I’ll add is that I think the results in the playoffs tend to be heavily driven by your top 12ish players. Some combination of (approximately) your top 6 hitters, top 3 SPs, and top 3 RPs. I think what the 2024 team needs is enhancement of the top half of the roster — I feel like our depth is fine and more than sufficient to get us through 162, even in the bullpen. But if we’re going to make additions, I’d like to see someone who can slot into that “top 12.” Which means a high-end closer type, rather than a couple additions to the middle of the bullpen. A reliever version of the Burnes deal.

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Elias has done a lot of wonderful things, but because he is still only human, he is not above making mistakes. The bullpen construction was a big mistake. But we can overcome it if he is willing to deviate from his past history as GM and actually add meaningful talent to the team (in season) via trade.

I get that he may have his principles and one of which may be an extreme apprehension in regards to surrendering talent in trades. But at some point all successful people must learn to pivot.

We cannot continue down the same track that we have been on. Kjerstad is 25, Stowers 26, Norby will be 24 soon. We are getting no value from these guys in prime years of their career because Elias has insisted on his holding/hedging no matter what philosophy. 

IMO we are going to have to eventually pull the trigger on something significant in order to improve/fix the obvious hole on this team.

Who should’ve have gotten? A lot of the available options are either not performing or injured. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I’ve been seeing this notion relentlessly over the last couple days — not from you, necessarily, as there’s another poster for whom “we can’t win a WS with X players” has basically become a catchphrase. 

But it just seems like folks are so vastly overrating the quality of “World Series Teams.” They are not perfect teams or rosters. For example, the Rangers won the World Series just last year with a trash pile of a bullpen. 
 

Brock Burke - 59.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 4.90 FIP

Will Smith - 57.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.36 FIP

José Leclerc - 57.0 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP

Josh Sborz - 52.1 IP, 5.50 ERA, 3.75 FIP

Grant Anderson - 35.2 IP, 5.05 ERA, 4.66 FIP

Jonathan Hernandez - 31.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.55 FIP

Martin Perez - 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Aroldis Chapman - 29.0 IP, 3.72 ERA, 3.36 FIP

Overall, their bullpen had a 4.77 ERA (24th in MLB) and a 4.45 FIP (22nd in MLB). They won the World Series with that group. Bradford kicked over from the rotation to lend a few innings, but it was mostly LeClerc, Sborz, and Chapman carrying them. And while we’re at it, you know whose bullpen was almost as bad as TEX’s? Arizona’s.

Anyway, I say all that just to object to the general concept that we “can’t win” with something we have now (or without something we lack now). That we can’t win with Kremer as our SP4 or Hays/Mullins/Mateo as starters or with a bullpen anchored by Kimbrel/Cano/Coulombe. Yes, we can. Other teams have done it with worse, in each of those departments.

 

Obviously, it increases our chances of winning if we get better in these areas. And I agree with you that the bullpen is the biggest area of present need, so I will join you in hoping that they make a significant addition there. I just don’t think we need to succumb to hopelessness and despair if we don’t see any major personnel changes there between now and October.

The one thing I’ll add is that I think the results in the playoffs tend to be heavily driven by your top 12ish players. Some combination of (approximately) your top 6 hitters, top 3 SPs, and top 3 RPs. I think what the 2024 team needs is enhancement of the top half of the roster — I feel like our depth is fine and more than sufficient to get us through 162, even in the bullpen. But if we’re going to make additions, I’d like to see someone who can slot into that “top 12.” Which means a high-end closer type, rather than a couple additions to the middle of the bullpen. A reliever version of the Burnes deal.

I appreciate the statistics that you took the time to lay out from last year's WS TEX. If you believe that is the model for us to try to replicate, then all power to you. I just share a different opinion. 

I am not of the hopeless/despair perspective, after all it's only entertainment and real life has far more significant things that can produce those emotions. 

However, like you and all other Orioles fans, I would like to see the Orioles compete for and win a WS. And I don't think that we have the talent currently to get there.

Our most serious competitor for the AL pennant is the Yankees. IMO we are very close in talent in terms of both Major League rosters. We have better position player depth and a much better minor league talent pool, but they have a far superior bullpen. IMO we should try to use our advantage (position player organizational talent) in order to improve on our weakness, the bullpen, for the purpose of better evening the odds (moving them yo our favor) in a short series against them in the Fall.

[Roll Tide]

35 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Ryan Helsley from STL got to be the guy. Mason Miller would cost too much. Helsley is under team control through 2025, so we get another year to bridge into Felix coming back. I think he can be had for one blue chip guy and several lower guys.

You’re willing to trade a blue chip guy for a RP? Who are you thinking? 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Who should’ve have gotten? A lot of the available options are either not performing or injured. 

It would be easy for me to pick through all of the offseason bullpen transactions and find the ones who have worked out thus far and say I told you so. But that is not my point. My point is that we did nothing and have done that repeatedly for some time now. It is a great thing to be careful, cautious, and calculating, but at some point in action begins to cost you.

[e16bball]

32 minutes ago, Malike said:

The Oriole bullpen combined has been worth -1.0 bWAR.

I’m not sure that’s accurate.

From what I’m seeing, the positive value guys (Akin, Coulombe, Webb, Kimbrel, Cano, Tate) look to add up to about 1.2 bWAR and the negative value guys (Ramirez, Perez, Heasley) look to add up to about -1.0 bWAR.

I can’t get WAR for splits on B-R, so it’s tough to know exactly what the value of Suarez and Irvin has been in their relief stints. But they’ve had a combined 2.35 ERA in 15.1 IP, so I’m assuming that would register about 0.3 WAR to the good (comparable to Coulombe, better ERA but less innings and presumably lower leverage).

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I’m not sure that’s accurate.

From what I’m seeing, the positive value guys (Akin, Coulombe, Webb, Kimbrel, Cano, Tate) look to add up to about 1.2 bWAR and the negative value guys (Ramirez, Perez, Heasley) look to add up to about -1.0 bWAR.

I can’t get WAR for splits on B-R, so it’s tough to know exactly what the value of Suarez and Irvin has been in their relief stints. But they’ve had a combined 2.35 ERA in 15.1 IP, so I’m assuming that would register about 0.3 WAR to the good (comparable to Coulombe, better ERA but less innings and presumably lower leverage).

Collectively, BBRef has them at -1.0. If you're going to add the positive WAR guys you have to add the negative WAR guys, fair is fair. If you use fWAR they have Cano at -0.2 and the FIP is close to 4.60. Just look down the RP column for the team at number 20. Hover over BAL and you'll see every player who has pitched in relief this season on the list.

2024 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average | Baseball-Reference.com

Edited May 24 by Malike

[interloper]

Pomeranz anyone? Just released.

[Roll Tide]

Further …. The bullpen is being overused for a team with 6 starters …need more length.

[Bemorewins]

54 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Ryan Helsley from STL got to be the guy. Mason Miller would cost too much. Helsley is under team control through 2025, so we get another year to bridge into Felix coming back. I think he can be had for one blue chip guy and several lower guys.

It seems that you feel that you have a pretty good gage on the price of Mason Miller. How much do you think he will cost?