Something I love about baseball

[Frobby]

One thing I love about baseball is its constant capacity to surprise you.   I feel like in other sports, players kind of are who they are.   You don’t see basketball players score 15 points per game one year and 27 the next, dropping back to 21 the following year.  You don’t see healthy wide receivers go from 60 catches to 100, then back to 70.   Hockey players don’t score 25 goals one season and 50 the next, then 35.   

But in baseball, crazy fluctuation and guys coming out of nowhere is kind of par for the course.  Sure, there are some players who are very consistent from year to year, but it feels like team success is built largely on having several guys suddenly have career years, or players popping out of nowhere.   

For the Orioles, nobody had Mateo doing what he’s doing.  Maybe 5% of fans (if that) could have even told you that Albert Suarez was on our roster when spring training started.  By the same token, I’m sure nobody foresaw Hays and Mullins being as awful as they’ve been.  

Watching Tampa, last year a whole bunch of their hitters had career years.  This year, most of those same guys are crapping the bed.  But will it continue?  Stay tuned!

Anyway, I love the unpredictable nature of the game and can’t wait to see what will happen next.  


 

[Fiver6565]

I have long said that baseball is the ultimate reality show because you just never know what will happen, what personalities will emerge, what fresh talent will shine through. 
 

Very curious to see the show Netflix is doing with the Red Sox this year. I don’t think it will be the last of its kind because behind the scenes of a MLB team for a season is endless drama. 

[Oriole1940]

The very concept is baffling  You are supposed to hit a round ball with an oblong bat and hit it Square.  That is very hard to do  No wonder only a very small % of people on the planet can do it very good.

[allquixotic]

Randy Arozarena is another example of the surprise and unpredictability of the game. I bring him up because I was at the game last night and was marveling at his low BA on the scoreboard compared to what I remember this guy to be capable of.

In his breakout years of 2019-2020, he had pretty scary stats, albeit with limited plate appearances. High average, and OPS+ of 135 and 182 respectively. Yikes!

Since then, he's had 3 full ML years under his belt -- 2021, 2022 and 2023. He got slightly worse each year according to OPS+ (129, 123, 120) but that's not a huge backslide. 2022 was a big doubles year for him, then in 2023 he hit more home runs and fewer doubles.

Last year he was a .254 hitter with 23 home runs, 19 doubles and 3 triples. With a 120 OPS+, he's still a major league piece you would want in a lineup.

Then there's this year. In 230 PA -- about a third of a season -- he has shown a huge dropoff in hits. He's on pace to get about the same number of doubles and home runs as last year, but about 50 fewer hits. His OPS+ is half of last year's, and worse than ML average at 65.

In recent years, he's been a batter I've dreaded to see at the plate against the O's. But this year, he's showing signs of Chris Davis syndrome with the batting average falling off a cliff. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Rays are not where they'd like to be at this point in the season with a losing record.

Baseball is weird.

Edited June 1 by allquixotic

[thegardner]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One thing I love about baseball is its constant capacity to surprise you.   I feel like in other sports, players kind of are who they are.   You don’t see basketball players score 15 points per game one year and 27 the next, dropping back to 21 the following year.  You don’t see healthy wide receivers go from 60 catches to 100, then back to 70.   Hockey players don’t score 25 goals one season and 50 the next, then 35.   

But in baseball, crazy fluctuation and guys coming out of nowhere is kind of par for the course.  Sure, there are some players who are very consistent from year to year, but it feels like team success is built largely on having several guys suddenly have career years, or players popping out of nowhere.   

For the Orioles, nobody had Mateo doing what he’s doing.  Maybe 5% of fans (if that) could have even told you that Albert Suarez was on our roster when spring training started.  By the same token, I’m sure nobody foresaw Hays and Mullins being as awful as they’ve been.  

Watching Tampa, last year a whole bunch of their hitters had career years.  This year, most of those same guys are crapping the bed.  But will it continue?  Stay tuned!

Anyway, I love the unpredictable nature of the game and can’t wait to see what will happen next.  


 

So true, I also love that surprisingly often you see a play that you've never seen before.

[The B&G]

2 hours ago, allquixotic said:

Randy Arozarena is another example of the surprise and unpredictability of the game. I bring him up because I was at the game last night and was marveling at his low BA on the scoreboard compared to what I remember this guy to be capable of.

In his breakout years of 2019-2020, he had pretty scary stats, albeit with limited plate appearances. High average, and OPS+ of 135 and 182 respectively. Yikes!

Since then, he's had 3 full ML years under his belt -- 2021, 2022 and 2023. He got slightly worse each year according to OPS+ (129, 123, 120) but that's not a huge backslide. 2022 was a big doubles year for him, then in 2023 he hit more home runs and fewer doubles.

Last year he was a .254 hitter with 23 home runs, 19 doubles and 3 triples. With a 120 OPS+, he's still a major league piece you would want in a lineup.

Then there's this year. In 230 PA -- about a third of a season -- he has shown a huge dropoff in hits. He's on pace to get about the same number of doubles and home runs as last year, but about 50 fewer hits. His OPS+ is half of last year's, and worse than ML average at 65.

In recent years, he's been a batter I've dreaded to see at the plate against the O's. But this year, he's showing signs of Chris Davis syndrome with the batting average falling off a cliff. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Rays are not where they'd like to be at this point in the season with a losing record.

Baseball is weird.

Yep, haven't been following the Rays closely this year, could not believe Randy's stats when MASN put them on the screen last night. Unpredictable game, that's for sure

[allquixotic]

2 hours ago, thegardner said:

So true, I also love that surprisingly often you see a play that you've never seen before.

Like a game-ending, unassisted double play consisting of the infield fly rule plus an interference call? lol.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

One thing I love about baseball is its constant capacity to surprise you.   I feel like in other sports, players kind of are who they are.   You don’t see basketball players score 15 points per game one year and 27 the next, dropping back to 21 the following year.  You don’t see healthy wide receivers go from 60 catches to 100, then back to 70.   Hockey players don’t score 25 goals one season and 50 the next, then 35.  

Is that true? I don't think that it is. I think baseball and other sports are similar in this respect.

I picked a random NHL player... literally the first one I stumbled on, Luc Robitalle. He played 19 years in the NHL. Had a peak goal scoring season of 63, and also had seasons of 23, 15, 11, 30.

Heung-min Son is a poplar Premier League soccer player, a forward, for Tottenham Hotspur. In his nine years with the club he's scored totals including 4, 14, 12, 11, 23, and 10 goals. Wayne Rooney was a regular starter in the Premier League from 2002-2018 and had goals scored totals anywhere from six to 27, including consecutive years in his prime of 27, 11, 11, 26.

In the space of eight years Wilt Chamberlain had season average scoring marks of anywhere from 24 to 50 points per game.

In 1981 John Riggins played in 15 NFL games, rushed 194 times for 714 yards and 13 TDs. In 1983 he played in 15 games and rushed 375 times for 1347 yards and 24 touchdowns.

[owknows]

45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1981 John Riggins played in 15 NFL games, rushed 194 times for 714 yards and 13 TDs. In 1983 he played in 15 games and rushed 375 times for 1347 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Isn't this pretty much the same performance, only they gave him more carries?

[thegardner]

1 hour ago, allquixotic said:

Like a game-ending, unassisted double play consisting of the infield fly rule plus an interference call? lol.

Exactly.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is that true? I don't think that it is. I think baseball and other sports are similar in this respect.

I picked a random NHL player... literally the first one I stumbled on, Luc Robitalle. He played 19 years in the NHL. Had a peak goal scoring season of 63, and also had seasons of 23, 15, 11, 30.

Heung-min Son is a poplar Premier League soccer player, a forward, for Tottenham Hotspur. In his nine years with the club he's scored totals including 4, 14, 12, 11, 23, and 10 goals. Wayne Rooney was a regular starter in the Premier League from 2002-2018 and had goals scored totals anywhere from six to 27, including consecutive years in his prime of 27, 11, 11, 26.

In the space of eight years Wilt Chamberlain had season average scoring marks of anywhere from 24 to 50 points per game.

In 1981 John Riggins played in 15 NFL games, rushed 194 times for 714 yards and 13 TDs. In 1983 he played in 15 games and rushed 375 times for 1347 yards and 24 touchdowns.

I do understand the sentiment of it feeling like baseball is the main sport with the most performance fluctuations year to year. But this is an interesting retort. 

[Moose Milligan]

Braylon Edwards went from 61 catches and 884 yards to 80 catches and 1289 yards. 
 

Then back down to 55 catches and 873 yards. 

[rm5678]

Bradish's last 2 starts are another good example. 7 no-hit innings one day, and then can't even complete 3 innings just 6 days later.

[Spy Fox]

Yeah, I agree with those saying baseball is not really unique in this regard. 

It might be stronger in baseball than in most sports though. Baseball has more randomness than most. And more stat-collecting players than most. And a longer season than most, with a lot of attrition that gives backups chances to stick if they perform. So there are tons of opportunities for this sort of thing to happen.  

[emmett16]

Baseball is so hard.  Every single player is one prolonged slump away from the end of their career.  And it’s only an inevitable matter of time.