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Two somewhat conflicting goals


Frobby

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Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

If you had a choice, which would you take

A. Guaranteed WS win this year

B. Guaranteed playoff appearances for the next 10 years

WS this year easily. There was no caveat that we WOULDN'T make the playoffs in the next ten years, so I'll take this while we have it lol.

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1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

If you had a choice, which would you take

A. Guaranteed WS win this year

B. Guaranteed playoff appearances for the next 10 years

That's a tough won. If the WS win was guaranteed I would take it. But since a WS can never be guaranteed in real life, I'd favor running the team to maximize playoff appearances.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

1.  Win a World Series as soon as possible.

2. Year in and year out, have a team that’s capable of winning a World Series.  

I think a lot of people would say the first goal is the most important.  Win a WS ASAP, and worry about the rest later.   You never know if you’ll get another shot anyway.  

At the same time, if you want to maximize the number of tithes you win, you have to maximize the number of times you have a legit shot.   And cashing in a lot of chips in an attempt to win ASAP may jeopardize the latter goal.   

For Elias, I think it’s a delicate balance. I think we all see that the O’s have a window through 2027 or 2028 that would be hard to screw up.  But a longer window than that may require sone trade offs between maximizing chances to win it all now, and keeping the window open past Adley and Gunnar’s FA years.  
 

I think guaranteeing 1 is impossible in today’s game with the layers of playoffs.  I hear from my Yankee fan friends how if they don’t win the World Series all the other wins don’t count.  They haven’t won anything in 14 years, etc etc.  I will take their level of success year after year any time.  Like the Atlanta Braves on their run where they only won one World Series.    The Braves had GREAT starting pitching during that run and only won one.  I grew up very spoiled being born in late 1959.  From when I remember baseball for the first time in 1966 until just out of college in 1983 we were good just about every year.  Give me something in the middle of the original run in my life as compared to the last 40 years for the rest of my existence and I will be happy.

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The playoffs are such a crapshoot, I'm not sure there's any way to construct a team such that it gives you much better odds than anyone else.   The best you can do is to get there as often as possible.  So definitely #2.

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59 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

If you had a choice, which would you take

A. Guaranteed WS win this year

B. Guaranteed playoff appearances for the next 10 years

In that case, I'll take #1.  But it depends on what I have to pay the devil and as long as that doesn't come with 10 guaranteed losing seasons. 

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