Hmm… so about that qualifying offer to Santander?

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would the O's not pay? They are not paying anyone at the moment with the 25th ranked payroll in the sport.

Unless you think Rubenstien will employ the same apathetic, miserly approach as Angelos? 

They might not pay because investing 60M in ages 30-32 or 30-33, in a RF who would be declining defensively as he loses speed, and possibly declining offensively, while they have two of the best minor league players (Mayo and Kjerstad) as potential replacements at ML minimum, might not be seen as wise.   It’s not an easy decision.

[Malike]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would the O's not pay? They are not paying anyone at the moment with the 25th ranked payroll in the sport.

Unless you think Rubenstien will employ the same apathetic, miserly approach as Angelos? 

I think the Orioles are not going to pay Santander for 4 more years and I think some teams will. He'll likely get 15M+ per year.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, RZNJ said:

They might not pay because investing 60M in ages 30-32 or 30-33, in a RF who would be declining defensively as he loses speed, and possibly declining offensively, while they have two of the best minor league players (Mayo and Kjerstad) as potential replacements at ML minimum, might not be seen as wise.   It’s not an easy decision.

Agree with you that it is not an easy decision.

However, even if Santander's defense declines at some point of the contract, he can still DH. I don't see anything suggesting that his offense is decline. The opposite appears to be happening, he appears to be improving. Plus he is a switch hitter with power which is a rare commodity in MLB. I'm not apt to let those guys walk away in their prime.

Lastly, I agree that Mayo or Kjerstad may be able to give you good cheap production. But I doubt they can come in right now and outproduce him. He is tied for 4th in MLB in home runs. I don't see a rookie/first time MLBer giving that kind of production in the modern game when the jump from AAA to the Bigs is harder than ever to adjust to.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I think the Orioles are not going to pay Santander for 4 more years and I think some teams will. He'll likely get 15M+ per year.

If you don't pay him, I hope the plan is to pay somebody else who is good. IMO when championship(s) are at stake it is not the time to pinch pennies and go cheap.

[Malike]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

If you don't pay him, I hope the plan is to pay somebody else who is good. IMO when championship(s) are at stake it is not the time to pinch pennies and go cheap.

At some point, if you believe in Kjerstad and Mayo, etc, you have to play them on the ML team and give them a real shot. Santander is my favorite Oriole, but if they don't sign him for 4/60 or whatever, I won't be upset and I don't believe they can't get similar production from one of the prospects.

[Just Regular]

Santander contract slot could progress to a Kyle Gibson type on next year's roster if Kjerstad still here.

I think @dystopia had it right it is about that simple, and we'll get the view to inform the speculation soon.

[casadeozo]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We have around 60 million dollars to add to the payroll for it even to be average at 15th. 100 million to add for it to be top ten (#10).

Only one team has won a World Series in the last decade with a lower payroll (HOU in 17' beginning of their dynasty). We are not going to sustain championship level success with a miserly owner who refuses to spend. And if you won't spend now, you never will because the opportunities are most likely not going to be as good in the future. MLB changes the draft/tanking rules to prevent what Elias and the O's have done in the future in terms of stock piling elite young talent through the draft.

To me it’s simple economics and has nothing to do with “miserly ownership” or “not willing to spend”. 
If you have a player (or players) in your system that could continue to give you the same, or best case scenario significantly better production than Santander, you don’t block or trade those players with their 6 years of control, in order to dedicate a significant part of your payroll to the assumed lesser 30 year old player.

Yes we have a very low payroll and I expect them to spend with new ownership. And by spend they should concentrate on locking up 2-3 of their young players. We should be putting the best team on the field. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

At some point, if you believe in Kjerstad and Mayo, etc, you have to play them on the ML team and give them a real shot. Santander is my favorite Oriole, but if they don't sign him for 4/60 or whatever, I won't be upset and I don't believe they can't get similar production from one of the prospects.

I see retaining Santander as a path to acquiring the necesary pitching talent to help balance out the org talent equation by possibly trading one of Mayo/Basallo or Kjerstad.

We were never constructed through the draft to have enough pitching to sustain winning at the highest level. That kind of talent doesn't exist throughout the org. We have as it is zero top pitching prospects. 

With the injuries pilling up, IMO we are going to have to infuse talent into the Big League clubs pitching department for this season AND for the next couple seasons to come. IMO it would not be wise to enter into 25' with a rotation of Grayson, Kremer, Irvin, Povich, and McDermott/Johnson. Not when the offense is this good. You would in effect be wasting a year of Gunnar/Adley for the sake of being cheap. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, casadeozo said:

To me it’s simple economics and has nothing to do with “miserly ownership” or “not willing to spend”. 
If you have a player (or players) in your system that could continue to give you the same, or best case scenario significantly better production than Santander, you don’t block or trade those players with their 6 years of control, in order to dedicate a significant part of your payroll to the assumed lesser 30 year old player.

Yes we have a very low payroll and I expect them to spend with new ownership. And by spend they should concentrate on locking up 2-3 of their young players. We should be putting the best team on the field. 

We can lock up Gunnar AND Adley and stil have a ways to go to reach being a top 10 payroll. We were number 8 under Angelos in 2017. There is no world/reality/universe that exists where Angelos EVER had anywhere near the cash/capital as this new ownership. This group (depending on if you include Bloomberg or not) is easily top 5-7 in spending ability/net worth.

Why would the already rich and accomplished Rubenstein (who is from Baltimore and a life long Orioles fan) buy the team just to bleed money from it like Angelos (especially the son)?

IMO re-signing Santander gives you the opportunity to trade one of Mayo/Basallo as it makes one a redundant talent. The Yankees and Phillies (and probably Dodgers) are not going to stand pat add the deadly. IMO we are going to need to make meaningful moves and be willing to spend money both at the deadline and into the future.

A rotation of Grayson, Kremer, Irvin, Povich, and McDermott/Johnson is not going to get you very far in 25'. Nor should that be the kind of gamble the front office makes with an offense that is this good.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

At some point, if you believe in Kjerstad and Mayo, etc, you have to play them on the ML team and give them a real shot. Santander is my favorite Oriole, but if they don't sign him for 4/60 or whatever, I won't be upset and I don't believe they can't get similar production from one of the prospects.

Kjerstad has to be on an MLB team next year and Mayo deserves the same. That gets hard to do if the Orioles keep Santander, Hays and Mullins on the roster next season. I wouldn't be surprised if Kjerstad get traded, but I don't see where Kjerstad and Mayo both get traded meaning the at bats have to come from somewhere.

 I'm also a fan of Stowers, but he seems to be on the outside looking in with this logjam of players.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Kjerstad has to be on an MLB team next year and Mayo deserves the same. That gets hard to do if the Orioles keep Santander, Hays and Mullins on the roster next season. I wouldn't be surprised if Kjerstad get traded, but I don't see where Kjerstad and Mayo both get traded meaning the at bats have to come from somewhere.

 I'm also a fan of Stowers, but he seems to be on the outside looking in with this logjam of players.

I like all of our young position players. But the reality is, we do not have enough pitching now and most certainly won't in 25' (as is). That pitching talent is going to have to come from somewhere because the roster planning was designed to be heavily weighted toward the position player side of things.

Unless we use some of the excess position prospects who have real value to acquire meaningful pitching talent, where is it going to come from?

[TopGunnar]

I’ve been trying to tell you guys for 3 years now. Santander is a stud. No idea why we’re ready to ship him off. He’s a proven middle of the order bat that plays good defense. 

[Frobby]

What kind of contract would Santander command?   Here are three comps I came up with, none of which fit extremely well.

Nick Castellanos had a career 116 OPS+ through his age 29 season heading to free agency, coming off a 138 OPS+ season.  He received a 5 year, $100 mm deal from the Phillies.

Jorge Soler had a career 112 OPS+ through his age 31 season, coming off a 124 OPS+ season.  He received a 3-year, $42 mm contract from the Giants.

Teoscar Hernandez had a career 118 OPS+ through his age 30 season, coming off a 107 OPS+ season.  Rather than signing long term, he took a $23.5 mm pillow contract with the Dodgers.  Notably, he has a 132 OPS+ so far this year, and will be a free agent again this offseason, so teams looking at Santander also will be looking at Hernandez.

Santander has a career 112 OPS+ and is at 132 OPS+ right now.   Coming off three straight very good years (assuming this one holds up), I don’t see him taking a QO or a pillow contract.  He’s the same age as Castellanos was, with not quite as strong a track record.  He’s two years younger than Soler was, with a similar track record.  He’s a year younger than Hernandez was, with lesser career numbers but having a much better walk year. 

Throw all that into the blender, and I think he’s getting somewhere between 4/$64 mm and 5/$90 mm.  He’d be crazy to accept a QO and the O’s would be crazy not to offer him one.  

As to the O’s extending him, I don’t see it unless he’s willing to take less than 4/$64 mm, which I think would be foolish of him.    
 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

How is signing Anthony Santander reliving the Mark Trumbo era? There's a different regime in place with a different owner, general manager, scouts, analytics department, and on field manager. Literally nothing about the Orioles is anything when Mark Trumbo was here except for the stadium (which about to be changed/upgraded) and the uniforms (which the City Connects are even different).

Some of you (rightfully so) are so scarred by the horrible past that you refuse to believe in how amazing the opportunity that we have that is in front of us.

This is not the same old O's of yesteryear! We could be in the beginning of a dynasty. That was never a possibility or even an attainable goal under the previous "Trumbo era" regime.

Huh? I was specifically responding to your suggestion that he be given a multiyear extension when he hits free agency this offseason. The current composition of the FO is completely irrelevant.

As to how the 2 things are connected, Mark Trumbo was a slow, low average, low OBP slug-only player with little to no defensive value, while Anthony Santander is a slow, low average, low OBP slug-only player with little to no defensive value. Trumbo was just past his 31st birthday when he re-signed here for 3 years and promptly turned into a pumpkin, while Santander will be just past his 30th birthday when he signs his next contract. 

In other words, it's probably a bad idea to extend Santander with a deal similar to Trumbo's, which is what he will command this offseason barring a major dropoff in the second half. That is what I was talking about with my "reliving the Trumbo era" remark.

2 hours ago, Malike said:

I'm not saying Santander should get a multi-year deal, but they should offer a QO and if he takes it, why burn two roster spots on 2 platoon players when you have 1 guy who can hit from both sides.

I was replying to people proposing a multiyear extension, but I am in favor of both issuing the QO to Santander (regardless of his decision) and exercising the option on O'Hearn, but I would not release O'Hearn specifically to make room for Santander at over twice the cost when we have much greater needs for next year than 1B/COF/DH.

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Starling Marte got 4/78 last offseason at 30. Santander is a SH and a much better defender. Does he get more than that?  

Marte signed his current deal after the 2021 season, and at the time, he was both an everyday CF and a vastly better defender than Santander is now, so I don't really think it's a good comp.

Jeimer Candelario's 3 year, $45 million deal with the Reds from last offseason is a much better comp, IMO (although I think Santander will top it if he doesn't fall off hard in the second half).

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Agree with you that it is not an easy decision.

However, even if Santander's defense declines at some point of the contract, he can still DH. I don't see anything suggesting that his offense is decline. The opposite appears to be happening, he appears to be improving. Plus he is a switch hitter with power which is a rare commodity in MLB. I'm not apt to let those guys walk away in their prime.

Lastly, I agree that Mayo or Kjerstad may be able to give you good cheap production. But I doubt they can come in right now and outproduce him. He is tied for 4th in MLB in home runs. I don't see a rookie/first time MLBer giving that kind of production in the modern game when the jump from AAA to the Bigs is harder than ever to adjust to.

If you want to treat Santander as the player he is now, be my guest.  Last year he had a .840 OPS before the AS break and a .740 OPS after the AS break.  He had a .678 OPS in September.   In May 2023 he had an OPS over 1.000.   In other words, he’s a good player who sometimes looks great but is generally just a good player.