Skubal trade..Kjerstad, Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield?

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Everything that you say is well thought out/researched and logical.

My only contention would be to point 5. That’s not all we lose. We lose out on the opportunity to win a championship this season. That’s a big deal. Because we may not have Burnes next season and if Fedde were to turn back into a pumpkin our rotation will be in very bad shape this year.

Lastly, I don’t think all 3 of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo are necessary for us to win/seriously compete for a title. But I do believe having better pitching talent than we currently have is.

You’re contention that we have absolutely no chance of winning a championship with Burnes and GRod as #1 and #2 and a not so great #3 with a potentially reinforced bullpen seem overly dramatic.

[sportsfan8703]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not going to change your mind but ……

1.  Fedde threw 180 innings in Korea last year

2.  His previous walk rate in MLB was close to 4.  This year it’s 2.4.

3.  His splits show amazing consistency from month to month

4.  We have 106 innings of real data that shows this IS Fedde.

5. If I’m wrong we still won’t lose Basallo, Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad to find out.

6. If I’m right we got one of the best starters in baseball (2.4 FWAR to 2.5 for Burnes) for a reasonable price.

7.  That’s Mike Elias’ type of risk.

All the talk about Fedde, it’s deserved, and nobody talks about why the change?  From looking at his baseball savant page, he ditched the curveball for a sweeper. 

His Baseball Savant page lists Lugo and Nola as similar pitchers. 

I like Fedde. Especially considering we won’t have to deal one of the big 3.  He’s my 2nd favorite option behind Skubal, but ahead of Scherzer. 

[Allan Bryant]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

All the talk about Fedde, it’s deserved, and nobody talks about why the change?  From looking at his baseball savant page, he ditched the curveball for a sweeper. 

His Baseball Savant page lists Lugo and Nola as similar pitchers. 

I like Fedde. Especially considering we won’t have to deal one of the big 3.  He’s my 2nd favorite option behind Skubal, but ahead of Scherzer. 

The more I read about Fedde, the more I like him . The question is….. what would it take to get him ?

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

The more I read about Fedde, the more I like him . The question is….. what would it take to get him ?

Probably the two prospects listed in this title. McDermott and EBJ. 

Skubal would probably take Holliday + McDermott

[dzorange]

Orioles are going to have to find a replacement for Burnes somehow next season. I think if they can get a pitcher who is under control for an extra year or more, the O's need to be aggressive in doing so. I think this is a fair trade.

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Probably the two prospects listed in this title. McDermott and EBJ. 

Skubal would probably take Holliday + McDermott

The first deal may be realistic 

The second deal , while more preferred, is very unlikely and doubtful .  We may have do some serious money for FA starters coming offseason 

[Safelykept]

50 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

The first deal may be realistic 

The second deal , while more preferred, is very unlikely and doubtful .  We may have do some serious money for FA starters coming offseason 

Yes FAs, still need to do something at the deadline though. I dont think there is enough prospect capitol in the world to outrun how fast pitchers get injured. And the way Kremer looked last night what if hes banged up again

[Allan Bryant]

3 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Yes FAs, still need to do something at the deadline though. I dont think there is enough prospect capitol in the world to outrun how fast pitchers get injured. And the way Kremer looked last night what if hes banged up again

Then Elias might have get the ball rolling soon and deal with those issues 

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

The first deal may be realistic 

The second deal , while more preferred, is very unlikely and doubtful .  We may have do some serious money for FA starters coming offseason 

Nothing personal, but this thinking is how people are going to be really disappointed here come deadline time.  If we want Skubal, we're going to have to trade Holliday.  

A patient approach works in the offseason because there are FA options to leverage teams in trades, and because if all else fails you can say "wait till the deadline."  Well the deadline is here.  Bradish and Means got hurt.  It sucks having to give up one of the big 3, but trading Holliday is what replaces losing Bradish.  

Why play 162 games and have to go into the playoffs with Suarez and Kremer starting Games 3 and 4.  I like Suarez as the 4th SP, and with bullpen support we could win a sprint with him twice in the playoffs.  

[oriolediehard]

6 hours ago, dzorange said:

Orioles are going to have to find a replacement for Burnes somehow next season. I think if they can get a pitcher who is under control for an extra year or more, the O's need to be aggressive in doing so. I think this is a fair trade.

We should pay him, that will solve the problem!!!!

[Allan Bryant]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nothing personal, but this thinking is how people are going to be really disappointed here come deadline time.  If we want Skubal, we're going to have to trade Holliday.  

A patient approach works in the offseason because there are FA options to leverage teams in trades, and because if all else fails you can say "wait till the deadline."  Well the deadline is here.  Bradish and Means got hurt.  It sucks having to give up one of the big 3, but trading Holliday is what replaces losing Bradish.  

Why play 162 games and have to go into the playoffs with Suarez and Kremer starting Games 3 and 4.  I like Suarez as the 4th SP, and with bullpen support we could win a sprint with him twice in the playoffs.  

While I agree with most of your comments, I’m not sure even Holiday could get Tigers to talk about Skubal . I think Tigers consider Skubal untouchable ( my opinion) . That’s why I don’t see Orioles getting him at this deadline . Maybe in the future when he becomes a FA . 
In the meantime , let’s search for that # 3 starter candidate . Fedde ? Scherzer ?  Tailon ?  Plus several others. Not to mention relievers candidates.

[sportsfan8703]

14 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

While I agree with most of your comments, I’m not sure even Holiday could get Tigers to talk about Skubal . I think Tigers consider Skubal untouchable ( my opinion) . That’s why I don’t see Orioles getting him at this deadline . Maybe in the future when he becomes a FA . 
In the meantime , let’s search for that # 3 starter candidate . Fedde ? Scherzer ?  Tailon ?  Plus several others. Not to mention relievers candidates.

Exactly. It takes two to make a deal and we don’t even know if Skubal is available. Plus, 75% of the league could talk themselves into buying.

Then if the Tigers want to make a deal then what would they want?  A 5-1 type deal to minimize risk?  

Fedde, Kikuchi, and Scherzer, are probably more realistic than Skubal. Obviously. Do we pay for the name recognition for Scherzer?  

Edited July 11 by sportsfan8703

[Bemorewins]

17 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

While I agree with most of your comments, I’m not sure even Holiday could get Tigers to talk about Skubal . I think Tigers consider Skubal untouchable ( my opinion) . That’s why I don’t see Orioles getting him at this deadline . Maybe in the future when he becomes a FA . 
In the meantime , let’s search for that # 3 starter candidate . Fedde ? Scherzer ?  Tailon ?  Plus several others. Not to mention relievers candidates.

I struggle with that logic from a DET perspective.

They are not good competitive this season. They can’t hit. What is likely to change next year for them? 

Their best position player prospects (while good) are at A ball currently.

Skubal only had 2 seasons after this of team control. And for every season that you wait it increases the likelihood of injury.

Furthermore, this is probably Skubal’s peak value. The longer they wait, the lesser the value that Skubal will have. Thus decreasing the chances that they can get a highest rated prospect like Holliday.

Rarely are guys rated as highly as Holliday traded because the top ranked prospects are usually on non-contending teams.

I would say if DET doesn’t trade Skubal now (before deadline) it’s unlikely that they would ever do better in return that Jackson Holliday now.

[eddie83]

 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I struggle with that logic from a DET perspective.

They are not good competitive this season. They can’t hit. What is likely to change next year for them? 

Their best position player prospects (while good) are at A ball currently.

Skubal only had 2 seasons after this of team control. And for every season that you wait it increases the likelihood of injury.

Furthermore, this is probably Skubal’s peak value. The longer they wait, the lesser the value that Skubal will have. Thus decreasing the chances that they can get a highest rated prospect like Holliday.

Rarely are guys rated as highly as Holliday traded because the top ranked prospects are usually on non-contending teams.

I would say if DET doesn’t trade Skubal now (before deadline) it’s unlikely that they would ever do better in return that Jackson Holliday now.

They can look at FA bat upgrades in the winter.