Outfield PA the rest of the way

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Malike said:

Are you saying expected stats are a good predictor of future success? It's a simple yes or no question.

they aren’t? Isn’t that why they are called “expected”?
I mean, like, not guaranteed but likely?

[DEOriolesfan]

Is it fair to say that Hays is basically the new Ryan McKenna? Starts against the lefties and is a late inning defensive replacement.

Kjerstad needs regular AB's. He's much more competitive at the plate than Cowser. Santander should be the everyday RF/DH. Mullins I'm fine hitting 8th and playing good defense in CF.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

they aren’t? Isn’t that why they are called “expected”?
I mean, like, not guaranteed but likely?

This is good reading.

According to Tom Tango, MLB Senior Database Architect of Stats, expected stats were designed to only be descriptive. If the goal was to be predictive, they would have been designed differently. Expected stats tell you what the likely outcome should have been. They are not predictive so use them accordingly.

Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that is still very high means it’s not just because of a few good weeks. 

On our last home stand, his BaBiP was .071z

There’s a reason I track various stats every 27 games.   It’s for discussions like this.   Here’s Cowser:

xwOBA: .390 through 27, .365 through 54, .362 through 81, .351 through 90.   

wOBA: .439, .337, .332, .320.

I can estimate, knowing Cowser’s PA in each of these periods, that since Game 27, Cowser has an xwOBA of about .335 and a wOBA of about .272.   

Doing the same exercise with Hays, since Game 27 he has an xwOBA of about .340 and a wOBA of .409.   

Even if you believe that the difference between wOBA and xwOBA is entirely driven by luck (I don’t), Hays has the slightly better xwOBA over the last 2+ months.   If you believe that none of the difference between wOBA and xwOBA relates to luck (I don’t believe that, either), then Hays has absolutely demolished Cowser over the last 2+ months.  My view is, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two extreme views and Hays has hit significantly better than Cowser for 2+ months. 

But this isn’t just about Hays, it’s also about Kjerstad and Mullins.  

Finally, I just want to repeat that in addition to getting poor overall results for 2+ months, Cowser has been particularly abysmal with RISP, high leverage, etc., as detailed in my prior post.  And you can see that when he’s at the plate in those situations, he hasn’t figured out how to aporoach things.  

For me, Cowser’s time should be cut back unless and until he starts performing better.  
 

[LGOrioles]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s a reason I track various stats every 27 games.   It’s for discussions like this.   Here’s Cowser:

xwOBA: .390 through 27, .365 through 54, .362 through 81, .351 through 90.   

wOBA: .439, .337, .332, .320.

I can estimate, knowing Cowser’s PA in each of these periods, that since Game 27, Cowser has an xwOBA of about .335 and a wOBA of about .272.   

Doing the same exercise with Hays, since Game 27 he has an xwOBA of about .340 and a wOBA of .409.   

Even if you believe that the difference between wOBA and xwOBA is entirely driven by luck (I don’t), Hays has the slightly better xwOBA over the last 2+ months.   If you believe that none of the difference between wOBA and xwOBA relates to luck (I don’t believe that, either), then Hays has absolutely demolished Cowser over the last 2+ months.  My view is, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two extreme views and Hays has hit significantly better than Cowser for 2+ months. 

But this isn’t just about Hays, it’s also about Kjerstad and Mullins.  

Finally, I just want to repeat that in addition to getting poor overall results for 2+ months, Cowser has been particularly abysmal with RISP, high leverage, etc., as detailed in my prior post.  And you can see that when he’s at the plate in those situations, he hasn’t figured out how to aporoach things.  

For me, Cowser’s time should be cut back unless and until he starts performing better.  
 

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santander assuming they are all healthy). 

So much has been made about Cowser’s offense (for good reason) that it seems like the fact that he’s been the best defensive player on the team on a per game basis gets lost. With his defense and base running value, he doesn’t even have to be a great hitter to be valuable, like Kjerstad. His floor is closer to Mullins, yet it seems like he’s judged very differently. Put another way, if Mullins had Cowser’s overall offensive line right now, with his exit velo’s and quality of contact, nobody would be calling for him to lose playing time.

It just seems odd that a rookie that has been so good defensively and has so many good offensive qualities (average exit velocity, chase rate, barrel %) is getting so much heat right now. He definitely does need to be better with RISP and in high leverage situations, and shouldn’t get an unlimited leash, but he’s not going to get better unless he keeps getting chances to work things out. And if he does work things out (as we saw in April) or even can replicate his season line to date the rest of the way, he’s likely the most valuable OF’er on the team. 

[ChipTait]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get any game that OHearn has an OFer glove unless injuries are an issue.

I prefer he has to borrow a glove if he is forced into playing defense at all.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santander assuming they are all healthy). 

So much has been made about Cowser’s offense (for good reason) that it seems like the fact that he’s been the best defensive player on the team on a per game basis gets lost. With his defense and base running value, he doesn’t even have to be a great hitter to be valuable, like Kjerstad. His floor is closer to Mullins, yet it seems like he’s judged very differently. Put another way, if Mullins had Cowser’s overall offensive line right now, with his exit velo’s and quality of contact, nobody would be calling for him to lose playing time.

It just seems odd that a rookie that has been so good defensively and has so many good offensive qualities (average exit velocity, chase rate, barrel %) is getting so much heat right now. He definitely does need to be better with RISP and in high leverage situations, and shouldn’t get an unlimited leash, but he’s not going to get better unless he keeps getting chances to work things out. And if he does work things out (as we saw in April) or even can replicate his season line to date the rest of the way, he’s likely the most valuable OF’er on the team. 

You make a lot of legitimate points here.  I’d say these are the reasons I’m not advocating benching Cowser, but I still think his time should be reduced for now until he’s hitting better.  Hays saw his time reduced when he was hitting poorly, and so did Mullins.  Hays hasn’t and won’t be returned to his old status quo, while Mullins is closer to his old status quo.

[Rbiggs2525]

I say send Cowser down for Mayo. This will give Cowser regular AB’s until you forget out what you are going to do at the deadline. I am in no way down on Cowser but think he could use a small reset.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santander assuming they are all healthy). 

So much has been made about Cowser’s offense (for good reason) that it seems like the fact that he’s been the best defensive player on the team on a per game basis gets lost. With his defense and base running value, he doesn’t even have to be a great hitter to be valuable, like Kjerstad. His floor is closer to Mullins, yet it seems like he’s judged very differently. Put another way, if Mullins had Cowser’s overall offensive line right now, with his exit velo’s and quality of contact, nobody would be calling for him to lose playing time.

It just seems odd that a rookie that has been so good defensively and has so many good offensive qualities (average exit velocity, chase rate, barrel %) is getting so much heat right now. He definitely does need to be better with RISP and in high leverage situations, and shouldn’t get an unlimited leash, but he’s not going to get better unless he keeps getting chances to work things out. And if he does work things out (as we saw in April) or even can replicate his season line to date the rest of the way, he’s likely the most valuable OF’er on the team. 

Frobby in particular is a big Hays fan, so I think he’s very biased.  Hays is hitting better and that’s great but just because he’s hitting better, doesn’t mean you play him more. Part of the reason he’s been successful is lesser playing time imo. Same with Mateo early in the season. He was playing occasionally, which was great for him. Now that he’s everyday, he’s exposed and back to not hitting. 

I don’t get the Cowser stuff either.  People talk about the importance of defense but then they want to bench our best defensive player. Cowser also brings a lot of speed and good base running as well.

But ultimately the funniest part to me is how reliant this board is on statcast stuff and how many on here quote it but yet choose to ignore it w/r/t Cowser.

Now, I agree that actual results would be nice and the SSS of RISP/clutch stats are really pathetic on his part but it’s also a SSS and not sure we should be putting that much weight into it.

For me, Cowser would start vs every righty and somewhere between 25-50% of all lefties. If we can rid ourselves of little bit of this vet depth we have on the team, Kjerstad would be the same. The problem with Kjerstad right now is that the defense isn’t there (at least as well as Cowser) and while I would like his bat in his lineup more, he’s impacted by the DH/1B guys more than Cowser is.

 

Edited July 9 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I say send Cowser down for Mayo. This will give Cowser regular AB’s until you forget out what you are going to do at the deadline. I am in no way down on Cowser but think he could use a small reset.

I don’t see why Cowser needs a reset. 
 

This year we keep hearing about how the gap between AAA and the majors is the biggest it’s ever been w/r/t pitching and yet people have the solution of saying, let’s send down guys so they can learn to hitting ML pitching better. 
 

The solution here is simple. Trading Urias can not be difficult. He makes very little money, has been hitting since mid April, plays Ok defense in a few spots and has service time.

You may not get a ton for him but as bad as hitting is around baseball, he is an easy guy to trade.

You trade him, bring up Mayo and send Mateo to the role that suits him the best.

 

[LGOrioles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You make a lot of legitimate points here.  I’d say these are the reasons I’m not advocating benching Cowser, but I still think his time should be reduced for now until he’s hitting better.  Hays saw his time reduced when he was hitting poorly, and so did Mullins.  Hays hasn’t and won’t be returned to his old status quo, while Mullins is closer to his old status quo.

I agree and it’s not like he’s beyond criticism.

It’s tough that he can’t really platoon more because Mullins is so bad against LHP’s, so his days off seem to be coming against RHP’s lately and he’s been playing against most LHP’s. Cowser’s line against LHP’s is fine overall but he’s striking out 37% of the time and has had some ugly swings. 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I agree and it’s not like he’s beyond criticism.

It’s tough that he can’t really platoon more because Mullins is so bad against LHP’s, so his days off seem to be coming against RHP’s lately and he’s been playing against most LHP’s. Cowser’s line against LHP’s is fine overall but he’s striking out 37% of the time and has had some ugly swings. 

Yea, he does have 4 homers and a 400 slugging vs lefties. The OBP is sub 300 but it’s not like he’s a complete waste vs lefties, especially when you factor in todays hitting environment.

Edited July 9 by Sports Guy

[PeteCanes]

I’d like to see Kjerstad most every day.  He just looks like a masher.  Gimme them regular PAs.

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

they aren’t? Isn’t that why they are called “expected”?
I mean, like, not guaranteed but likely?

They aren’t predictive in that, just because this is what you should have done as of today, it doesn’t mean this is what you will do long term.

That said, and as I mentioned earlier, guys with a lot of red on that statcast page tend to be players that will produce. There is a reason a team like the Os uses statcast data in player evaluations. 

[LGOrioles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yea, he does have 4 homers and a 400 slugging vs lefties. The OBP is sub 300 but it’s not like he’s a complete waste vs lefties, especially when you factor in todays hitting environment.

Agree. I just think if he were to get a day off/lose some playing time, it would be ideal if the Orioles had a RHH CF or Mullins hit LHP’s better, so those days off could come against LHP’s.

I’m fine with him against LHP’s but it seems a little backwards to take away a somewhat struggling LHH’s AB’s against RHP’s, but to keep throwing him out there against LHP’s.