Trading for Tarik Skubal

[fansince71]

Fansided has us sending JH, McDermott  and Fabian.

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-tarik-skubal-trade-packages-tigers-can-t-turn-down-red-sox-dodgers-orioles

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

I see no harm in assuming the ask will be absurd and that Mike will balk. I always hedge toward protecting the psyche. Lol. 

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

So that means they don’t want to trade him according to this guy.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

These Tigers fans are absolutely nuts. They think they  are trading 1999 Pedro.

[bpilktree67]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree that the M’s overpaid for Bedard, especially with 20/20 hindsight.  Let’s just say they weren’t the only team in the bidding, and a lot of teams were offering a lot.  But there will be a lot of teams in on Skubal, too, and IMO 2.3 seasons of Skubal > 2.0 seasons of Bedard.  I think it will cost one of our top 3 and several other quality pieces.  Two of our top three?  I wouldn’t do it.  

Yeah but now you have to figure in injuries with pitchers especially someone who has arm issues.  Bedard had thrown 183 and 196 innings the previous 2 years.  Skubal threw 196 innings combined the last two seasons coming into this year.  If he is gonna help us down the stretch and playoffs he is going to have to pitch 200+in  one season.  That is a heavy workload increase on any pitcher and he isn't a big guy either so a decent chance that increase is harder on him then someone who is bigger like Grod.  

[gamiliel]

23 minutes ago, fansince71 said:

Fansided has us sending JH, McDermott  and Fabian.

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-tarik-skubal-trade-packages-tigers-can-t-turn-down-red-sox-dodgers-orioles

That is realistic, at least. 

[LookinUp]

I haven't read all 25 pages (just the last 5-6), but I'm a little surprised I don't see us taking Javier Baez and part of his contract back in these theoretical deals. 

This seems like a good opportunity to use money to get more favorable terms in a trade. Maybe we have an owner that would actually do that? I don't know.

[baltfan]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly, if reports are true, the Os didn’t even take the best deal (in hindsight)

Yep, Reds deal was better.  Would have loved to have had Votto.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Yeah but now you have to figure in injuries with pitchers especially someone who has arm issues.  Bedard had thrown 183 and 196 innings the previous 2 years.  Skubal threw 196 innings combined the last two seasons coming into this year.  If he is gonna help us down the stretch and playoffs he is going to have to pitch 200+in  one season.  That is a heavy workload increase on any pitcher and he isn't a big guy either so a decent chance that increase is harder on him then someone who is bigger like Grod.  

Is that pure speculation on your part?

I've never seen evidence that shows slight pitchers are more injury prone.

Someone tell Tyler Wells that he's 6'8", 260 and shouldn't be getting hurt so often.

Edited July 18 by Can_of_corn

[banks703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Any deal that is led by Kjerstad is a deal we should jump on….but we aren’t getting him for a deal led by HK and I have yet to see any Tigers fan who would be ok with that.  Most I see think HK should be the second guy.

Agree with this.. the recency bias on this board is painful to navigate sometimes. Until proven otherwise, CC looks like the better overall major league player if compared to HK, who, to be clear, I think will be a fine major league hitter.. he's just not a long-term outfield option for me at the ML level. CC has struggled at the plate, no doubt but he's got 25 homer potential, GG defense, great baserunning, and advanced plate discipline for a hitter still in his rookie status. I am extremely confident he will figure it out. Is he going to be a .300 hitter? Maybe not but he's certainly not a .220 hitter and the O's don't have anyone in the system at the higher levels who can take over in Center full-time/long-term should something happen with Ced. 

If a deal starting with HK is fair in the eyes of the Tigers (see what I did there) then I'd feel comfortable tapping into the top 10, 15, 30 to get something done. It would pain me to give up Seth Johnson but I'd offer something like HK, Norby, SJ and Horvath. I'd prefer to unload Max Wagner over Horvath but they would prefer Horvath who I think has big potential. The average isn't there yet for him but the OBP and SLG look real strong for a player in his second year of pro ball. 

Kjerstad (2023 # 6/2024 #4)

Norby (2023 # 9/2024 #5)

Seth Johnson (2023 #9/2024 #9)

Mac Horvath (2023 #10)

It would essentially deplete the top 10 but if this would work without giving up the top 3 guys, I would do it. Some of them may be somewhat interchangeable.

 

[Just Regular]

I believe a simple Marcel projection formula weights 50%, 33.3% and 16.7% by year, and thinking about a big deal for a 3 October ace, it seems ballpark close for how you assess value.

On July 30th, there will never be a shorter window, a mere 2 months, in which Skubal or Crochet need to remain healthy to provide a lot of the value you hope to get.

Any pitcher who does what they do - October 2025 or October 2026 is roulette.

Skubal moving or not is an interesting yardstick how liquid all the hedge fund GM's are making the talent market.    Skubal is in top form in 2024, does he get to chase a dogpile?     Tarik Skubal still on the Tigers after the deadline just slowly goes into a bubble conserving energy for 2025.

[25 Nuggets]

6 minutes ago, gamiliel said:

That is realistic, at least. 

There's another one linked to that site that has Basallo, Stowers, Norby, and Seth Johnson.

[Can_of_corn]

If we look at Cowser by the month we see.

2023-

July 372 OPS

August 729 OPS

2024-

March/April 1.004 OPS

May 580 OPS

June 679 OPS

July 443 OPS

 

That's worrisome.  That could easily be a guy that isn't going to hit long term in the majors that had a major burner.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I haven't read all 25 pages (just the last 5-6), but I'm a little surprised I don't see us taking Javier Baez and part of his contract back in these theoretical deals. 

This seems like a good opportunity to use money to get more favorable terms in a trade. Maybe we have an owner that would actually do that? I don't know.

It was mentioned 

[bpilktree67]

24 minutes ago, fansince71 said:

Fansided has us sending JH, McDermott  and Fabian.

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-tarik-skubal-trade-packages-tigers-can-t-turn-down-red-sox-dodgers-orioles

The comment about McDermott could be a star with the Tigers pitching development  is a weird statement to me.   When have the Tigers been this great organization that turns out top pitching?  They did well with Skubal but that is it.  They drafted Casey Mize  1st overall in 2018  who has been a bust. They drafted Alex Faedo in 1st round 16th in 2017 who has not done much. They drafted Matt Manning  first round 9th overall in 2016 who has been a bust.    They drafted Beau Burrows 1st round 22nd  in 2015 who never made the majors.  They do have some guys coming up now but besides Jobe the rest have fizzled out some in upper minors like they other guys i mentioned.   As far as major league success they haven't developed much at all for a team that has continually drafted pitchers in the 1st round.