Dumb Question but I'll ask it anyway...

[DocJJ]

I keep reading articles that refer to the "Deep" and "Talented" Orioles Farm system.   But is it really that deep and talented?   

Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo are no doubt stud prospects.  I won't include Cowser or Kjerstad as I consider them graduated on to the MLB.

Conor Norby and Kyle Stowers show some promise, but don't appear to be superstars in the making.

Then there are a few wait-and-see guys like Etzel, Estrada, Beavers and Bradfield, although Beavers has really struggled lately.  And there are a few low minors pitchers that show some promise.

And we don't yet know who will be traded away for pitching help near the deadline....

 

I think our top 3 are as good or better than any in baseball... but I don't really see our system as all that deep?  I imagine most teams have 4-5 stud guys....

 

[Frobby]

Our system is certainly thinner with recent graduations.  However, I doubt any team matches our top 3, and the depth certainly is still above average.  Take a look around.  

[UMDTerrapins]

Pre-season system rankings will have us drop a good deal, but we’ll still have a strong system, imo. The days of having 6 top 100 prospects are behind us. We need to do a better job developing prospects to keep our rep. Beavers, Fabian, Johnson, Baumler…..would have liked to see a few of those kinds of guys make a jump. Still a lot of season left though. 

[Frobby]

On the depth issue, Fangraphs lists every player in every org they rate at 35+ or higher.  The O’s have 45 such prospects.  Only 6 teams have more, with 49 being the top.  There are numerous teams in the 20’s and low 30’s.  So by their reckoning, we are very deep.  Will all those guys be impact players?  Of course not.  But we have more guys with a shot at a major league career than most teams, in addition to great quality at the top.  

Edited July 17 by Frobby

[Rbiggs2525]

We are top heavy at the moment but very hopeful for strong second half’s from a lot of prospects. Our 4-30 prospects all have a chance to be big league contributors one day. It has been a little underwhelming but I still believe in the process. Our DSL teams are the best I ever remember and the investment seems to be paying off. People get upset about big league payroll but we’ve been shelling out 20-25 million per season In draft and international signing.

[sportsfan8703]

I think the depth is an issue here because we really don’t get the top top Latin players each year. We’re doing better down there, but teams like the Yankees, and Dodgers, consistently get top 3-5 classes. We’re just getting up to average-ish range. 

The draft is only 50% of the amateur talent grab. Maybe even only 40% considering it’s only 20 rounds now. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd say it's a bit top heavy right now.  

Also hard to pick in the draft when you're picking towards the end of the first round, but that's okay.  I have a feeling that later this year and next year we'll see some dividends from the South American scouting and signings.  Basallo is the first proof of that.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think the depth is an issue here because we really don’t get the top top Latin players each year. We’re doing better down there, but teams like the Yankees, and Dodgers, consistently get top 3-5 classes. We’re just getting up to average-ish range. 

The draft is only 50% of the amateur talent grab. Maybe even only 40% considering it’s only 20 rounds now. 

Depends what you mean by “talent.”   There’s a lot of chaff in any Latin American program.   Only about 30% of major leaguers are from Latin America, and the full season minor league clubs are slightly more than that.  A lot of DSL/FCL guys never make it to a full season club.  

[sportsfan8703]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends what you mean by “talent.”   There’s a lot of chaff in any Latin American program.   Only about 30% of major leaguers are from Latin America, and the full season minor league clubs are slightly more than that.  A lot of DSL/FCL guys never make it to a full season club.  

Koby Perez is doing a great job down there for sure, but we haven’t brought in a top 10-15 ranked player yet. The teams with the deep farm systems like the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres, are yearly bringing in those guys. 

It’s the last piece to the talent grab puzzle. 

[Just Regular]

It is all relative and probably zero of us follow the other clubs low minors like we do the Orioles guys here.

BP talking about its midseason top 50 today talked about the hollowing out effect of MLB downsizing the affiliated minors.

It is still a fun parlor game the Dodgers like when pundits talk about how their 29th best prospect would be in most teams top 10.    Elias is trying to get the Orioles there too.

I thought it was interesting the quote Blood gave about the one drafted pitcher where some of the info driving the pick was stuff the kid did in our pitching lab, out of the other 29 clubs' view.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Koby Perez is doing a great job down there for sure, but we haven’t brought in a top 10-15 ranked player yet. The teams with the deep farm systems like the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres, are yearly bringing in those guys. 

It’s the last piece to the talent grab puzzle. 

It has been spread the wealth but Basallo as an early hit is a vivid example how if your outlay is ~$6M a year in bonuses for Latin America's best 16 year olds, you only need one big hit a decade to pay for everybody.

[EdwinRip]

They did seem to draft more low profile high school players than in previous drafts.  I wonder if that will be a strategy to get more younger kids in the system similar to the international signings.

[btdart20]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

On the depth issue, Fangraphs lists every player in every org they rate at 35+ or higher.  The O’s have 45 such prospects.  Only 6 teams have more, with 49 being the top.  There are numerous teams in the 20’s and low 30’s.  So by their reckoning, we are very deep.  Will all those guys be impact players?  Of course not.  But we have more guys with a shot at a major league career than most teams, in addition to great quality at the top.  

This is the big value-add that FG provides IMO.  It's a good view of the general landscape.

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

It is still a fun parlor game the Dodgers like when pundits talk about how their 29th best prospect would be in most teams top 10.    Elias is trying to get the Orioles there too.

That is a quasi-atated goal (increasing competition in the org).  The scales of a Blind SigBot at various trade deadlines will be interesting to watch.

[wildcard]

I would refer you to Tony's Power Rankings which he just update on July 8th.   

Click on the chart to go to his site.

McDermott leads the International League in strike outs at the break with 128 and he is 2nd in starts.  Tony has him 5th one behind Povich.

I have read that Baumeister has an electric arm.  Drafted in the 2nd round  in 2023.

Etzel is moving up fast. 

Johnson is being babied after TJ surgery as the O's rarely let him pitch more than 4 innings per outing though his stats suggest his could go deeper.   He was a first round draft choice by the Rays who know something about pitching.

Young has made It to AAA and is improving.  Weston doing similar at AA.

When Fabian is #25 you have a pretty deep list.

 

Edited July 17 by wildcard

[ScGO's]

Since Elias started putting attention on the International market in 2019, he was clear that it would take a while. Some of Elias' early investments are either in Delmarva or Aberdeen, with Basallo and Becosme making it to AA. I think the Orioles International pipeline will be caught up in about 3 more years, and at that time we'll see a nice added line of ammunition in the middle of our Dynasty run