O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[emmett16]

Why has Rogers, who has had more than 1k per 1IP over his career, only had 85 K in 105.1 IP this year?  Seems like a significant drop-off.  Are the Marlins FO notorious for not being able to develop pitchers?  Bad year?  Drop in stuff?  His statcast page is pretty gnarly. He was filthy in 2021, Solid in 2022, Meh in 2022, and OK in 2023.  I wonder what they see. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I guess if you're confident he's healthy and can be "fixed" then you roll the dice. It's pretty clear Norby and Stowers were the red headed stepchildren insofar as O's prospects go. 

So, we'll see. At least he's controllable through 2026. 

I'm sure Rogers is super pumped.

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

This was an insane overpay. On par with the Kikuchi trade. What is Elias thinking? 

Kikuchi is a rental, Rogers has two and a half years of control. Not at all similar.

[1fingerwillie]

10 minutes ago, fansince71 said:

Except he appears to be no better than Povich or Irvin.

wow

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, nsw said:

I don't think he's "a #3," just saying he is depth insurance. There may be a bigger deal still in the works, who knows? 

We don't need "depth insurance" right now. We need difference makers to help push us over the top.

This trade is embarrassingly bad IMO. I'm literally in disbelief that Elias would do this again.

[terpoh]

2 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Just because everyone is doing something, doesn't make it good idea...

Would you rather have Cade Povich pitching?

[bluedog]

 I will say this -- given the injuries to starters this year, championship teams need to go into the season with 8 - 9 guys who are capable of taking the ball every 5 days with a reasonable shot of going 5 - 6 innings and keeping their team in the game. From that perspective I'm okay with the deal for Rogers.

[e16bball]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Please look for the forest through the trees.  You all are looking at a small sampling of starts this year where he wasn’t good and extrapolating that out over his career.

And again, as I have talked about, there is something weird going on in Miami because all of their statcast numbers are ugly for the starters, even though they weren’t in the past

2022-2024: 4.92 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 4.34 xFIP

That’s a pretty substantial sample, in the sense that it comprises about 60% of his career MLB innings. Hard to locate much data in his profile over that period of time that suggests anything other than a fringe rotation guy.

We’re an awfully long way from 2021 at this point. If they can help him rediscover 94-95 on the fastball, maybe there’s something there. But it seems a whole lot like a once-electric arm that no longer has the same juice.

If they’d gotten your guy Nardi in this deal, I’d feel so much better about it. Even if they had to add another middling prospect to do it.

[bluedog]

Just now, terpoh said:

Would you rather have Cade Povich pitching?

Cade Povich wasn't the option. Suarez was. 

[Just Regular]

Would you trade 2.5 years of Trevor Rogers for 1.5 years of Erick Fedde?

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Kikuchi is a rental, Rogers has two and a half years of control. Not at all similar.

Plus, the return Toronto got for Kikuchi is way stronger than Norby and Stowers. Now, I do not love this trade since I am not enamored with Rodgers and I'd like to think they could hvae done better for Norby and Stowers, but the Astros trade was far worse.

[SteveA]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The negative reaction wouldn't have been as bad if Norby hadn't popped a couple homers and made a few plays in the field that made everyone go "What bad reports about his defense?!?!"

We'll see what Rogers can do for us.  I'm hoping Elias and Sig see something in his profile that make them think there's improvements that they can make.  I'm not upset about a lefty in Camden Yards, either.

I'm also excited because Kevin Brown will remind everyone that this guy was a 1st round draft pick in 2017.

You disappointed me last night in the 9th inning.   Brown was talking about it being Geddy Lee's birthday and the anniversarey of Neal Peart joining Rush and going on and on about how great Rush was.   I was so sure you were going to post something to the game thread that I posted "I agree with the post that Moose is about to make".   But you let me down.

[1fingerwillie]

8 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Could be worst deadline trade in history

I like Norby and Stowers to both be productive ML starters, for an oft injured scrub who was good once 3 years ago.

He'll fit right in as he never goes more than 5 innings in any start.

 

He was actually good last week. And the week before. And the week before. And the week before...

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It's not just this year.   He wasn't exactly great in 2022 either.   2023 was a washout year due to injuries.

Seems like you are the one looking at the small recent sample size of 9 starts and considering it more important than the 39 previosu starts from Apr 2022 to June 2024.

Actually when I first posted this, I didn’t even realize the last 9 starts were good. 
 

He has been on my radar and a guy I had mentioned as a target. He fits in that mold of a guy like Detmers or Luzardo…may or may not help this year but is a good long term upside play with multiple years of service time.

Clearly Elias and Sig agree. 

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, e16bball said:

2022-2024: 4.92 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 4.34 xFIP

That’s a pretty substantial sample, in the sense that it comprises about 60% of his career MLB innings. Hard to locate much data in his profile over that period of time that suggests anything other than a fringe rotation guy.

We’re an awfully long way from 2021 at this point. If they can help him rediscover 94-95 on the fastball, maybe there’s something there. But it seems a whole lot like a once-electric arm that no longer has the same juice.

If they’d gotten your guy Nardi in this deal, I’d feel so much better about it. Even if they had to add another middling prospect to do it.

He didn't really pitch in 2023 (4 games). He was rough in 2022 and has been pretty meh this year though.