Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

Tony is Tom Brady-obsessive about how he takes care of his body.  

That's good, but it doesn't provide any particular reason to believe that he will fare better against Father Time than all of the similarly one dimensional sluggers who were firmly below replacement level players by 32 or 33 years old. I am sure plenty of those guys worked out and ate well too, but their bats slowed down and their ability to slug evaporated anyway.

Santander hits HRs. That's it. He has absolutely no other on-field value (unlike guys like Judge and Ohtani), so if he stops hitting so many HRs, his value will completely crater, and for players like him, that tends to happen in the exact timeframe an extension would cover. Could he be an exception that continues hitting 30+ HRs well into his mid-30s? Sure, it's possible, but I would much rather another team take that $20-25 million a year gamble.

[Three Run Homer]

I'm ok with giving Santander a reasonable contract in the offseason, as long as they package Kjerstad for a good starting pitcher.  I don't think there's room for both Santander and Kjerstad on the team.  

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

 

8 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'm ok with giving Santander a reasonable contract in the offseason, as long as they package Kjerstad for a good starting pitcher.  I don't think there's room for both Santander and Kjerstad on the team.  

 

 

I am pretty positive that ship has already sailed. He's going to be heading into free agency as arguably the second best hitter available behind Soto and a ton of teams are desperate for offense right now.

Somebody is going to offer him 9 figures or pretty close to it (and they will most likely regret doing so).

[gallden]

Apologies if this has been posted 

https://x.com/MikeFranz8/status/1827358818210054174/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1827358818210054174&currentTweetUser=MikeFranz8

 

[EddeeEddee]

14 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Santander hits HRs. That's it. He has absolutely no other on-field value (unlike guys like Judge and Ohtani), so if he stops hitting so many HRs, his value will completely crater, and for players like him, that tends to happen in the exact timeframe an extension would cover. Could he be an exception that continues hitting 30+ HRs well into his mid-30s? Sure, it's possible, but I would much rather another team take that $20-25 million a year gamble.

So who replaces him?  The only outfielder free agent better than him is Juan Soto.  Good luck signing him. 

The O's could go after someone like Tyler O'Neill as a platoon with Kjerstad.  But Kjerstad is probably even worse in the outfield and hasn't had enough opportunities yet to instill confidence.  And the O's may have trouble signing O'Neill away from the Red Sox.  Hard to say.

If they let Santander walk without a serious plan to replace him then there is a big hole in the lineup.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

So who replaces him?  The only outfielder free agent better than him is Juan Soto.  Good luck signing him. 

The O's could go after someone like Tyler O'Neill as a platoon with Kjerstad.  But Kjerstad is probably even worse in the outfield and hasn't had enough opportunities yet to instill confidence.  And the O's may have trouble signing O'Neill away from the Red Sox.  Hard to say.

If they let Santander walk without a serious plan to replace him then there is a big hole in the lineup.

Travis Snider

[DrinkinWithFermi]

18 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

So who replaces him?  The only outfielder free agent better than him is Juan Soto.  Good luck signing him. 

The O's could go after someone like Tyler O'Neill as a platoon with Kjerstad.  But Kjerstad is probably even worse in the outfield and hasn't had enough opportunities yet to instill confidence.  And the O's may have trouble signing O'Neill away from the Red Sox.  Hard to say.

If they let Santander walk without a serious plan to replace him then there is a big hole in the lineup.

"Who replaces him?" isn't a great justification for paying him $20 million a year or more into his mid-30s, especially when Kjerstad has a higher ceiling and nothing left to prove in the minors.

Heston should be should be the OD RF next year. Simple as.

[EddeeEddee]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Heston should be should be the OD RF next year. 

People were saying that about Heston before this season.  And Stowers too.  Just like they were saying that about Holliday at 2B and Mayo at not sure which position prior to the season.  "Nothing left to prove in the minors" means very little. 

Even if Cowser had replaced Santander in RF he wouldn't have really come close to replacing Santander's offense this season -- plus we'd be stuck without an everyday LF.  

Kjerstad may be better off replacing O'Hearn in the lineup, though it's hard to imagine the O's not bringing back O'Hearn with his cheap option.

[EddeeEddee]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Travis Snider

Is Yusniel Diaz still in the system?  That should let us stick Kjerstad at DH or 1B.

In all seriousness I like Kjerstad, but I think it's asking too much for him to come close to replacing Santander's production next season when he's hardly played this season.  He needs to come back healthy and work his way into the lineup.  

But I also agree we should not offer Santander a long contract.  Something around 3-4 years at most.  They may not offer him anything other than the qualifying offer, but if they don't I hope they have a real plan to replace him.

[ScGO's]

• I think Santander would be an overpay at this point. Take the draft pick. Kjerstad, Mayo, etc will take over in RF

[Sports Guy]

If Kjerstad is truly done for the year and he is having these concussion issues, he may not have trade value this offseason. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

"Who replaces him?" isn't a great justification for paying him $20 million a year or more into his mid-30s, especially when Kjerstad has a higher ceiling and nothing left to prove in the minors.

Heston should be should be the OD RF next year. Simple as.

With his concussion issue I think we may need a plan B. Mayo/O'Hearn? 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

People were saying that about Heston before this season.  And Stowers too.  Just like they were saying that about Holliday at 2B and Mayo at not sure which position prior to the season.  "Nothing left to prove in the minors" means very little. 

Even if Cowser had replaced Santander in RF he wouldn't have really come close to replacing Santander's offense this season -- plus we'd be stuck without an everyday LF.  

Kjerstad may be better off replacing O'Hearn in the lineup, though it's hard to imagine the O's not bringing back O'Hearn with his cheap option.

The thing is though, I don't think it's anywhere close to a lock that Santander 2025 can fully replace Santander 2024's production.

This year is something of an outlier compared to his full body of work (2020 notwithstanding), and it just so happens to be his walk year, and as we have seen over and over again through the years, a lot of guys just so happen to have massive career years immediately prior to hitting free agency, then get paid by someone as if the walk year is the new norm and then immediately return to producing at a rate much closer to the career averages. Santander's career OPS and OPS+ prior to this year were .766 and 109 respectively, and that simply isn't terribly hard to replace.

In fact, Kjerstad has already bested both numbers in his brief MLB action at .779 and 123 (114 PAs), and I don't see any reason to think he won't be able to continue producing at such a rate, but I do see plenty of reason reason to think he could even better than that.

It's time to find out.

15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

With his concussion issue I think we may need a plan B. Mayo/O'Hearn? 

I would be fine with getting Mayo some experience in RF in ST and AAA early in the year. We probably should have been doing that already TBH.

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, gallden said:

Apologies if this has been posted 

https://x.com/MikeFranz8/status/1827358818210054174/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1827358818210054174&currentTweetUser=MikeFranz8

 

Link isn’t working for me.  What does it say?

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The thing is though, I don't think it's anywhere close to a lock that Santander 2025 can fully replace Santander 2024's production.

My working assumption is that Santander’s 2025 will look more like his 2022-23 seasons than 2024.   That’s still not bad though.   

I already ran a bunch of comps in another thread, and there’s a decent chance Santander could be productive for another 3 years (though that’s not guaranteed).  Beyond that, he’d be in outlier territory.   
 

Edited August 25 by Frobby