Vance Honeycutt

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Are there any recent examples across MLB with guys with questionable hit tools becoming better?  That seems like a tool that is hard to develop in a season college hitter.  

 

I don't follow the drafts as closely though as some folks do.  

[RZNJ]

A lot of college hitters are off to slow starts so there’s always the question of rust and timing.

For instance, Charlie Condon, taken 1:3 by Colorado is in A+.    Condon only struck out 13.4% this year at Georgia, hit 37 homers with an OPS over 1.500, one of the best college seasons of all time.

In 90 PA in A+ he has only 1 homer, 2 BB, 29 K,  a .193 avg and .545 OPS.    I imagine we might have a little more stress over something like that.

[Warehouse]

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over control years to varying degrees.

Even when you consider effects from health/consistency, this paints a rosy picture of outcomes vs. the stats shared by Skanar.  So I might be overly optimistic here. On the other hand, college outfielders probably have better outcomes than other profiles, teams have likely improved evaluation since the early 90s, 22 is better than 21-30, and Elias may be a better evaluator than average.

 

Percentile	WAR/525 PAs	Comps
95th	5+	Brent Rooker bat, Kevin Kiermaier glove, Bobby Witt baserunning
90th	3.5-4.5	Luis Robert Jr or Byron Buxton without the injuries
75th	2.5-3.5	Jose Siri
60th	~2	Drew Stubbs
50th	1-2	Some version of Michael A. Taylor, Brett Phillips, or Keon Broxton with more power but also more Ks
40th	0-1	Sam Hilliard, Bradley Zimmer
30th	<0	Christian Pache, Daz Cameron, Arismendy Alcantera, Drew Robinson
≤ 20th	Never make majors	Jeren Kendall

[ChuckS]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A lot of college hitters are off to slow starts so there’s always the question of rust and timing.

For instance, Charlie Condon, taken 1:3 by Colorado is in A+.    Condon only struck out 13.4% this year at Georgia, hit 37 homers with an OPS over 1.500, one of the best college seasons of all time.

In 90 PA in A+ he has only 1 homer, 2 BB, 29 K,  a .193 avg and .545 OPS.    I imagine we might have a little more stress over something like that.

This is concerning, small sample size or not. 

It will be an uphill battle to develop this guy into an effective big league player. 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over control years to varying degrees.

Even when you consider effects from health/consistency, this paints a rosy picture of outcomes vs. the stats shared by Skanar.  So I might be overly optimistic here. On the other hand, college outfielders probably have better outcomes than other profiles, teams have likely improved evaluation since the early 90s, 22 is better than 21-30, and Elias may be a better evaluator than average.

 

Percentile	WAR/525 PAs	Comps
95th	5+	Brent Rooker bat, Kevin Kiermaier glove, Bobby Witt baserunning
90th	3.5-4.5	Luis Robert Jr or Byron Buxton without the injuries
75th	2.5-3.5	Jose Siri
60th	~2	Drew Stubbs
50th	1-2	Some version of Michael A. Taylor, Brett Phillips, or Keon Broxton with more power but also more Ks
40th	0-1	Sam Hilliard, Bradley Zimmer
30th	<0	Christian Pache, Daz Cameron, Arismendy Alcantera, Drew Robinson
≤ 20th	Never make majors	Jeren Kendall

Well, I applaud the work and amount of time you spent on this.   Very interesting.

[LookitsPuck]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I just don't get why Law and other say this. Who is this guy with big time swing and miss that they sprinkled their hitting fairy dust on and became a good major league hitter?

 

Not that I think Westburg and his 22% college strikeout rate is the same as the almost 27% strikeout rate as VH, but you gotta give the O’s credit for not only drafting him but not seeing that rate plummet making his ways to the majors where his strikeout rate is currently 22%.

The majors are littered with guys that strikeout like VH, but are still major leaguers and impact major leaguers at that. Can VH make it through the minors with that rate? Remains to be seen. And can he reduce that rate to something more respectable? We’ll see. 

Also, let’s be honest here. A 5% difference in strikeout rate is the equivalent of 30 strikeouts extra a year if getting 600 PA. 

I think the interesting thing about Vance is that he did make adjustments and did see his rate drop, albeit it did increase again. So I think the O’s see not just a lot of potential but even simple mechanical changes that can get that rate down.

[Tony-OH]

44 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Not that I think Westburg and his 22% college strikeout rate is the same as the almost 27% strikeout rate as VH, but you gotta give the O’s credit for not only drafting him but not seeing that rate plummet making his ways to the majors where his strikeout rate is currently 22%.

The majors are littered with guys that strikeout like VH, but are still major leaguers and impact major leaguers at that. Can VH make it through the minors with that rate? Remains to be seen. And can he reduce that rate to something more respectable? We’ll see. 

Also, let’s be honest here. A 5% difference in strikeout rate is the equivalent of 30 strikeouts extra a year if getting 600 PA. 

I think the interesting thing about Vance is that he did make adjustments and did see his rate drop, albeit it did increase again. So I think the O’s see not just a lot of potential but even simple mechanical changes that can get that rate down.

But his strike outs rate did not plummet. I 100% give the Orioles credit for drafting and developing Jordan Westburg. I just don't think he was  project a pick like say a Rhodes, Fabian or Young. Honeycutt's miss if very high currently and was in college, hence was he dropped to #22 and some evaluators had him even lower. 

But here's the thing, the issue isn't whether he's just going to strike more at the major league level than say a Westburg. The concern is that the miss means there are holes in his swing that major league pitchers will be able to take advantage of, and if he can't solve them, he won't hit at all at the major league level.

We're a long way from knowing that and won't know this based off his limited playing time at the end of this year. Next year should give us a better indication, but remember, Fabian hit well in Aberdeen before hitting the wall a bit in AA.

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But his strike outs rate did not plummet. I 100% give the Orioles credit for drafting and developing Jordan Westburg. I just don't think he was  project a pick like say a Rhodes, Fabian or Young. Honeycutt's miss if very high currently and was in college, hence was he dropped to #22 and some evaluators had him even lower. 

But here's the thing, the issue isn't whether he's just going to strike more at the major league level than say a Westburg. The concern is that the miss means there are holes in his swing that major league pitchers will be able to take advantage of, and if he can't solve them, he won't hit at all at the major league level.

We're a long way from knowing that and won't know this based off his limited playing time at the end of this year. Next year should give us a better indication, but remember, Fabian hit well in Aberdeen before hitting the wall a bit in AA.

Honeycutt's strikeouts went down significantly from his freshman to sophomore years but so did his productivity.  He went back to what worked his junior year.   His freshman stats and junior stats are almost identical.     If they can figure out a way to get more contact without losing impact they get a gold star and a very good player.  Crossing my fingers but not holding my breath. 

[Sports Guy]

I think some of this is also an understanding that teams don’t value the same things they did 15+ years ago..had to be some adjusting made to the new way of things.

Hitting 220 isn’t considered a big problem anymore..even if it should be.

[btdart20]

16 hours ago, Say O! said:

Co-sign “Jump” but would really love if walked out to “Eruption”

Yes!  That's the one I couldn't think of!  

[seak05]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Absolutely great point.   Counterpoint.

.318/410/.724

.305/418/.711

Mac Horvath’s slash line at the same school as a junior one year previous.   All prospects are individuals so it certainly doesn’t mean Honeycutt is going to have a disappointing first season like Horvath but it’s a sobering thought to see the similarities and realize Horvath’s strikeout rate was much lower at 20.8% his junior year.

I’m not trying to bash Honeycutt or the pick.   We all know there’s great upside there and no pick at #22 has a high rate of success.    It’s just that he comes with long odds and his extremely SSS is pretty much confirmation bias so far.    It’s also worth noting that his 27.4% strikeout rate was way higher than any previos Oriole draft pick in their draft year and it’s hard to find a player who’s college K rate went lower as a pro.   We all know once you get into the 30% area in the minors it’s close to the danger zone and his starter kit was at 27.4%.  Good luck to the Orioles and Honeycutt.   They have their work cut out for them.

Think that is a different conversation in terms of the draft, Honeycutt was drafted higher then Fabian because Fabian was worse offensively. He was drafted higher then Horvath because he is much better defensively. 

But yeah, as you pointed out...lot of work to do with Honeycutt to get him to where he needs to be offensively, and very real chance he doesn't get here 

[Dunk35]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think some of this is also an understanding that teams don’t value the same things they did 15+ years ago..had to be some adjusting made to the new way of things.

Hitting 220 isn’t considered a big problem anymore..even if it should be.

Exactly! Santander type bat with all his other tools and he's a star player. (.225/30/100) w plus plus defense and baserunning. 

[OsFanInOhio]

14 hours ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

Are there any recent examples across MLB with guys with questionable hit tools becoming better?  That seems like a tool that is hard to develop in a season college hitter.  

 

I don't follow the drafts as closely though as some folks do.  

It’s not someone we drafted, but Ryan o’Hearn had hit .211 over 4 seasons after a promising rookie debut. He struck out between 24% and 28% over those 4 years. Yes that is in the mlb, not college. And yes, some of o’hearns batting average gains have been due to the elimination of the shift, but he’s been a .275 hitter the last two years with the orioles. Beyond that, in his first season with the o’s he cut his k rate to 22% (a career low at the time) and subsequently has only struck out 13% of the time this year. He gets protected from lefties, but it still shows a pretty unbelievable improvement in his k rate (particularly because I think the royals were protecting him against lefties somewhat too). 
Are Vance’s issues swing recognition? Miss rate in zone? Out of zone? I haven’t really done the research, but I would say o’Hearn is at least an example that might give us hope. 

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Dunk35 said:

Exactly! Santander type bat with all his other tools and he's a star player. (.225/30/100) w plus plus defense and baserunning. 

I thought something similar. Except either comparing to a cf version of Jorge Mateo with 30hr power, or somewhere in the realm of Giancarlo Stanton if he could play defense and steal bases. He’s had a ops+ of 112, 86 and 121 the last 3 years despite striking out 30% of the time (quite a bit more than Santander). If Vance puts up 100-110 ops+ then plays elite cf defense and can steal 20+ bases, a k rate that high can still play. At least in theory. 

Edited September 4 by OsFanInOhio

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Dunk35 said:

Exactly! Santander type bat with all his other tools and he's a star player. (.225/30/100) w plus plus defense and baserunning. 

If the O's get Joey Gallo out of Honeycutt we should be happy?