Playoff Bullpen Usage

[Spy Fox]

How do you want to see Hyde deploy the bullpen in this KC series? Who do you trust most and least right now in a late and close situation? These are presumably conversations being held by the O's leadership today. 

For reference, here's how the IP broke down last year against Texas: 

• G1: Bradish 4.2, Coulombe 0.2, Webb 0.1, Hall 1.2, Wells 1, Perez 0.2
• G2: Rodriguez 1.2, Coulombe 0.1, Baker 0.1, Webb 1.2, Flaherty 2, Wells 1, Perez 1, Cano 1
• G3: Kremer 1.2, Wells 1.1, Gibson 3, Hall 1.2, Cano 0.1

Of course, success will start with longer outings by the SPs. After that, what do you want to see? 

[lifelongbirdfan]

I wouldn't mind using Hall and Wells for some innings.=) At least we won't have to watch Brian Baker.

I hope we don't have to use Perez. I would ride Akin, Soto, Coulombe, Cano, and Dominquez. In playoffs, would be nice to have a bona fide stud or two rather than 6 solid arms. Hopefully some guys step up like Hall did last year.

[e16bball]

For me, bullpen strategy in a short series is developing a core principle or two and working backwards from that. That’s usually going to involve how we want to pitch to their best guys.

In this case, there’s really no way to game Witt. He doesn’t have any discernible platoon splits, and in fact he destroyed RHPs this year. He doesn’t even have any particular pitches he struggles against. If you have to pitch to him, power stuff seems to be the way to go — if he has any weakness, it seems like maybe it’s LHPs who can attack him with high velocity and some sort of off speed weapon (Skubal, Framber, Kikuchi, EdRod, Rodon, Sale, Gore). So maybe you’re looking at Soto and Perez there, although you really just shouldn’t be pitching to him at all if you can avoid it.

Beyond him, the other “hero” is Salvador Perez. And that’s from where I’d be building out my strategy. He probably should not see a LHP all series. There’s a fairly meaningful career platoon split there (109 wRC+ to 101), and it’s been more pronounced this year (130 to 110). I would be looking to force feed him ABs against Cano (1/4 with a single), Webb (0/2 with two Ks), and Dominguez. He’s always had trouble with offspeed stuff, which means Webb might be the preferred option.

They’ve faced a ton of LH starters in the last week or so, but it seems like their preferred lineup against RHPs stacks LH hitters like Melendez and Gurriel behind Perez.

Melendez is awful against LHPs, so ideally Perez might be the last hitter that the starters see. They pinch hit very liberally in platoon fashion in the bottom half of the lineup, so if you brought in someone like Akin behind the starter, they might very well hit for him. Forcing them to do that erases a lot of the platoon stacking in the late innings, so you could subsequently bring in a RHP to pitch to Perez without the same concern that they’d be exposed after him. 
 

In sum, I think the ideal attack plan is for Burnes/Eflin/Kremer to see Perez three times, then bring in Akin or Cionel to pitch to the bottom of what will likely be a lefty-heavy lineup. They’ll potentially PH there, but that’s okay because none of those guys are that good. You then go to one of the RHPs for the top of the lineup, which it seems will consist of Pham, Witt (pitch around), and Perez. Then back to Coulombe or Soto for the bottom of the lineup again.

Edited 11 hours ago by e16bball

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The Orioles starters absolutely have to do better against the Royals. You can't ask this bullpen to pitch most of the game and expect to win. Right now I probably trust Coulombe the most and Soto (which I never would have guessed a couple weeks back).

Perez has been really shaky recently to the point I'm wondering is he nursing a tired arm or minor injuey. Cano hasn't been good as well and O's really need him to get back into a groove. And Akin is usually trustworthy, but only starting the inning clean.

Edited 11 hours ago by OsFanSinceThe80s

[waroriole]

Right now I’d trust Coulombe, Soto, and Akin. When I need a RH I’d go with Cano or Webb. Don’t wanna see Dominguez or Perez in a close game. 
 

This is why I don’t like the decision to pitch Suarez 6 IP on Sunday. He would help us in the pen more than Povich. 

Edited 5 hours ago by waroriole

[Warehouse]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

You then go to one of the RHPs for the top of the lineup, which it seems will consist of Pham, Witt (pitch around), and Perez. 

Pasquantino is likely back today and could be batting third, though I’m not sure that would change the strategy.

[Just Regular]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

In sum, I think the ideal attack plan is for Burnes/Eflin/Kremer to see Perez three times, then bring in Akin or Cionel to pitch to the bottom of what will likely be a lefty-heavy lineup.

It looks like Sal can be 3rd or 4th any given day.

Hyde isn't going to mess with Burnes, but you could also hook the Game 2 or Game 3 starter after 17-18 batters faced, use one of those high velo lefties on Witt, and go to a righty for Sal during the third time through the order.

[theobird]

Pitching around Bobby Witt is a hard thing to do. Imo, he’s the best player in the game. If you pitch around him, it’s essentially a double because he’ll steal second almost immediately, especially with Burnes on the mound. 

 The good news is, we are a much more talented team, top to bottom. Salvy is good, but he is not a world beater anymore. I expect Burnes to pitch aggressively to Witt, walking him is a bad option. 

[Aristotelian]

I think Hyde will do what he's done all year and match up for 3-4 batters at a time once the starter is tired. I don't think any of our bullpen arms are of the Bautista/Chapman/Mariano type that you would want to pitch multiple inning saves. The most exciting difference might be seeing Burnes getting high leverage outs in a Game 7 after starting Game 4. 

Seranthony may start the 9th but Hyde should keep a lefty ready for those inevitable times he throws 30 pitches and a couple of his designated batters reach base. 

[Ohfan67]

15 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

How do you want to see Hyde deploy the bullpen in this KC series? Who do you trust most and least right now in a late and close situation? These are presumably conversations being held by the O's leadership today. 

For reference, here's how the IP broke down last year against Texas: 

• G1: Bradish 4.2, Coulombe 0.2, Webb 0.1, Hall 1.2, Wells 1, Perez 0.2
• G2: Rodriguez 1.2, Coulombe 0.1, Baker 0.1, Webb 1.2, Flaherty 2, Wells 1, Perez 1, Cano 1
• G3: Kremer 1.2, Wells 1.1, Gibson 3, Hall 1.2, Cano 0.1

Of course, success will start with longer outings by the SPs. After that, what do you want to see? 

I had blocked out those horrible details. What a horrible showing by the starting pitching. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I had blocked out those horrible details. What a horrible showing by the starting pitching. 

I wasn’t crazy about Hyde’s decision to pull Bradish after 4.2 IP, 2 R.  He wasn’t at his best, but he was wasn’t bad, either.  He had a runner on 1st and had struck out two straight batters when he was pulled after 84 pitches.