BA's 2009 Mock Draft (v4.0)

[jamesenoch]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2009/268312.html

First 10 (With BA's v1.0, v2.0, v3.0 pick in parenthesis) :

01) Nationals - Strasburg

02) Mariners - Dustin Ackley

03) Padres - Donovan Tate (Mike Minor, Grant Green)

04) Pirates - Aaron Crow (Crow, Kyle Gibson)

05) Orioles - Zack Wheeler (Kyle Gibson, Alex White)

06) Giants - Tyler Matzek (Matzek, Donovan Tate)

07) Braves - Alex White (Mike Minor, Zack Wheeler)

08) Red - Mike Minor (Kyle Gibson, Tanner Scheppers , Aaron Crow)

09) Tiger - Rex Brothers (Jacob Turner)

10) Nationals - Drew Storen (Chad Jenkins)

What they are saying about the Orioles : Baltimore has spent a lot of time with Wheeler, which would break Atlanta's heart. The Orioles also could use a shortstop, so Green could go here, and they'll be mightily tempted by Matzek, who has risen to No. 2 on some draft boards with his performance in the California high school playoffs.

Interesting Notes : According to multiple team sources, several of the draft's best high school players blew them away when they revealed their price tags. California lefthander Tyler Matzek, the best prep prospect in the draft, wants "precedent-setting money," which is interpreted to mean that he wants to surpass the record $7 million guarantee for a high schooler given to Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. Texas righthander Shelby Miller, previously believed to be signable for around MLB's bonus recommendations, is asking for $4 million.

New Jersey outfielder Mike Trout (upwards of $2.5 million), Texas outfielder Slade Heathcott (upwards of $2 million), Florida third baseman Bobby Borchering ($2 million), North Carolina catcher Wil Myers ($2 million) and California outfielder Jake Marisnick ($2 million) all want top-10 pick money. Oklahoma southpaw Chad James seeks $1.75 million. Previously, Missouri righty Jacob Turner and Texas lefty Matt Purke alluded to Porcello money, while Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate will cost $6 million or more.

Teams are indignant about what they believe to be unrealistic expectations. Two different scouting directors remarked last night that they were getting seven-figure signability estimates for players their clubs hadn't even planned to draft. On the other side, agents are just as upset about commissioner Bud Selig's unilateral 10 percent reduction in the slot recommendations.

[tywright]

I love how these high schoolers and guys who haven't even finished college think they can make more money in this crappy economy than the draft picks last year. And just think most college graduates can't even get jobs right now!

I'll take Wheeler

[JCK]

I think there's going to be a huge number of non-signers this year. Players will be more inclined than ever to put off negotiations til next year, when presumably the economy will have rebounded more.

[ccbird]

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the hour that Wheeler is our guy. Only way that possibly changes is if Ackley somehow dropped to 5. I'm curious to see who we would go with if the top 4 went Stras, Ackley,Crow, Wheeler. It might be my worst fear now as I really think we are going to avoid Matzek and some of these other prepsters who are asking for a lot of money. I'm thinking it would probably be White.

[Sports Guy]

I don't see the Orioles giving a HS kid 7 million.

[Burg]

I don't see the Orioles giving a HS kid 7 million.

Good. They shouldn't.

[DocJJ]

I'd much rather put $4million in the bank, than not sign with the team that drafted me, go to college (or Juco) and tear my labrum and have no money at all...

Hmmm....let's see the simple math again:

$4 million vs $0

Foolish, petty, children...

[tywright]

Damn BA has Green sliding out of the 1st round.

[LookinUp]

I'd much rather put $4million in the bank, than not sign with the team that drafted me, go to college (or Juco) and tear my labrum and have no money at all...

Hmmm....let's see the simple math again:

$4 million vs $0

Foolish, petty, children...

Yeah. People need to consider the full story when discussing the signability of high schoolers. Say we pick Matzek or Wheeler at #5 and offer them at or just above slot...how much could they really gain by going to college over three years? At the same time, how much risk are they taking (injury, over use, lack of performance, no paycheck, later to FA)?

I understand a guy who's being offered end of first type money going to school. It's less believable with top of first guys, though not impossible.

[Mackus]

I'd much rather put $4million in the bank, than not sign with the team that drafted me, go to college (or Juco) and tear my labrum and have no money at all...

Hmmm....let's see the simple math again:

$4 million vs $0

Foolish, petty, children...

Most of these guys can take out insurance policies that at least guarantee them some pretty big dollars if they do get hurt, so its not $x million vs. $0.

That said, I agree with your general point, and I think most of the draft picks ultimately will sign.

[MaineFan]

I'd much rather put $4million in the bank, than not sign with the team that drafted me, go to college (or Juco) and tear my labrum and have no money at all...

Hmmm....let's see the simple math again:

$4 million vs $0

Foolish, petty, children...

I certainly agree with you. But many 18 year old athletes don't see it that way. They believe they are indestructable. Wheeler seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders, so while I think I'd rather have Matzek or Turner, Wheeler seems like a safer option to sign.

[JTrea81]

More reports coming in about the Pirates and Tony Sanchez.

http://bucsbits.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/draft_day_pirates_leaning_towa.html

Good lord, what are the Pirates thinking?

Damn, if Seattle passes on Ackley and the Padres and Pirates do as well...

[QBsILLEST1]

I certainly agree with you. But many 18 year old athletes don't see it that way. They believe they are indestructable. Wheeler seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders, so while I think I'd rather have Matzek or Turner, Wheeler seems like a safer option to sign.

Its funny how folks thought Tate was gonna be the expensive one, and he may end up being the 3rd or 4th most expensive. I like Matzek, but hes not as good as Beckett or Porcello was IMO. THIS is where signability comes into play, I dont see how we could pay a HS arm more bonus $$ than we did to Wieters, not happenin....

[Hank Scorpio]

This is certainly an interesting piece of that :

Huntington has emphasized that the organization's Draft needs to be judged based on the entire product and not the first-round pick. He also recently mentioned that the club's first-round selection will likely not be extremely popular. That could all be pointing to Sanchez as being the guy, despite the fact that he is not listed as a first-round selection in every pre-Draft rankings.

[Shopay]

Most of these guys can take out insurance policies that at least guarantee them some pretty big dollars if they do get hurt, so its not $x million vs. $0.

That said, I agree with your general point, and I think most of the draft picks ultimately will sign.

Good point, but a couple of quick questions. If the player chooses to go the insurance and college route, then the insurance policy has to be obtained by the player, presumably his parents, and not his agent -- correct? I know insurance policies are only a fraction of the cost of what is being insured, but in today's economy, that may not be a cost that some parents/players are willing to and/or can "pony up."