Poll- Would You Make This Trade?

[Tony-OH]

I've been making the Paul O'neil comp for about a year now. He's not going to be the focal point of your offense, but he's going to be a player hitting in the lower half of your offense (if it's a really good offense) that is going to crush other guys around the league hitting in the same slot. He's a very good player, but not elite. We need some elite bats - at least one - to take that next step offensively. If we got that bat and AJ, Wieters, Reimold, and Snyder all progressed, we'd have a very deep, very powerful lineup.

Funny, I was making the Paul O'Neill comp when he was in the minor leagues.

Markakis is far from being our problem on offense and is certainly part of a bright future in my opinion. He's not going to be a big home run guy but he will hit around .300 or more every year, take some walks and club 20-30 homers. I'll take it...

[Lucky Jim]

but what is a + play? I mean, markakis and jones make plays that look easy that might be considered a + play for someone like an adam dunn. I guess i don't understand how nick markaks goes from a +12 fielding value in 2008 to a -9.1 in 2009.

That type of collapse should be manifesting itself in other more basic numbers. That is why it seems to me to be a fluke in the maths.

If markakis makes an error that would have been the second out - do all subsequent runs after that error count against his uzr? Because that could explain these awful numbers being skewed by a team-wide awwful april when it came to unearned runs.

Is there a way to isolate his uzr from may-present?

+/-

my book, the fielding bible, goes into great length (ad nauseum to some) describing the new fielding system we developed at baseball info solutions, the plus/minus system. Video scouts at bis review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc. Using this in-depth data, we’re able to figure out how each player compares to his peers at his position. How often does derek jeter field that softly batted ball located 20 feet to the right of the normal shortstop position, for example, compared to all other major league shortstops?

A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average. Adam everett turned in the highest score we’ve had in four years of using the system with a +43 at shortstop in 2006. That means he made 43 more plays than the average mlb shortstop would make.

uzr:

i’m pleased to announce that uzr (ultimate zone ratings) stats are now available on fangraphs!

This would of course not be possible without mgl (mitchel lichtman), and i’m extremely grateful that he allowed us to use his fielding model. He’s put in a tremendous amount of work getting the stats ready for use on fangraphs and i really can’t thank him enough.

Unlike other versions of uzr, the ones that appear on fangraphs use baseball info solutions location data instead of stats location data. Also, this uzr data does not currently include outfield arms and double plays are treated as regular outs. Here are the definitions for all the uzr stats available:

Dg (defensive games): The number of outs made by an average fielder at his position given the exact distribution of balls in play for that player divided by the number of outs an average player at that position makes per game.

Exo (expected outs): The number of outs plus reached base errors that would be made by an average fielder given the distribution of balls in play while that fielder was on the field.

Rngr (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

Errr (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

Uzr (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

Uzr/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

[El Gordo]

The hedge against all of this is sample size. It is, of course, going to be prone to small sample problems.

Jones has a 3.5 ARM rating, btw.

I think the ARM rating is incomplete. And probably prone to some kind of noise - which is why, say, Ichiro has ranged from -2.0 to 8.6 w/in a span of three years.

That said, I don't think the substitution of what one "sees" is a proper replacement for more objective metrics. It's why even incomplete metrics are important. They don't suffer the very real biases (as opposed to hypothetical biases like '20 hard hit balls to RF') that individuals do.

I don't see any reason to think Nick shouldn't remain a good fielding RF. But I haven't seen it this year. And the numbers support that.

His +/- is poor, too, btw. So two separate metrics, based on two separate approaches, both designate him as being well-below-average this year.

I'd like to believe that he's not. Unlike you, however, I'm less inclined to disregard those systems just because they don't comport w/ what I see. It's a little O5F-like to do so, I think. (And I don't mean that in nearly the provocative way it might seem - just that we're all prone to our biases, and he's a good example of how those biases manifest themselves while disguising themselves to the individual as objectivity.)

I agree, that's what I'm seeing as well. I agreed with his FB+/- last year, it reflected what I saw. A +11 rating, with +10 shallow, +4 medium, -4 deep. This year it's -2 shallow, -5 medium, -6 deep for a -13. So he seems to be struggling with balls his in front of him or at medium depth this season. It could be a result of the pitching this year but I doubt it.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree, that's what I'm seeing as well. I agreed with his FB+/- last year, it reflected what I saw. A +11 rating, with +10 shallow, +4 medium, -4 deep. This year it's -2 shallow, -5 medium, -6 deep for a -13. So he seems to be struggling with balls his in front of him or at medium depth this season. It could be a result of the pitching this year but I doubt it.

We've talked about this before, but what's the effect of positioning on those numbers? None, right?

Is it possible that the O's bench is hurting both Nick and Adam's numbers by an over-aggressive or flawed positioning?

[Tony-OH]

You really think Markakis is a -19 UZR so far this year based on what you've seen with your own eyes? If so, we definitely disagree. I see a guy playing a good RF in general with good range. He has had a couple glaring mistakes.

You don't see how that ARM rating is just random as all hell? What happens if the next 20 hits to right field with a runner on 1st base are all line drives on one hop right at him? I'll tell you. Nobody will go to third.

However, if the next 20 hits to right field with a runner on 1st base are all bloopers just over the first basemen's head down the line with 2 outs in the inning than ALL of them are going to go to third and there is nothing anybody is going to do about it.

Those type of stats have GOT to be subject to short term statistical anomalies. There just aren't enough balls hit to a RF with a runner on 1st base to even it out in the short term. It would take something like 500 balls out there for the noise to work itself to an acceptable level based on some rudimentary calcs I just did. Also, this number will depend on the 1B range since a lack of range makes the RF have to go to the RF line more often to get balls. It depends on how often a team play a shift in the IF. A hard hit ball that would normally be right at the 2B would be in the gap against a shift and the RF would have a long run that would likely lead to an extra base.

I watch the games and I see guys routinely holding up on Markakis and Jones. I can tell the other team respects the crap out of both of their arms.

Sorry, but I just don't buy that this pseudo science is there yet. I can think of too many ways to distort the numbers in the short and medium term.

Until the time it takes for the ball to reach each defensive zone is taken into consideration, these outfielder metrics will be questionable at best. As for an arm rating, again, time needs to be taken into consideration. How long does it take an outfielder to field a ball from a certain zone and make a throw to the bag?

[mweb]

How can anyone say no to this trade???

Other than the Marlins that is.

I agree with VaTech, this would be a no brainer, Nick doesn't come close to Hanley, and ther other guys don't do a lot to bridge the gap.

[SilentJames]

+/-

uzr:

Yes I got all of that but it doesn't answer my question.

Does ErrR work like Earned runs v Unearned for a pitcher. If out one is an error and that run scores it is an unearned run, but subsequent runs are not counted.

Or, do all runs that come after the error count against him?

Markakis' Range Factor is low so far, he has 129 TC, but only 118 PO. But his Zone Factor is second in the AL, and the first among RF with 600+ innings.

So when it comes to + that seems rather subjective. It is not like he is leading the league in errors.

[Lucky Jim]

Until the time it takes for the ball to reach each defensive zone is taken into consideration, these outfielder metrics will be questionable at best. As for an arm rating, again, time needs to be taken into consideration. How long does it take an outfielder to field a ball from a certain zone and make a throw to the bag?

But +/- does account for that in part, no?

Video scouts at bis review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc.

[Old#5fan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6368&position=OF

But then how is Jones' UZR in the negative as well. I mean by these metrics we have a TERRIBLE outfield when many other metrics say we have a very good outfield. He has three errors, but I am willing to bet he made 2/3 in April when the entire team had a case of the yips and was screwing up.

He made three all last year, has three already this year. I bet he has four/ five by the end of the year. A bad year for him.

I don't really understand what UZR is seeing in both Jones and Markakis that other metrics aren't. And could these numbers be drastically changed by the end of the year? Because it seems to me that UZR is based on RngR and ErrR. And if the player makes an error or two in the beginning of the year that leads to a run or two that could drastically throw off midseason UZR stats.

What the heck does it matter if Markakis made his errors when "the entire team had a case of the yips and was screwing up?" :confused:You think that discounts his errors somehow? :scratchchinhmm:I guess Brooks Robinson and Mark Belanger would screw up intentionally and make errors just so the rest of the the team wouldn't feel bad when they were screwing up? Some of the stuff I read here is mind blowing when it comes to excuses. He is simply not a GG outfielder. He is good but not great or spectacular, same with his hitting.

[ScottieBaseball]

It's like throwing ice cubes at alligators.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes I got all of that but it doesn't answer my question.

Does ErrR work like Earned runs v Unearned for a pitcher. If out one is an error and that run scores it is an unearned run, but subsequent runs are not counted.

Or, do all runs that come after the error count against him?

Markakis' Range Factor is low so far, he has 129 TC, but only 118 PO. But his Zone Factor is second in the AL, and the first among RF with 600+ innings.

So when it comes to + that seems rather subjective. It is not like he is leading the league in errors.

They don't count actual runs against the player. No. That's not how the system works. It has no part in the calculation. Just like someone determining how many runs above average a player is batting doesn't take into account RBIs.

[Lucky Jim]

It's like throwing ice cubes at alligators.

Lock the thread. It's been tagged and bagged.

[SrMeowMeow]

It's like throwing ice cubes at alligators.

I'm going to start a real ruckus if this catches on for reals.

[SilentJames]

But +/- does account for that in part, no?

Okay but what is plus? I mean if Markakis gets to a ball easily gets under it makes the play, not plus. But Adam Dunn has to truck and make a diving catch even though , in theory, it would be the same ball is Adam Dunn plus?

[ScottieBaseball]

Lock the thread. It's been tagged and bagged.

I thought about it, but I don't want anyone to feel oppressed.