Just how good of a prospect is Brandon Waring?

[Mashed Potatoes]

The Carolina League seems to be pitcher friendly (because of the parks or talent distribution I'm not sure), so his .856 OPS is even more impressive, that's 3rd best in the league and one of the dudes in front of him is 25.

[rbandy95]

Waring with a 1-4 today with his 20th HR, a 2 run shot, a BB and a k. Ramon Hernandez deal is looking better by the day with our own version of Mark Reynolds getting stronger as the season progresses. It will be interesting to see where Waring gets ranked in the OH end of season prospect rankings. Can he be left out of the top 10?

[Sports Guy]

I am glad to see him doing well right now...But at age 23, in Frederick, I am far from excited about him.

Talk to me when he is in the upper minors, in leagues that he isn't too old for and performing well.

[AVencill]

23 is pretty much the league-average for the Carolina League. In looking at Potomac's roster in the Carolina League, their average age as a group is 25, and many of their players are in the league for a second or third season.

It's great to see Waring do something that only one other Frederick Key has done before. Back in 2001, Doug Gredvig hit 35 doubles and smacked 20 home runs. Eight years later, Gredvig has some company as Waring currently has 32 doubles and 20 home runs. Gredvig also holds the record for extra-base hits (57) in a season and Waring (54) may very well eclipse that by season's end.

Not to rain on his parade on a great and historic night, Waring committed three more errors (17) at third, one in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings before redeeming himself with the bat. I really see him as a better first baseman than I do at third base where he lacks the range to make some of the plays that more athletic third baseman can make, but the value of his versatility is nice.

[allstar1579]

23 is pretty much the league-average for the Carolina League. In looking at Potomac's roster in the Carolina League, their average age as a group is 25, and many of their players are in the league for a second or third season.

It's great to see Waring do something that only one other Frederick Key has done before. Back in 2001, Doug Gredvig hit 35 doubles and smacked 20 home runs. Eight years later, Gredvig has some company as Waring currently has 32 doubles and 20 home runs. Gredvig also holds the record for extra-base hits (57) in a season and Waring (54) may very well eclipse that by season's end.

Not to rain on his parade on a great and historic night, Waring committed three more errors (17) at third, one in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings before redeeming himself with the bat. I really see him as a better first baseman than I do at third base where he lacks the range to make some of the plays that more athletic third baseman can make, but the value of his versatility is nice.

I like the age comparison, but you scared me with the Gredvig comp. I've never seen a slower human being move down the first base line. Hopefully Waring has more success at AA than Doug did.

[AVencill]

I like the age comparison, but you scared me with the Gredvig comp. I've never seen a slower human being move down the first base line. Hopefully Waring has more success at AA than Doug did.

Don't worry, Brandon has expressed to me on numerous occassions that he has "blazing speed" -- which is fairly accurate as he does move well for a corner infielder.

[allstar1579]

Don't worry, Brandon has expressed to me on numerous occassions that he has "blazing speed" -- which is fairly accurate as he does move well for a corner infielder.

Haha, can't wait to meet him. Waiting to see how the home dates line up after I get back from North Carolina. I'm still shocked he's in Frederick a little bit. I mean having Bell in Bowie does change a little, but Crozier has some wheels for a 1B and could move to RF with Concepcion at DH and they'd be a better team, but I'm guessing they want to see both Bell and Waring play some 3rd the rest of the year, and that's not happening if they are in the same place.

[MisterCrash]

I dunno, Waring doesn't walk at all. At 23 you'd hope he'd have picked that up by now. He obviously has a lot of pop in his bat but bad defensive 3B who don't walk and are behind the curve age-wise don't have a lot of value. He could easily prove me wrong, you know, move to AA next year and hit there, then move to AAA and hit there before coming to the majors at age 25 (which is how old Reimold is now, as a rookie) but I'm not going to say he's a very exciting prospect.

[QSII]

I'll rephrase: His OBP is very low for a power hitter, only .354.

Power hitters tend to have uninspiring OBP. Swing-and-a-miss.

Here are the OBP of top ten home run leaders in the AL right now:

.383

.347

.385

.329

.355

.337

.345

.362

.394

.360

The lowest OPS among them is .827, which shows the relative impact of their SLG.

I have no opinion on Waring. I guess that's the same as not particularly hopeful.

[MisterCrash]

Doesn't mean anything. Uggla is doing pretty well in the majors but at 23 in A+ he had a worse BB rate than Waring.

Wow, that completely meaningless anecdote you just provided sure showed me.

[MisterCrash]

Power hitters tend to have uninspiring OBP. Swing-and-a-miss.

Here are the OBP of top ten home run leaders in the AL right now:

.383

.347

.385

.329

.355

.337

.345

.362

.394

.360

The lowest OPS among them is .827, which shows the relative impact of their SLG.

I have no opinion on Waring. I guess that's the same as not particularly hopeful.

...right, and those guys are in the majors. Hitting gets harder as you go up. If he's OBPing .354 right now, at high-A, why does no one see that as a problem considering he's already behind the curve, age-wise?

[Tony-OH]

Defensively or overall? Because Mark Reynolds has 33 HR and a .968 OPS so far this season.

If the 3rd guy we got back for Ramon Hernandez can become something like that, then holy crap we need to build a Andy MacPhail statue and put it on the freaking pitcher's mound.

I was saying offensively, but I'm also saying his absolute upside, not necessarily where he'll end up. That's probably being a little too optimisitic after looking at Reynolds stats at the same age. I'd like to compare them defensively as well, but I haven't seen Reynolds that much to make the comparision, but as a former shortstop, I'd imaging Reynolds moves better than Waring.

Waring is a just a tad old for the Carolina League (hitters average 22.7 while pitchers average 23.0 years of age but most of the top prospects are at a younger age) so I'm not going to start making him out to be a future superstar, but what has impressed me the most is how his numbers have improved from last year to this year which continues his trend as a late bloomer.

He's not a wide body guy like Doug Gredvig or Mark Fleisher, so that bodes well for him to keep his flexibility and along with that his power. His swing is not as long as thought it would be and although there appears to be some holes, there's nothing there that gives me a red flag, although I have to caveat this with the fact I've only seen him one game this year so far.

One thing to remember when looking at ages is whether a player is a late bloomer or not. Luke Scott put up a .845 OPS in the Carolina Leaue at 26-years old while Waring has a .864 OPS this year.

On the other hand Brad Eldred looks like a decent comp as well and he's not exactly lit up the major leagues. Eldred though was a wide body guy who didn't move as well as Waring so hopefully this is not Waring's future potential.

Either way, Waring has had a nice 2009 campaign, but I agree with those who say we'll have a better idea of what we have after next year at AA.

[TGO]

Tony, your link was correct so I know you meant Brad Eldred. I would be very shocked if Waring pitched over 1300 innings in the majors.

[allstar1579]

I'll rephrase: His OBP is very low for a power hitter, only .354. That's a problem, esepcially if you're a 23-year-old in High-A.

OBP is great and all, but it's not the end-all be-all like some people like to think after Moneyball. Ask Billy Beane how that is working out for him now. Not every player on your team has to be an OBP guy, some guys can be HR guys, some guys can be AVG guys, some can be speed guys. It's all about building a team and balancing out other spots.

Waring is just a power hitter in the sense where he is going to hit some HR, hit some doubles, and strike out a lot. In response to RZ earlier, yes I did say, he is what he is. A Zebra isn't going to change from stripes to spots, and a power hitter that strikes out a ton isn't going to magically stop striking out. It's like the chicken or the egg argument. Is he where he should be because his numbers keep improving from a certain point? Or if he is ready to move up doesn't it stand to reason that of course his numbers are going to get better?

There are certain indicators you look for from different types of hitters, you don't look for the same things for all hitters. In Waring's case, you want to look for a high average (above .275) with good doubles and HR. In other guy's cases you might want to see different things, ex. a leadoff guy you want good speed and a high OBP with low K, an RBI guy you'll want to see high average etc.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, your link was correct so I know you meant Brad Eldred. I would be very shocked if Waring pitched over 1300 innings in the majors.

Thanks, I had old school on my mind.