Just how good of a prospect is Brandon Waring?

[DrungoHazewood]

23 is pretty much the league-average for the Carolina League. In looking at Potomac's roster in the Carolina League, their average age as a group is 25, and many of their players are in the league for a second or third season.

Doesn't mean anything. Uggla is doing pretty well in the majors but at 23 in A+ he had a worse BB rate than Waring.

Waring is a just a tad old for the Carolina League (hitters average 22.7 while pitchers average 23.0 years of age but most of the top prospects are at a younger age) so I'm not going to start making him out to be a future superstar, but what has impressed me the most is how his numbers have improved from last year to this year which continues his trend as a late bloomer.

Tony's quote starts getting us zoned in on the relevant stuff here: sure, the average age in the CL might be 24 or something, but most Carolina League players aren't ever going to play an inning in the majors. The real players, the best ones, are going to be younger than that average most of the time. When you're looking at prospects, especially at lower levels, you need to remember that the guys who'll play in the majors are the outliers. The vast majority of 23-year-olds with Dan Uggla's CL K and BB numbers don't go on to be Dan Uggla. Sure, Luke Scott played half of his age 26 season in the Carolina League and went on to a good major league career. I'd bet the percentage of 26-year-old Carolina League regulars who've done that is less than 1%.

Edit: I started clicking on random teams from the CL page on baseball-ref. Got through 11, and didn't find a single real counter-example to this idea. Every single major league position player (bolded players) was in the CL at age 23 or earlier, most 22 or earlier. The only exceptions were rehab assignments, and Tom Glavine's brother who was in the CL at 25 and then got a 7-at-bat cup of coffee with the Mets at the age of 30.

Brandon Waring may go on to future major league success, but if he does so it'll be because he develops more than a typical 23-year-old in A ball could be expected to.

[MisterCrash]

OBP is great and all, but it's not the end-all be-all like some people like to think after Moneyball. Ask Billy Beane how that is working out for him now.

Wow, that was a really long post. It must have taken you a while to write. Too bad I didn't read it after I got through the above two sentences.

[TheBandit]

Brandon Waring may go on to future major league success, but if he does so it'll be because he develops much more than a typical 23-year-old in A ball could be expected to.

A JuCo kid who's in his 3rd professional season and has progessed a level each year. I'm not sure what else you want since he was 21 when got drafted. His average stats have all improved and he has cut down on his strikeouts. Next year, he'll be 24 in AA and possibly AAA if he would have good success. Even if he didn't 25 years old in AAA is not bad, and 25 or 26 year old Major League debut is not uncommon for a college draftee who doesn't meteor through the minors.

So much emphasis is put on the age of a player for some unknown reason. This speculation is why I left a forum and came here because they were so concerned with the player's age that they discounted the performance. If he was 27 years old with no injury history and still in A-ball, yes, I would be worried about his age. But if the average age is 22.7 and he is 23 and were are calling him "a little old" then you are already discounting his performance.

In AA, if he falls on his face, then we should be skeptical if he will be able to put it together, but I have a feeling he'll have a similar year if not a better year than this year.

Matt Angle is the same age with the same educational & professional path and drafted in the same round of the same draft, is he too old too?

[Mackus]

You sure are a friendly guy and open to opposing opinions. Really respect that about you. :clap3:

I didn't see the post in question, but I saw the response and the two sentences he's talking about.

I don't think allstar believes the sentences he said, or at least meant them how they were worded. He said "OBP isn't the end-all-be-all like some people think after Moneyball", which is true. Some people who didn't read Moneyball think that it is solely about finding guys with high OBP, which it very clearly and definitively is not. And i'm quite confidant allstar knows that.

His second sentence is what comes off the wrong way. "Ask Billy Beane how that is working out for him now". Implying that Beane is still going after guys with high OBP and that's why he's losing. Obviously that's not the case. Moneyball always has been about finding undervalued market qualities and taking advantage of them. That used to be guys with high OBP but low HR/RBI totals. Now everybody wants high OBP guys, so they cost more to get and hence aren't undervalued.

[DrungoHazewood]

So much emphasis is put on the age of a player for some unknown reason. This speculation is why I left a forum and came here because they were so concerned with the player's age that they discounted the performance.

Unknown reason? I think it's very well known. Age isn't everything in a prospect, but it's a huge thing. No, being 23 isn't a death sentence for a guy in A ball. But it does say that the player in question is very unlikely to be a major league star. And somewhat unlikely to be a major league regular.

Back in the 80s Bill James did a study of rookies and figured out that 2-3 years difference in comparably-performing major league rookies makes for an exponential difference in career outlook. If you compare a 21-year-old rookie with an .800 OPS in the majors to another 24-year-old rookie with an .800 OPS in the majors the 21-year-old is likely to have a career several times longer, with two or three times as many hits, doubles, homers, etc.

Look at the list of Hall of Famers sometime. There are 200+ total, 100 or more position players. Of those 100-and-some position players Sam Rice is probably the only one who wasn't an established major leaguer by the age of 24 (not counting guys left out because there weren't any majors when they were 24, or who were stuck in places like the Negro Leagues).

[TheBandit]

Unknown reason? I think it's very well known. Age isn't everything in a prospect, but it's a huge thing. No, being 23 isn't a death sentence for a guy in A ball. But it does say that the player in question is very unlikely to be a major league star. And somewhat unlikely to be a major league regular.

Back in the 80s Bill James did a study of rookies and figured out that 2-3 years difference in comparably-performing major league rookies makes for an exponential difference in career outlook. If you compare a 21-year-old rookie with an .800 OPS in the majors to another 24-year-old rookie with an .800 OPS in the majors the 21-year-old is likely to have a career several times longer, with two or three times as many hits, doubles, homers, etc.

Look at the list of Hall of Famers sometime. There are 200+ total, 100 or more position players. Of those 100-and-some position players Sam Rice is probably the only one who wasn't an established major leaguer by the age of 24 (not counting guys left out because there weren't any majors when they were 24, or who were stuck in places like the Negro Leagues).

Your point isn't valid. A college senior who waits until the deadline to sign will probably turn 23 in his rookie year for the organization. Even if he doesn't, his first full year he will be 23. How many of those college seniors start any higher than A-ball unless they are straight up studs? You are looking at the extreme star potential and there are only a handful of players who possess that and they do shoot through the minors. The rest of the good prospects go up level by level.

By your estimation, Nolan Reimold is old for a debut because he's already 25. He isn't going to be a hall of famer and may never be an all-star, but he is a major league regular. He was 22 in A-ball and had an injury rob him of his 23 year old season. At 24, he was in AA just like Waring will be. Your expectations of prospects are very skewed.

[allstar1579]

I didn't see the post in question, but I saw the response and the two sentences he's talking about.

I don't think allstar believes the sentences he said, or at least meant them how they were worded. He said "OBP isn't the end-all-be-all like some people think after Moneyball", which is true. Some people who didn't read Moneyball think that it is solely about finding guys with high OBP, which it very clearly and definitively is not. And i'm quite confidant allstar knows that.

His second sentence is what comes off the wrong way. "Ask Billy Beane how that is working out for him now". Implying that Beane is still going after guys with high OBP and that's why he's losing. Obviously that's not the case. Moneyball always has been about finding undervalued market qualities and taking advantage of them. That used to be guys with high OBP but low HR/RBI totals. Now everybody wants high OBP guys, so they cost more to get and hence aren't undervalued.

You are correct my friend. Just making reference to the fact that OAK is in full rebuild mode just like other people that took other approaches, Beane is not just some mythical being who can do no wrong, any GM is subject to hits and misses, you can't just focus on one stat, they all know that, but this one aspect got some press and now has a mind of it's own on the interwebs. Also like you said, OBP was the cool thing to do when no one was doing it, but now that any "message board reading baseball professional" overvalues OBP, there are other indicators that are just as important that are being overlooked.

Personally, I could get into a battle of wits with some of these people on here all day, but I'd feel bad about sending them into battle unarmed, so I'll just get back to my point. Waring is no blue chip prospect but has enough redeeming qualities to be considered a possible/fringe prospect who could do well if he continues to improve at higher levels.

[allstar1579]

Your point isn't valid. A college senior who waits until the deadline to sign will probably turn 23 in his rookie year for the organization. Even if he doesn't, his first full year he will be 23. How many of those college seniors start any higher than A-ball unless they are straight up studs? You are looking at the extreme star potential and there are only a handful of players who possess that and they do shoot through the minors. The rest of the good prospects go up level by level.

By your estimation, Nolan Reimold is old for a debut because he's already 25. He isn't going to be a hall of famer and may never be an all-star, but he is a major league regular. He was 22 in A-ball and had an injury rob him of his 23 year old season. At 24, he was in AA just like Waring will be. Your expectations of prospects are very skewed.

Definitely barking up the wrong tree by telling anyone that their post isn't valid...especially Drungo. That guy forgets more baseball knowledge a day than others here will ever have. That being said, maybe you just misunderstood him but he is dead on. MOST of the talent to come through A+ ball is going to come and move up by 23, sure there are exceptions, but those exceptions are being watched and will be advanced early in the season. Using your example a 21-year old college kid will start there, and would have to be repeating the level a 2nd full time to be at that level at this time in the season to still be there at 23. A HS kid might take a while to get there, say a full year in the lower minors, then a full year in low-A ball, even if he repeats a year in low-A for some reason (injuries) he would be 21 in A+ ball.

Most of the best talent should be through A+ by the time they are 23, but a few for whatever reason may still be there, which he acknowledges.

[TheBandit]

Definitely barking up the wrong tree by telling anyone that their post isn't valid...especially Drungo. That guy forgets more baseball knowledge a day than others here will ever have. That being said, maybe you just misunderstood him but he is dead on. MOST of the talent to come through A+ ball is going to come and move up by 23, sure there are exceptions, but those exceptions are being watched and will be advanced early in the season. Using your example a 21-year old college kid will start there, and would have to be repeating the level a 2nd full time to be at that level at this time in the season to still be there at 23. A HS kid might take a while to get there, say a full year in the lower minors, then a full year in low-A ball, even if he repeats a year in low-A for some reason (injuries) he would be 21 in A+ ball.

Most of the best talent should be through A+ by the time they are 23, but a few for whatever reason may still be there, which he acknowledges.

I am saying he is looking at the highest extreme of talent. I am looking at a typical prospect. Waring is a fringe guy but he has not shown any trouble adjusting to each level, so why discount him just because the organization didn't push him further? He could jump from AA next year to AAA and be 24 years old in AAA. He could even make the leap to the majors should he be excelling, but that would be beyond expectations... even the leap to AAA probably would be.

18 year old high school kid spends 3 years in the minors and could very well be in Adv A ball: this I agree. 22 year old college hitter drafted in the 13th round that started out in low A his half year gets started in A or Adv A the next unless he was obliterating the competition. There, he is 23 years old. It doesn't mean he can't keep progressing, but he has to deal with people talking about him being old.

There are several types of avenues to take and discounting players because they are born in January as opposed to November of the same year is irresponsible. If Waring was born in November, he would be 22 and below the average age and we wouldn't be talking about this. It's an unnecessary argument against a player, but I see it all over this board. This is why I speak up, and I am very knowledgeable of the game too (though I do respect the knowledge of those who have more experience than me, but I am not afraid to contradict them).

[Mackus]

Waring is no blue chip prospect but has enough redeeming qualities to be considered a possible/fringe prospect who could do well if he continues to improve at higher levels.

Sounds a lot like the pedigree of Brad Bergesen a year-and-a-half to two years ago. Hell the OH still had him listed as the 19th best prospect in the system coming into this season!

Someone who if things break really nicely, could be a nice piece. Odds are against him, but it certainly isn't impossible.

[TheBandit]

Sounds a lot like the pedigree of Brad Bergesen a year-and-a-half to two years ago. Hell the OH still had him listed as the 19th best prospect in the system coming into this season!

Someone who if things break really nicely, could be a nice piece. Odds are against him, but it certainly isn't impossible.

Exactly, if he continues to hit like he is at the higher levels or better, he will be a threat to the major league roster.

[allstar1579]

I am saying he is looking at the highest extreme of talent. I am looking at a typical prospect. Waring is a fringe guy but he has not shown any trouble adjusting to each level, so why discount him just because the organization didn't push him further? He could jump from AA next year to AAA and be 24 years old in AAA. He could even make the leap to the majors should he be excelling, but that would be beyond expectations... even the leap to AAA probably would be.

18 year old high school kid spends 3 years in the minors and could very well be in Adv A ball: this I agree. 22 year old college hitter drafted in the 13th round that started out in low A his half year gets started in A or Adv A the next unless he was obliterating the competition. There, he is 23 years old. It doesn't mean he can't keep progressing, but he has to deal with people talking about him being old.

There are several types of avenues to take and discounting players because they are born in January as opposed to November of the same year is irresponsible. If Waring was born in November, he would be 22 and below the average age and we wouldn't be talking about this. It's an unnecessary argument against a player, but I see it all over this board. This is why I speak up, and I am very knowledgeable of the game too (though I do respect the knowledge of those who have more experience than me, but I am not afraid to contradict them).

Oh don't take it personally, it was more a veiled shot at the recent masses, not to anyone in particular, I appreciate anyone willing to have a civilized discussion about something instead of reading 2 sentences and pouting...

I agree with you mostly, I like Waring as a prospect and would put him in my 10-12 range personally, I like the power potential and he makes good contact for a power guy. I do however agree that he should be putting up the numbers he is for his age, if he were doing worse, I'd be worried if you could call him a prospect going forward.

If you have an older college kid, 22 let's say, when he's drafted his position should figure into things. If he's just absolutely killing the ball, he should go higher than that, if he's just putting up ok numbers and going in the later rounds he'd probably go later. I think Crancer is a good example of a guy in the 12th round-ish range that probably went a teeny bit higher than he should have because of playing with MW at GT. If he gets drafted at 22 and doesn't sign until late, you have another problem on your hands, but that's another discussion for another day, say he doesn't play that season, comes back and just starts out the next season at high A ball. But like I said, strange circumstances happen, but that is far from the norm. A college kid that is 22 being drafted that far down probably starts in low A or SS ball because he isn't so much a prospect as a "tools" guy, and would be a fringy prospect like Waring.

Still just to be clear, I like Waring as a prospect, and I think he should have been in AA for this half of the season before getting a good look in ST next year.

[allstar1579]

Yeah but Bergesen is 23 and already in the majors.

Yeah but he really flew when he got a bit higher. He was 22 in AA ball remember, and then had a good ST to follow a good AA season. If Waring would have been in AA this season and then had a good ST you might have seen him get consideration for 3B (if we didn't add anyone). Staying at A+ might slow him a bit, but for a guy that's not a blue chip guy, you just hope they continue to produce on their way up.

[TheBandit]

Still just to be clear, I like Waring as a prospect, and I think he should have been in AA for this half of the season before getting a good look in ST next year.

I agree with what you said, and I wasn't trying to take anything personally just more clarifying. I like Waring as well, but he is behind Bell and Snyder as far as CI prospects go. The power is there and the improved plate discipline is what he needed. I think he wasn't promoted because he was doing well Frederick and the Orioles wanted him to get a solid season in before possibly pushing him the following year. I think you'll see him in AA next year and move to AAA if he starts off hot. That seems to be the MO for the Orioles minor league development now: one full year of solid play and the next year has the accelerator.

[Big Mac]

Waring so far today (8/11):

1-1 with a 3 run HR (21) and a BB.

He's been a monster this year, I'm very anxious to see how he performs at Bowie.